The Broncos are the NFL’s new best league ATS at 10-3
The Panthers covered in four straight weeks
The Jets are the first team to be 3-9 ATS after being favored in at least nine of their first 12 games
The NFL is entering the final stage of its regular season and is just over a month away from crossing into the highly-coveted and highly-awaited playoffs. As teams around the league gear up for another push at the postseason, we’ve made our picks against the spread for every game.
The Carolina Panthers stayed hot against the spread, while the New York Jets became the first team in NFL history to go 3-9 ATS after being favored in at least nine of their first 12 games.
For more stats, analysis, and predictions, let’s jump into our NFL Week 14 best bets against the spread.
Picks ATS 2024 NFL Stats
We promised to get back in the green last week, and that’s exactly what we did. Unfortunately, it wasn’t by as much as we wanted, but we’re still on a solid pace following a tumultuous first month of the season.
Time is running out, and it’s time to step up. These picks are going to help us do just that!
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Playing on Thursday is often a disadvantage for both teams, especially the road team, but the Packers are rolling after their 30-17 win against the Miami Dolphins on Thanksgiving and have a full week of rest behind them. They held three straight opponents under 20 points and only allowed the Lions to score 24 when they met a month ago, which is extremely promising with how potent their offense can be.
The Lions got a little cute with the Chicago Bears and almost blew an enormous lead last Thursday, but they held on for a 23-20 lead. As we say every week, they are extremely well-balanced, control the point of attack, and often dominate the time of possession. What makes them even more impressive is their league-leading offense is backed by a defense that ranks second in net EPA per play.
The Lions beat the Packers by 10 points and only surrendered 14 points when they last met. Jordan Love played consecutive weeks of clean football but has a tall task ahead of him trying to hold onto the ball while also needing to take chances and score points against a confident team that is flying high and playing at home. Detroit’s luck against the spread at home will run out eventually, but we’d look their way here.
Trevor Lawrence is expected to miss this game, which puts Mac Jones in a good position to start. Jones was shockingly impressive filling in for the injured Lawrence in a close loss to the Houston Texans but still isn’t a great option, and Jacksonville’s defense is the least-efficient in all of football. The Jags are also 0-6 on the road this season.
The Titans were annihilated by the Commanders last week and found themselves down 28-0 after less than 20 minutes, though two of those touchdowns were set up by fumbles on the negative side of the field. Will Levis quietly made some nice throws and was let down by his receivers and the team’s run defense, but the promise was still there.
Tennessee has mostly had a nice defense, particularly against the run. The Jags don’t want Jones to throw a ton of passes, and Levis looked competent and confident in the pocket last week. This could end up being a low-scoring game, but the home division rivals have our support.
As we mentioned in the introduction to our best NFL spread bets, the Jets have been historically awful from a betting perspective. They lost eight of their last nine games and threw away a 14-point first quarter lead in their last outing against the Seattle Seahawks, during which Aaron Rodgers significantly underperformed yet again. The Jets’ defense has been terrible for a couple of months and they can no longer save them when the offense doesn’t dominate.
Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins' offense struggled in the cold of Green Bay on Thanksgiving—who could have seen that coming? Now, they get to head back home to South Beach for a meeting with a division rival and with confidence after they scored at least 23 points in five straight games prior to last week’s loss. Miami’s defense has also stepped up recently and is playing better than NY’s.
We’ve been hard on the Jets all year, but it’s been justified. They are one of the least-profitable teams in the NFL and are flat-out not a good team… but only two of their eight recent losses came by more than one score. We’d take the Jets, but don’t take that as a sign that we believe they will turn their season around.
Kirk Cousins has zero touchdowns and six interceptions in his last three games and turned the ball over four times in his last games. Atlanta’s defensive personnel is solid and makes plays but also isn’t very stout, and they STILL haven’t found a way to weaponize Bijan Robinson the way other teams with top running backs have.
