NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread: Back the Underdogs in Primetime, Chiefs Vulnerable?

• Underdogs of 5.5 points or more are 9-1 ATS after two weeks

• The Chiefs have to adapt to injuries and underperforming stars

• The Panthers gained a point on the spread after they benched Bryce Young

Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season includes a primetime rivalry matchup, several undefeated showdowns, a Monday night double-header, and much more.

The story of Week 2 was the sheer amount of underdogs that won outright. Those wins have vaulted several previously-unassuming players into the early MVP race, though there is still plenty of time left until the end of the season.

With that understanding in place, we’re here to share our favorite NFL Week 3 spread bets. Let’s jump into the picks.

NFL Week 3 Predictions and Odds

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Jets vs. Patriots - Sep. 19, 8:15 PM ET 

• Spread: Patriots +6 (-110), Jets -6 (-110)

• Moneyline: Patriots (+220), Jets (-275)

• Total: Over/under 38.5 (-110/-110)

The Jets didn’t have a chance against the 49ers and barely beat the Titans by one score. C.J. Mosley is questionable and Jermaine Johnson is out with an injury, which puts more pressure on an offense that has been geared toward running or throwing the ball to running backs. This team still has playoff expectations and should easily beat the Patriots if it is a serious contender.

New England played well in both games to start the season, going 1-1. Jacoby Brissett only has 270 passing yards and one touchdown in those two games, but the combination of Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson just combined for 177 yards and a TD on 32 attempts against Mike MacDonald and the Seahawks’ defense. They’ve found a way to keep the margins tight as long as they don’t turn the ball over and have got their defense playing well.

Rodgers’ reluctance to put air under the ball has severely handicapped his team thus far. It’s no surprise that his single best pass of the season came on a free play that led to a touchdown in Week 1. The Patriots’ offense is extremely limited and will look even worse if they can’t run the ball, but we don’t expect much from the Jets’ offense either.

Jets vs. Patriots pick: Patriots +6 (-110) at BetMGM

Browns vs. Giants - Sep. 22, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Giants +6.5 (-115), Browns -6.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Giants (+225), Browns (-275)

• Total: Over/under 38.5 (-110/-110)

Deshaun Watson didn’t throw an interception or lose a fumble, and the Browns won! They ran for 125 yards as a team and held the Jaguars to 13 total points and are well-established on their path to victory. Unfortunately for them, they’ll need chunk plays to cover a line of this size, which is far from a guarantee.

The Giants became the first team in NFL history to score three touchdowns, not allow a touchdown, and lose in regulation after their 21-18 loss to the Commanders. Malik Nabers looks like a total stud, but Daniel Jones can’t make big-time throws, and their defense isn’t good enough outside of the front line to warrant any praise. Similar to Cleveland, one turnover by their quarterback significantly hinders their ability to win any game on their schedule.

Both teams might be in precarious positions, but the Browns have more to bank on thanks to their running game, Myles Garrett, and other members of their defense. The Giants have been thoroughly outplayed by a career backup (Sam Darnold) and a rookie (Jayden Daniels) and shouldn’t be the source of optimism anywhere… which is why it’s so tough to say that we’re looking at the Giants to cover in a low-scoring game just because of the value of every point.

Browns vs. Giants pick: Giants +6.5 (-115) at BetMGM

Titans vs. Packers - Sep. 22, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Titans -3 (-105), Packers +3 (-115)

• Moneyline: Titans (-155), Packers (+130)

• Total: Over/under 36.5 (-110/-110)

The Malik Willis Bowl is in full swing! The Titans will roll out the NFL’s meme-maker of 2024, Will Levis, who has two touchdowns and three interceptions and ranks 28th in QBR after two games. Tennessee allowed the fewest yards per play in the entire league and will have to rely on its defense until Levis improves or, at the very least, breaks his turnover habit.

As mentioned, Malik Willis is in line to get the start for the Packers. He does not appear capable of throwing the ball, though that won’t matter if the Packers run the ball the same way they did last week, which resulted in them recording the third-most first-half rushing yards of any game this century. The Packers’ defense also grabbed five interceptions in two games and looks ready for a deep playoff run.

