There are many matchups between teams projected to make the playoffs in Week 16
The 2024 NFL season is coming down to the wire, and games are tougher to call with every passing week.
The Buffalo Bills scored the biggest win of the season on Sunday, taking down the Detroit Lions 48-42 on the road. The win catapulted them into first place in Super Bowl odds, while Detroit is suddenly dealing with an injury crisis.
Week 16 does not have its shortage of marquee matchups across the league, whether it be the Houston Texans visiting the Kansas City Chiefs, the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, or a number of other bouts in both conferences.
With everything still to play for, here are our best bets against the spread for NFL Week 16.
Picks ATS 2024 NFL Stats
Last week was a step in the right direction and continued are winning stretch following the first month of the season, but we’re still waiting to break back above .500.
This week’s matchups have some excellent matchups, and we’re confident in our picks. Let’s lock in for the final week of the season!
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The Broncos are the online dating profile of the NFL. It looks nice at first glance, but there are more red flags the closer to it you get. Denver won four straight games and scored a crucial win for playoff reasons against the Colts last week, but rookie QB Bo Nix has random bursts of terrible play or, in the case of last week, three interceptions and 3.9 yards per attempt.
The Chargers looked like a lock for the playoffs, but they lost three of their last four games and just gave up 40 points at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Justin Herbert passes the eye test with flying colors but has a severe lack of weapons around him, and LA’s inability to eat the clock with its running game is proving to be an issue.
Denver’s defense was outstanding for most of the year, but Nix’s sporadic play is a major concern, especially once the one-and-done nature of the playoffs arrives. Denver has been excellent against the spread, but we don’t expect Jim Harbaugh to roll over and give up on the season—especially one week after his defense was embarrassed.
C.J. Stroud’s courteous sophomore season continued last week as he only threw for 131 yards, albeit with two touchdowns in a 20-12 win over the Dolphins. Houston’s defense has quietly been outstanding, ranking second in success rate and third in EPA per play, which are both more than enough to win games if the offense wakes up.
Patrick Mahomes injured his ankle in a comfortable win over the Browns last week, during which he threw for 159 yards and two touchdowns, and Jameis Winston tossed three interceptions. KC’s defense woke up in recent weeks, but the offense still isn’t prolific, and Mahomes will either be banged up or absent.
This feels like the general time of the year that the Chiefs would lose a game, particularly with Mahomes’ injury. The Texans’ defense has been great and completely stifled a hot Dolphins team last week, and we like them to stand up to the power of the conference.
The Steelers had no answers for the downfield passing of Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles last week, although they held Lamar Jackson to 207 yards, a touchdown, and a pick in their meeting earlier this season. The absence of George Pickens caused Russell Wilson’s production to fall off a cliff, and T.J. Watt will either be banged up or out due to an injury he suffered last Sunday.
The Ravens steamrolled an inferior New York Giants team but have struggled in their biggest matchups of the year, whether that be against division rivals, in primetime, or against the Chiefs. Derrick Henry hasn’t been dominant like he was during the middle of the season, but Jackson was breathtaking last weekend.
The Steelers usually have answers for Jackson and should lean into the small details of the game such as clock control and third-down efficiency with Pickens out and Watt injured. Mike Tomlin is the best coach in NFL history as an underdog, and this is a huge (and disrespectful) line.
The Giants are truly, truly terrible. They’re injured beyond belief and were at a significant talent disadvantage before that, and they could have to start Tim Boyle on Sunday. No further comment.
Kirk Cousins is close to playing himself out of a starting job next year as he only went 11/17 for 112 yards, a touchdown, and an interception last week in the Falcons’ 15-9 win over the Raiders. Their defense nearly gave that game away but, to its credit, came up with a couple of late stops.
The Falcons are a better team than the Giants. Every team in the NFL is better than the Giants as presently constructed. It’s dangerous territory considering Atlanta is on a short week of rest and is on the road, but we would still lay the 10 points with them on account of how terrible the Giants—who lose nine straight games—truly are.
The Pats and Drake Maye might have shown promising signs for the future at different points of their season, but they lost four straight games and 11 of their last 13. Christian Gonzalez is a star on defense, but they turn the ball over a ton and can’t get stops, plus the jury is still out on coach Jerod Mayo.
Fresh off the back of scoring 48 points in a win over the Lions, NFL MVP favorite Josh Allen and company will welcome their AFC East rivals into their building. Allen was unfathomably great over the past month, but the team now needs to fight the natural complacency that could creep in after a huge win.
The Bills have every reason in the world to be excited by their win last weekend, although that won’t help them on Sunday. We’d view this as a let-down spot in years past, but Allen’s consistency this season gives us enough confidence to lay the points once again.