Boy, do the Vikings continue to fly under the radar despite continually proving themselves against nearly every opponent. Sam Darnold has a strange habit of playing poorly against lesser teams but showing up in big moments, while Brian Flores’ unrelenting defense has not slowed down one bit.
The Falcons should cover this line realistically, but it’s also hard to have faith in them doing that given Cousins’ recent run of form. We expect the Vikings to control the matchup, but we’d still lean toward the home team… assuming Cousins isn’t a double agent again.
The Saints lost coming out of their bye week last week, which is usually a sign of a poorly-coached team, one that is totally bereft of talent, or one that has just given up. Derek Carr has some explosive throws but isn’t regularly at a high level, though the defense put some impressive film together over the last month.
Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, who really cares? The Giants are floundering in the shadow of Saquon Barkley’s resounding success and have clear internal issues, as evidenced by recent postgame comments from Malik Nabers and Kayvon Thibodeaux. They get after the quarterback but don’t do anything else that well and are down to a backup quarterback.
We’ve (rightfully) been tough on the Saints all year, but even we’d be lying if we said that they weren’t a far more attractive pick here. The Giants are 28th in average scoring margin (-8.0) and did not get solid production from either one of Lock or DeVito.
Bryce Young is HERE! Through some serious mental resolve and a change in philosophy by coach Dave Canales, Young stacked three impressive performances and is why the Panthers are suddenly hot against the spread. The defense, particularly the run defense, is still awful, and was just torched by Bucky Irving last weekend, which is concerning given that…
Saquon Barkley is inevitable. The Philly back is second in NFL MVP odds and broke 100 rushing yards in six of his last seven games, including against the Ravens’ top-ranked rushing defense last weekend. And while the Panthers climbed to 19th in defensive EPA per play over the last month—which is impressive, given their usual standard—the Eagles were all the way up at second.
We want to reward Young’s improvement with continued faith in him and the Panthers against the spread, but that seems unfair to the Eagles. They dominate the trenches and have a player in Barkley who can not only control the clock, but who can score two, three, or four touchdowns in a hurry. Take the Birds at home.
Try to find a more Jameis Winston game than the one he just played against the Broncos.Filling in for Deshaun Watson, Winston went 34/58 for 497 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions (two pick-sixes) in a 41-32 primetime loss. Cleveland’s defense has not been good all year and will have trouble with Russell Wilson if he continues playing at his current level.
Speaking of Wilson, he’s been one of the best QBs in the league since he was inserted into the lineup. He racked up 414 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception in a 44-38 win against the Bengals last week to stay hot. Now, the Pittsburgh defense gets to relax against an offense that has looked inspired under Winston, but one that is 25th in giveaways per game.
The AFC North has a knack for beating up on itself. The Browns upset the Steelers at home in a snowy Thursday Night matchup a couple of weeks ago, but the Browns are on the road on a short week and facing a team that is playing its best offense in years. This is a horrible matchup for the underdogs.
No offense to Raiders fans, but your team doesn’t do anything good. They have the worst rushing attack in football, their constant quarterback limbo yielded nothing positive, the defense is 23rd in EPA per play, and the team lost eight straight games following a 2-2 start. This could easily become the landing spot for the first pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.
Say what you want about the Buccaneers’ ability to win games in the playoffs, but they are resilient and play tough. Baker Mayfield shrugged off an injury to help lead the team back in regulation and then again in overtime to stave off the Panthers last week, while the defense made several enormously impactful plays. The Bucs move the ball through the air very well and suddenly have a punch on the ground with Bucky Irving.
Vegas somehow finds itself in a bunch of close games but rarely ever wins them. We don’t love the pick here, but Tampa’s secondary is porous enough that even O’Connell could find some success and help the Raiders cover in a low-scoring, messy matchup.
The Seahawks are leading the NFC West in Mike MacDonald’s first year in charge of the team, which can only be a positive sign for the future. They’re also 4-1 on the road and won three straight games, which is even more impressive since Geno Smith only threw two touchdowns and two interceptions during that stretch.