The Titans’ yards-per-play numbers are impressive, but that won’t matter if they fall behind and turn the ball over against a defense that is hungry for takeaways. Keep an eye on which team wins the battle at the line of scrimmage and if the Titans can force the Packers into third-and-long to keep them out of their running game. 

Titans vs. Packers pick: Titans -3 (-105) at BetMGM

Colts vs. Bears - Sep. 22, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Colts -1 (-110), Bears +1 (-110)

• Moneyline: Colts (-120), Bears (+100)

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

Anthony Richardson is 26-53 (49.1 completion percentage) with three touchdowns and four interceptions through two games. The Colts’ number-one receiver, Michael Pittman Jr., has 52 yards, and Jonathan Taylor only has one “big run.” The potency of the Colts’ offense appears to have been greatly overstated, and they find themselves in a serious hole given how thin their defense is, particularly on the back end.

Caleb Williams still has not scored a touchdown in the NFL and will find it very hard to do so if his offensive line cannot protect him the way they haven’t thus far. Chicago’s defense has played extremely well, however, which is a source of optimism if they can figure out their play-calling and how to make Williams feel more comfortable in the pocket.

The Richardson experiment is quickly running its course because of his inability to go through his progressions and nail open targets. Williams has not impressed much at all, but his defense is the best unit on the field, and his team has already won a game. We like the Bears to go on the road and cover in what is essentially a pick’em.

Colts vs. Bears pick: Bears +1 (-110) at BetMGM

Vikings vs. Texans - Sep. 22, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Vikings +2.5 (-105), Texans -2.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Vikings (+120), Texans (-145)

• Total: Over/under 46 (-110/-110)

The 2024 NFL MVP winner—sorry, Sam Darnold, is fourth in QBR and just helped lead a 23-17 upset win at home against the San Francisco 49ers without Justin Jefferson (for a half), Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. Brian Flores also pitched a masterclass of a game and stifled the Niners’ attack, which is a great sign ahead of a showdown with the prolific Houston Texans.

Houston snatched two interceptions off of Caleb Williams and cruised to a win despite only scoring three second-half points against the Bears. C.J. Stroud made numerous highlight plays and is quickly proving that his rookie year wasn’t a fluke, while the Houston defense is eighth in yards per play allowed and ninth in defensive EPA per play. Both of those are more than enough for this team to contend for the first seed in the AFC. 

Kevin O’Connell and Minnesota’s coaching staff deserve endless credit for their ability to adapt to a new quarterback and to overcome numerous injuries. All that said, Houston’s plethora of playmakers, elite quarterback/coach combo, and improved defense have them looking like the best team in the conference. We can see this game flying over its total, but we like the Texans to cover.

Vikings vs. Texans pick: Texans -2.5 (-115) at BetMGM

Saints vs. Eagles - Sep. 22, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Saints -3 (-105), Eagles +3 (-115)

• Moneyline: Saints (-155), Eagles (+130)

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-115/-105)

The Saints are the NFL’s highest-scoring team, averaging 45.5 points through two games. Not only that, they’re fourth in points and fifth in yards allowed per play, which is why they blew out both of their first two opponents (Carolina and Dallas). There’s likely to be a regression from Derek Carr and company, but the new play-action-heavy system has paid dividends and is forcing us to rethink our expectations for the team.

The Eagles have a nice win on their schedule beating the Packers, but their rebuilt secondary still has questions, and the defensive line has severely underperformed expectations. Jalen Hurts is making plays for both teams and they haven’t kicked their late-game struggles, which leaves their status as Super Bowl contenders in question. 

The Saints are arguably the best team in the NFL right now,  but we can’t help but suspect that some regression will come for them. Philly just suffered a heartbreaking loss and is on a short week before a road game, all of which are reasons to take the Saints… but we’re doing the opposite and holding out for Philly’s talent to shine through.

