The Titans are the worst team ATS in NFL history at 2-14
The Browns are a season-high 17.5-point underdogs to the Ravens
The Vikings and Lions were in the top four of best performers ATS
NFL Week 18 is always one of the trickiest times of the year, and we’re here to provide the best picks against the spread.
While some teams are fervently fighting for position or a berth in the playoffs, others are resigned to the imminent long offseason that will begin next Monday.
Whether your favorite team is already looking to the NFL Draft or is preparing for the NFL playoffs, here are our best Week 18 bets against the spread.
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Dorian Thompson-Robinson simply is not an NFL-level quarterback, and a battered and bruised team with nothing to play for seems totally checked out. Meanwhile, the Ravens need a win for playoff position and are getting much more security out of their pass defense. This feels like a situation in which the Ravens go up early and take their foot off the gas.
Joe Burrow is playing the best football of anyone in the league, but nobody aside from his receivers seem all that interested in helping him win games. The Steelers are desperate for a win after seeing their slump in form and given the still to-be-determined AFC Conference bracket. Mike Tomlin is the best coach against the spread as an underdog in NFL history, and it’s only fitting the Bengals come up short in an excruciating way yet again.
Bryce Young has been a top-half quarterback, if not better, since he came off of the bench. He and the Panthers will take on Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons, who took the Commanders to overtime but could not get off the field in crucial situations. Penix missed throws, so despite Atlanta’s excellent running game, going over a touchdown is too costly.
Jayden Daniels is playing like a top-five quarterback and is doing enough to overcome the glaring weaknesses on both sides of the roster. The Cowboys beat the Commanders in Maryland a few weeks ago but were victims of explosive plays and appeared to give up last weekend against Philly. Washington wants to win to avoid the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs and should play with that level of intent.
When was the last time the Bears scored more than seven points in a half? They take on a Packers team that continues to bump its head against the dominant powers of the NFL, but that is clearly superior and can control the time of possession with its running game. Matt LaFleur will want this team to enter the postseason with confidence, and we like them to win big.
Jacksonville’s roster could definitely be better, but it held back-to-back opponents under 20 points and has a bonafide game-changer in Brian Thomas Jr. on the outside. The Colts’ defense pathetically allowed 45 points to the New York Giants in a must-win game last week, and Joe Flacco threw two more interceptions. Indy only has two wins by more than 5.5 points all year, and we’re not expecting that to change.
Who really knows what a Mitchell Trubisky-led team of backups is going to look like? Drake Maye and the Patriots have made plays but often lost games because of an overall talent deficit, one that won’t exist in this matchup. We like the Pats to win outright.
We’re not expecting Drew Lock to continue playing like the best quarterback in NFL history. It’s unclear which starters, if any, will play for Philly, but this is a deep team that plays with physicality and pride, especially given Saquon Barkley’s history in the Big Apple. Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee have both looked good enough to take advantage of this Giants' defense.
Spencer Rattler is as loose of a cannon as there is in the NFL right now, and New Orleans’ defense just got torched by the helpless Raiders. The Buccaneers want to enter the Raiders rolling and can be extremely explosive, but we don’t foresee them opening up the playbook enough to cover this massive line against a divisional opponent looking to play spoiler.
It's tough to tell whether C.J. Stroud’s regression is due to injuries at wide receiver or a simple decline in play, but he and an outstanding defense have still done enough to beat the league’s bottom-feeders. The Titans have shown that they can score points with Mason Rudolph, but they will also turn the ball over. Keep an eye on Houston’s defense to power them to a win and a cover.
Brock Purdy is playing for a contract, while just about every other member of the 49ers is injured or checked out. The Cardinals cannot make the playoffs but have young players that seem willing to play for Jonathan Gannon. There’s more spirit in Arizona, and that’s enough to earn our trust.
Carson Wentz is probably the best backup quarterback in the league, and Kansas City still has excellent play-callers. The Broncos let the Bengals hang around for too long last week and now need a win here, and while we expect them to get it, this line exaggerates their potential against well-coached teams.
It’s hard to find a coach more prepared for big moments than Jim Harbaugh, whose league-leading defense has stymied most teams without elite quarterbacks. The Raiders played well last week but were already blown out by the Chargers and should see the writing on the wall with Antonio Pierce rumored to be out as the team coach after the season. We’d take the Bolts.
Mike MacDonald and the Seahawks have the chance to demote the Rams to the fourth seed and to end their season on a high despite missing the playoffs. Matthew Stafford and company only scored 13 points in back-to-back weeks, but the LA defense, particularly its run front, has shown drastic improvement. We’d expect a back-and-forth battle that ends with the Rams on top.
Serious questions need to be asked of Mike McDaniel, whose offense fell off a cliff this year and who could not survive injuries, cold weather, or strong opponents. A similar situation is playing out in New York, where Aaron Rodgers is a walking bear trap for his own teammates, many of which look like they’d be happier in a new home. We’d lean toward the Jets, but that’s not a compliment.
Minnesota has been outstanding on both sides of the ball all season and is healthier. Detroit gets up for opponents and is willing to take as many risks as it deems necessary, but its piling injuries have also caused the defense to show noticeable regression. The winner will win the NFC North and the first seed in the playoffs, and we expect that team to be the Vikings.
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Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.
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