This was always the concern with the Lions’ incessant stat-padding at the end of blowout wins… they now find themselves as the most injury-riddled team in the league, and many of those injuries are to star players. Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness also likely cost his team a shot at a win last weekend, and only Jared Goff, who was marvelous in the loss, enters the new week with serious momentum behind him.
It’s hard to remember a team that consistently wasted more halves than the Bears. Caleb Williams is the first quarterback in NFL history to lose eight straight games despite not throwing an interception during any of those games, but he holds onto the ball far too long and is shockingly tentative to put any air under his passes early in games.
We’ve taken the Bears far more than we should’ve. The Lions are bruised and battered beyond belief, but they are still significantly better than the Bears. However, they have to go on the road and face the bitter elements of the Chicago winter, so we will begrudgingly take the Bears.
Jameis Winston’s spirited run as the Browns’ savior could be coming to an end as he threw three interceptions and no touchdowns in their 7-21 loss to the Chiefs. The defense only held one of its last 12 opponents under 20 points, and they just lost Nick Chubb to a broken foot.
Joe Burrow is still playing at an MVP level, and the Bengals are finally winning games… but the overall performances are still fairly ugly, and this team is in need of a major shake-up during the offseason. The question is which members of the team and coaching staff will return in 2025,
We can’t bring ourselves to back the Browns in their current state and without Chubb in the lineup, no matter how bad the Bengals’ defense is. Cleveland can’t get stops and is surviving on reputation at this point, and they already lost by seven to the Bengals at home earlier in the year.
The Titans benched Will Levis once again in a move that could signal their desire to part ways with the former second-round pick in his second professional season. They do a nice job defending against the run but are also wildly inconsistent on the defensive side week-to-week, though it’s worth noting that the offense has more juice with Mason Rudolph under center.
Anthony Richardson, please figure it out. He has so much potential but makes awful decisions and is incredibly accurate with the football, meaning that he has some of the lowest lows in the league. Even average play from him would be passable since Indy’s defense is, shockingly, fifth in net EPA per play over the last two months.
The Colts won the first meeting between the two teams in Tennessee 20-17 early in the season. They are more than 4.5 points better than the Titans in general, but they won’t be if Richardson is going to continue turning the ball over at an alarming rate. This could go either way but sets up better for the visitors.
The Rams are hot, having won even of their last nine games and scored 44 points on the Buffalo Bills during their latest three-game winning streak. Their young defense came of age and is playing at an impressive level, while Matthew Stafford has continued to deliver whenever he shares the field with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
How tortuous the Jets are to their fans. As soon as they were eliminated from playoff contention, Aaron Rodgers played his best game in his New York career, Davante Adams recorded the second-most single-game receiving yards of his career, and Sauce Gardner grabbed his first interception since he was a rookie. This team is awful and crumbles the moment it has to deal with expectations.
Who cares if the Rams have to go on the road, they're much better than the Jets, have more to play for, and have been much more successful against the spread. LA is a dangerous team heading into the playoffs and is in a great spot to earn a win and cover against the 4-10 Jets.
Jalen Hurts torched the Steelers’ excellent defense last week and at least briefly, calmed the storm surrounding his relationship with A.J. Brown. Saquon Barkley was quiet on the day but went for 146 yards and two touchdowns the last time Philly played Washington, while their defense allowed the joint-fewest points per game (17.6) and gave up 18 to the Commanders in their Nov. 14 bout.
Jayden Daniels isn’t dealing with a rib injury like he was when he faced Philly for the first time, and he was awesome in last weekend’s narrow 20-19 escape against the Saints. Washington’s passing game took a bunch of shots down the field, while Marshon Lattimore was not targeted a single time in his Washington debut.
The biggest matchup in this game is Philly’s offensive line and running games against the Commanders’ front. Lattimore has a huge role to play in this game and can free up resources for Washington to commit to stopping the run, while nobody knows if Hurts will air the ball out again or revert to passively handing off to Barkley. Philly scored 20 fourth-quarter points in their reverse fixture, and we expect a closer finish this time around.
Who would’ve thought at the start of the year that the Cardinals would be in for a shot at the NFC West title? They shot themselves in the foot with three straight losses but got back in the win column last week and have a strong running game that should travel well on the road.
Bryce Young isn’t a star, but he’s playing with much more confidence than he did at any point in his career. The Panthers’ run defense is one of the worst in the league and allowed an average of .064 more points per play than expected, which could spell trouble against an Arizona team that is seventh in rushing yards per game.
Young looks better, but he still only has one multi-touchdown game all season (two months ago) and threw three interceptions in his last two games. The Cardinals are only 2-4 on the road, but they are getting a shot at what could be the worst defense in the league with their playoff dreams on the line.