Saints vs. Eagles pick: Eagles +3 (-115) at BetMGM

Steelers vs. Chargers - Sep. 22, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Steelers -1.5 (-110), Chargers +1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Steelers (-125), Chargers (+105)

• Total: Over/under 35.5 (-110/-110)

Justin Fields is 2-0, completed 70 percent of his passes, and hasn’t turned the ball over. His raw yardage might not impress, but he hasn’t needed to take unnecessary risks with the teams he’s faced and with the defense he has on the other side of the ball. Pittsburgh ranks third in defensive EPA/play and second in points allowed per game and is, yet again, a major reason this team is winning football games.

Fittingly, the Chargers top the charts in defensive EPA/play and points allowed per game (6.5). Jim Harbaugh did not take long to implement his run-heavy, defensive style of football, and also has his team off to a 2-0 start. Justin Herbert isn’t having a great year but also isn’t being asked to do much and can be an ace up the sleeve in close games.

Bet the under! That’s our best advice for a game featuring arguably the league’s two best defenses, one quarterback who has struggled to produce in the past, and another who is limited by his coach’s offensive scheme. We’ll take the Chargers to cover on account of how low we expect the final score to be, which raises the importance of every point… and because we trust their QB to make the late-game throws.

Steelers vs. Chargers pick: Chargers +1.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Buccaneers vs. Broncos - Sep. 22, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Buccaneers -7 (-105), Broncos +7 (-115)

• Moneyline: Buccaneers (-350), Broncos (+260)

• Total: Over/under 39.5 (-110/-110)

Is Baker Mayfield the leading NFL MVP candidate right now? He torched the Commanders in Week 1 and led a road upset victory over the Lions in Week 2, which puts him and the Bucs in a great spot heading home for a matchup with the winless Broncos. Tampa’s defense has done a nice job following the bend-don’t-break philosophy and will be able to pin its ears back against a struggling rookie QB.

Sean Payton is running the risk of losing his job with his quarterback decisions. He forced the Broncos to take on a record amount of dead cap money after they released Russell Wilson just to draft Bo Nix, who is in the Bryce Young ranks of worst quarterback in the league. Nix is 11-36 for 212 yards and has four interceptions on passes of more than five yards downfield, giving him the lowest completion percentage on such passes in 10 years. 

The Broncos held the Steelers to 13 points and still somehow didn’t score half of their points. Their defense is about to take on the clear-cut best offense it's faced this year, and Nix is extremely unlikely to go throw-for-throw with a confident Mayfield. We see this game ending in a blowout and love the Bucs.

Buccaneers vs. Broncos pick: Buccaneers -7 (-105) at BetMGM

Raiders vs. Panthers - Sep. 22, 4:05 PM ET 

• Spread: Raiders -5.5 (-110), Panthers +5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Raiders (-250), Panthers (+190)

• Total: Over/under 41 (-110/-110)

Antonio Pierce might not have much talent to work with, but he seems to get more out of his guys than any other coach in the league. The Raiders upset the Ravens on the road 26-23 last week despite only managing 27 total rushing yards and failing to win the turnover battle as Garnder Minshew is the only player in the NFL with at least 250 passing yards in every game. The Raiders rarely look appealing on paper, yet they regularly deliver no matter the odds.

There’s no bigger indictment of Bryce Young than the line moving from 6.5 to 5.5 and the total rising two points once the diminutive QB was benched for 36-year-old Andy Dalton. We expect to see more verticality from Carolina since Dalton dazzled in his only start last year (361 yards, two touchdowns), which will be a refreshing change for a Carolina squad that has +75000 odds to win the Super Bowl.

We would be ready to take the Raiders if Young was under center. Dalton’s impending start changes the calculus since he hasn’t played much recently and since it’s unclear how the team will respond to him. He produced a great performance when he was called upon last year, and we think he can keep his team in position to cover even if the Raiders win.

Raiders vs. Panthers pick: Panthers +5.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Seahawks vs. Dolphins - Sep. 22, 4:05 PM ET 

• Spread: Seahawks -4.5 (-110), Dolphins +4.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Seahawks (-210), Dolphins (+170)

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

Mike MacDonald is 2-0 as an NFL head coach with one-score wins over the Broncos and Patriots. While that’s not overwhelmingly impressive, winning is always better than losing. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb also seemed more comfortable orchestrating the passing attack in Week 2 as Geno Smith went 33/44 for 327 yards and a touchdown.