Kyler Murray leads the NFL in QBR and nearly helped the Cardinals take down their 10-2 Vikings last week. Jonathan Gannon’s defense held its last six opponents to an average of 16 points, and with their ability to control the time of possession, that’s more than enough to win games.
This is a classic divisional battle for first place in the NFC West. The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 16-6 two weeks ago, though neither QB played well, and Arizona uncharacteristically abandoned the running game. We expect them to get back to their strengths at home and tie the division lead at 7-6.
Josh Allen is the MVP frontrunner but is under intense pressure from Saquon Barkley to sustain his level of dominance. Allen didn’t post amazing stats last weekend, but the Bills won seven straight games, with five of those coming by more than one score. Their defense also allowed the sixth-fewest points per game and ranks eighth in EPA per play.
The Rams’ season has been sabotaged by injuries thus far, but they still won five of their last seven games. Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams both had solid outings in last weekend’s 21-14 win over the New Orleans Saints, but their defense is only 24th in EPA per play.
The Bills are deserving favorites, but they have to fly across the country to face a team that theoretically can still make the playoffs. Josh Allen is leading the MVP race for a reason, but he could come under intense pressure from a QB in Stafford who can match him throw-for-throw. While the Bills are the better bet to win, the underdogs could be a sneaky bet here.
There’s been no consistency to Caleb Williams’ career thus far… but who can blame him with the decision-making of his former head coach, Matt Eberflus? Williams and the Bears should be in line to get the new-coach bounce now that Eberflus is out of the building, and Williams racked up 596 yards and five TDs over his last two games. The defense significantly regressed over the last month or so but has the potential to play at an elite level.
Brock Purdy is banged up and didn’t play well last week, the receivers aren’t performing, the defense isn’t the same, and both Chrisitan McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are injured. This is what happens when teams regularly have to make deep runs into the playoffs, and the current Niners are nothing like the team that took the field in seasons past. San Fran lost three games in a row, including their last two by an average of 26.5 points, so it’s hard to find many positives to talk about.
The upset is coming. The Niners are last in the NFC West and waiting to be put out of their misery, and the Bears should enter the matchup full of spirit and with a renewed outlook now that Eberflus is out of the building. We’re putting our stamp on this one and calling the upset.
Let’s break this down… the Chargers have the best defense in the NFL, but they also gave up 28.5 points per game against the Bengals and Ravens, the two strong offenses they faced after the first month of the season. More pressure is going to be placed on the shoulders of Justin Herbert now that J.K. Dobbins is injured, and although he only has 13 touchdowns thus far, he also only has one interception.
The Chiefs are 11-1 but keep scraping by the narrowest of margins. Patrick Mahomes looks much more comfortable with DeAndre Hopkins on his team, but the KC defense regressed from one of the two best in the NFL to totally average over the past six weeks. If there’s one thing to point to, it’s that they get extra rest since they played last Friday.
The Chargers are the team best positioned to disturb the AFC hierarchy among the not-obvious contenders. Jim Harbaugh is a gamer and will have his team ready to play this game, and the Chiefs’ defensive regression is seriously concerning. This feels like a close game that comes down to the wire.
What do we even make of this season from Joe Burrow? He played at an MVP level, but the Bengals are only 4-8 and allowed the second-most points per game (28.3) in the entire league. They also lost both of their primetime games against the Commanders (Week 3) and the Ravens (Week 10).
Credit where credit is due, the Cowboys have not given up on their season and are playing great defense. Cooper Rush is a typical “solid” backup that fluctuates from being a liability to having good games with little to no pattern, which makes predicting his performance difficult. Dallas is only 1-5 at home and still can’t run the ball to save their lives, but they could get back on track against one of the worst defenses in the league.
We’ve been burned by the Bengals plenty of times already, and we can’t let it happen again. The Cowboys are playing nice defense and should be able to score at least 20 points just off the back of Cincy being awful on defense, which puts them in position to cover.
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Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.
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