Sam Darnold probably doesn’t have it in him to win a Super Bowl… but boy, is that a change in opinion from this time last year, when many believed he didn’t even belong in the NFL. The Vikings are fourth in scoring defense and eighth in scoring offense, won seven straight games, and are 5-1 on the road. They also might be the most well-coached team in the league.
Geno Smith is banged up and was not a difference-maker over the past five weeks, totaling three touchdowns and three interceptions. The Seahawks went 4-1 during that time despite that, largely because their defense was fourth in EPA per play during that time. Zach Charbonnet also had a couple of nice games recently, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba blossomed into the primary receiving option.
Considering this game will be outdoors in Seattle, this has the makings of a great matchup, and one that goes wire-to-wire. Mike MacDonald is a great defensive mind and could coax Darnold into making mistakes, but Smith’s injury combined with the Vikings’ consistency means that the favorites are the favorites for a reason.
The Patriots said they are committed to Jerod Mayo as head coach—while it’d be unfair to blame him for the team’s struggles, he has not done anything to suggest that he has the tactical savvy to win his team games on account of his decisions and schematics. Drake Maye has been up and down and completed more than 80 percent of his passes in back-to-back weeks, but the defense can’t get stops.
Buffalo is riding as high as it gets after its 48-42 road victory over the Lions a week ago. Josh Allen has been spectacular for a month straight, though the defense surrendered 44 and 42 points in consecutive weeks. This is also the first time they will see the Patriots, who they also play in Week 18.
Buffalo is in the most obvious spot there is for an emotional letdown given its recent success and momentous win last week. This game will also be played in an estimated 19 degrees, which suggests this will be a low-scoring affair, thereby making it harder for the favorite to cover a large spread.
With the College Football Playoff approaching, it’s only right we dub this matchup the “Trash Bowl.” These are two of the worst teams in the league, not just in overall roster composition, but at quarterback and head coach as well. There’s no point in even diving into the breakdown of each team because there’s basically nothing impressive about either one of them.
The Raiders are at home, but Desmond Ridder is simply terrible. Betting on Mac Jones is never fun, but the Jags are slightly, slightly, slightly better.
Neither one of these teams is expected to make the playoffs, which is a change for both. The Niners only managed six points in their last outing but do have 10 days of rest between matchups, which will work to their benefit given their recent struggles on the field and in the locker room.
The Dolphins’ offense hit a pothole last weekend as Tua Tagovailoa threw one touchdown and three interceptions in a 20-12 loss to the Texans. The defense is unexpectedly ahead of the Niners in EPA per play but also gave up 30+ points in consecutive weeks prior to last Sunday’s matchup.
Both of these teams have serious problems. For the Niners, their piling injuries and chemistry issues made it so they are likely to miss the postseason despite being in the Super Bowl last year, while the Dolphins’ offense has not hit the same heights it did last year and breaks down as soon as it is off schedule. Knowing this could be a low-grade matchup, we like the talent of the Niners to shine through.
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are truly relentless. They shrugged off a variety of injuries to move into first place in the NFC South and, crucially, saw their pass defense perform well in the last two weeks after it was a liability all season. Rookie running back Bucky Irving has also been a revelation and added balance to an offense that couldn’t run the ball for the past three years.
Cooper Rush has actually been solid whenever he was asked to step into the lineup, throwing 10 touchdowns and three interceptions, including three TDs and no picks in last week’s win over the Panthers. Rico Dowdle is also producing at an elite level out of nowhere, and Micah Parson’s palpable passion has kept the defense focused even amidst the team’s struggles.
Dallas will not be in the playoffs and still has a ton of questions to answer, but we’re not opposed to them being competitive in this matchup. The problem is that they are just 1-6 in their building, while the Bucs are 5-2 on the road and thrive as an underdog.
The Saints seem to have the highest floor and ceiling when Spencer Rattler is under center. The rookie from South Carolina takes a ton of chances down the field, but sometimes they will result in New Orleans taking a game to the final play like it did against the Commanders last weekend. It’s also worth noting that they have been strong against the run in recent weeks despite ranking 30th in yards allowed per attempt for the year.
The formula is simple: if Jordan Love doesn’t throw an interception, the Packers win. They are 3-1 with a lone loss to the Lions when he doesn’t throw an INT and 5-3 when he does, so his ball security is paramount. Luckily, Josh Jacobs has been excellent as of late, and the defense held four straight teams not named the Lions below 20 points.
Despite Love’s interception habit, the Packers are fifth in turnover differential per game. That will be a huge factor in this game if Rattler plays considering his recklessness with the football, and it’s why we’d be willing to lay that many points with a team that is fighting to get out of third in its division.
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Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.
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