The Dolphins are in no-man’s land following the loss of Tua Tagovailoa to another head injury and with Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley under center. They have tremendous speed and skill at running back and receiver to make their new QB’s life easier, but the defense (25th in EPA per play allowed) hasn’t shown enough signs to make us believe it can shoulder a larger burden without the league’s leading passer under center.

The upcoming stretch is going to be important for a Dolphins team that already had problems beating teams with winning records. They luckily won’t face a team that made the playoffs in 2023 until they hit the road to face the Bills in Week 9, at which time Tagovailoa could possibly be back in action. That doesn’t change anything for this week though, as we’re riding with the road favorites.

Seahawks vs. Dolphins pick: Seahawks -4.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Cowboys vs. Ravens - Sep. 22, 4:25 PM ET 

• Spread: Cowboys +1.5 (-110), Ravens -1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cowboys (+105), Ravens (-125)

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

The Cowboys’ struggles to defend the run have continued into the new season and are a glaring concern with the Raven coming into town. Dallas ranks dead last in EPA per play on rush attempts and, more importantly, can’t utilize its strengths rushing the passer if it can’t force teams to throw the ball. Dak Prescott also needs someone not named CeeDee Lamb to emerge as a viable receiving threat since the running back committee is one of the NFL’s worst.

The Ravens are 0-2 and sorely miss Patrick Queen, Mike MacDonald, Geno Stone, three members of their offensive line, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and many others who were on their team just a year ago. Lamar Jackson played decently but not great in his first two games and needs to put on the cape to avoid falling to a perilous 0-3 with games against the Bills and Bengals approaching in the next two weeks.

We don’t see a way in which Dallas wins this game if they can’t stop the run in key moments. We don’t want to judge them off of one horrible performance, but Baltimore, despite its record, has still seemed like the more imposing and physical team. We like the visitors to grab a win in Jerry World.

Cowboys vs. Ravens pick: Ravens -1.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Rams vs. 49ers - Sep. 22, 4:25 PM ET 

• Spread: Rams +7.5 (-115), 49ers -7.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Rams (+280), 49ers (-350)

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

What did the Rams do to offend the injury gods? They lost Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, four offensive linemen, and numerous members of their defense to injuries which, at 0-2, is already enough reason to expect them to miss the playoffs. Kyren Williams also leads the league in rushing attempts among players without a run beyond 10 yards, and they just lost 41-10 to the Cardinals.

Brock Purdy is about to have a month or so during which he can prove why the 49ers should reward him with a big contract. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are both injured, and the team is reeling from a road loss to the Vikings. Purdy and company’s ability to respond at home will go a long way to telling the story of their season.

The absence of several game-changing players on the Rams’ side of the football makes it hard to look at them to cover, especially after a 31-point loss to a division rival. San Francisco typically responds to poor performances with great games, and we’re expecting them to blow an injury-ridden Rams team off of the field. 

Rams vs. 49ers pick: 49ers -7.5 (-105) at BetMGM

Cardinals vs. Lions - Sep. 22, 4:25 PM ET 

• Spread: Cardinals +3 (-115), Lions -3 (-105)

• Moneyline: Cardinals (+125), Lions (-155)

• Total: Over/under 52.5 (-110/-110)

Two games and two impressive performances from the Cardinals. They opened their season by scoring 28 points on the road in Buffalo and then smacked the Rams 41-10 as Marvin Harrison Jr. announced his arrival in the NFL and the defense gave up just 245 yards of total offense. Their defensive personnel is limited, but Kyler Murray is playing some of the best football of his career.

The Lions got a wake-up call from the Buccaneers in a 20-16 loss last weekend, a game in which Jared Goff threw two interceptions and they needed a fake punt fourth-down conversion to hang in the balance. The offense can move the ball, but their secondary doesn’t look overwhelmingly different than it did last year (based on performances, not personnel).

One of the key matchups in this game will be Aidan Hutchinson against the Cardinals’ offensive line. The Lions’ edge-rusher leads the league with 5.5 sacks and will have fun chasing the mobile Murray who, again, is playing great football. As impressive as Arizona’s start has been, we still expect Detroit to find a way to win and cover on the road.

Cardinals vs. Lions pick: Lions -3 (-105) at BetMGM

Falcons vs. Chiefs - Sep. 22, 8:20 PM ET 

• Spread: Falcons +3.5 (-110), Chiefs -3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Falcons (+155), Chiefs (-190)

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

Kirk Cousins has not played great football but showed up when it mattered the most, leading a sub-two-minute, fourth-quarter comeback against the Eagles on Monday Night Football. Atlanta’s running game generated nearly five yards per carry, and the defense made numerous impressive stands in its first two games. This team has tons of potential and should get better as Cousins gets more comfortable in the pocket.

The Chiefs aren’t a team to worry about personnel changes, but there are still signs of a potential decline. “Hollywood” Brown is likely out for the year, Isaiah Pacheco was lost for a couple of months last week, and Travis Kelce only has four receptions for 39 yards in two games. Patrick Mahomes also just played potentially the worst game of his regular-season career, which puts them on uneven ground heading into Week 3.

We like the Falcons to steal a cover here. Despite Cousins being gun-shy, the Chiefs are going to need time to adjust to the loss of Pacheco and Kelce’s sharp decline. We’d still favor KC to find a way to win, though an upset is certainly possible given underdogs’ success thus far.

Falcons vs. Chiefs pick: Falcons +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Bills vs. Jaguars - Sep. 23, 7:30 PM ET 

• Spread: Bills -5.5 (-110), Jaguars +5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bills (-250), Jaguars (+200)

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

A Josh Allen that doesn’t throw interceptions is a very dangerous Josh Allen, as proven by the Bills’ performances down the stretch last year and through two weeks of 2024. The Buffalo QB is third in QBR and is responsible for five total touchdowns despite his leading receiver, Khalil Shakir, failing to hit 100 yards in two games. James Cook came up huge last game, and the defense is sixth in EPA per play allowed despite numerous injuries and player departures.

Everything is going wrong in Jacksonville. They lost games in every way possible and are 1-7 since December of last year, with their lone win coming against the woeful Panthers. Trevor Lawrence barely completed more than half of his passes and only has one touchdown, while nobody has run for 100 yards.

It’s a miracle that the Jags are 0-2 despite holding their opponents to 20 points or less in both games. The Bills are rolling and should be able to impose their physical will against a Jags team that doesn’t seem to like confrontation, especially in crucial moments. It won’t get easier for Jacksonville either with a game at Houston approaching in Week 4.

Bills vs. Jaguars pick: Bills -5.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Bengals vs. Commanders - Sep. 23, 8:15 PM ET 

Spread: Bengals -7.5 (-110), Commanders +7.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Bengals (-400), Commanders (+310)

Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

As expected, Joe Burrow and the Bengals looked like a team reborn in their showdown with the Chiefs last weekend, though they still came up short despite outplaying the defending champs throughout the entire game. Conventional logic would suggest that Cincy is “back” and ready to blow out the Commanders, but they have a history of playing both up and down to their competition. Ja’Marr Chase also doesn’t look anywhere near his usual self.

Jayden Daniels is about to get his first taste of primetime action in his young career. While he doesn’t have a passing touchdown, he’s also yet to turn the ball over, completed nearly 76 percent of his passes, and averaged 271 total yards per game. Washington’s defense is horrible and will likely surrender big plays through the air, but Daniels just led his team on seven scoring drives against the Giants last week.

The Bengals’ history of coming up short against inferior opponents combined with uncertainty surrounding Chase and Higgins is reason enough to look at Washington with the points. Underdogs of at least 5.5 points are also 9-1 against the spread after two weeks, and Daniels seems to be growing in confidence with time. Take Washington to cover in a loss.

Bengals vs. Commanders pick: Commanders +8.5 (-110) at BetMGM

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