The Lions lead the league at 9-2 against the spread
The Commanders went from red-hot to struggling
The Panthers are suddenly an interesting underdog prospect
Week 13 in the 2024 NFL season is here, and we have the best bets against the spread for all of Thanksgiving Week action.
The Detroit Lions are a league-best 9-2 against the spread, while the Denver Broncos (9-3) and Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) are close behind. On the flip side, the Tennessee Titans (2-9) have the crown of the least profitable team in football despite their upset of the Houston Texans last Sunday.
Grab your turkey and stuffing. Here are the best NFL Week 13 picks against the spread.
Picks ATS 2024 NFL Stats
So, last week happened. We took a beating, and we will be better for it this week!
Talk is cheap. Let’s get the job done on Thanksgiving week!
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Caleb Williams played the best game of his pro career last Sunday, but it still wasn’t enough to end the team’s five-game losing streak or to escape from the humiliation of late-game defeats. Chicago seems incapable of producing strong offensive and defensive performances in the same game, while their head coach has never won a road game on a Sunday. All of that spells trouble against a division rival playing the best football in the league.
The Lions did not play anywhere near their best last week and still beat the Indianapolis Colts 24-6. They won nine straight games and lead the league in net EPA per play by a comfortable margin, making them the most efficient team in the league. They are yet to face the Bears but went 2-0 against the NFC North with a 31-29 win against the Minnesota Vikings and a 24-14 victory against the Green Bay Packers.
Detroit has the potential to blow out most teams in the league and never calls the dogs off, meaning that they will cover if they’re at all in position to. The question is if Williams can play at the level he did last week consistently, something he’s yet to prove in his young career. As great as Detroit is, they struggle to get opposing QBs on the ground, and that’s proven to be a weakness of Williams.
Tommy DeVito could not get the New York Giants’ offense going in his first start of the season during a 30-7 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Malik Nabers promptly called out his head coach in the postgame press conference, while it seemed as if the Giants’ defense didn’t show up to play at all on Sunday. Needless to say, the vibes are not great in the Big Apple.
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off of one of the wildest games in NFL history against the Washington Commanders, a game that produced 41 total fourth-quarter points and ended 34-26 in Dallas’ favor. Cooper Rush was outstanding, going 24/32 for 247 yards and two touchdowns, while the defense bottled up Jayden Daniels and Washington’s high-scoring offense. They aren’t good enough to play at the level consistently, but they now get to head home for Thanksgiving.
We simply cannot advise anyone to bet on this version of the Giants with DeVito under center. Their best player has been there for less than three months and seems to want out, and allowed seven of their last eight opponents to score at least 20 points. This is a prime opportunity to fade the G-Men on the road.
Are the Dolphins actually going to complete a run from irrelevance to the playoffs? They averaged 29 points per game since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup and are riding a three-game win streak, bringing them to eighth in the AFC standings and 1.5 games out of the final playoff spot. The defense is also 13th in EPA per play during the last five games, which is enough to survive with the offense playing at this level.
Break out the cake and candles, Jordan Love didn’t throw an interception for the first time all year in last week’s 38-10 domination of an injured San Francisco 49ers squad. The Packers are one of the most efficient running teams in football, have a strong-armed quarterback, and a defense that is tied for the league lead in takeaways per game.
This game is going to be played in an estimated 28 degrees on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field on Thursday night. Tagovailoa famously does not play well in cold weather, though he said in a press conference that he is ready to bring an end to the narrative. The team that plays the cleaner game will likely emerge as the victor, but Green Bay’s tendency to wind up in close games is enough for us to take the underdogs with the points.
Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell are both injured, which means it’s Desmond Ridder time in Vegas. Ridder has 20 total touchdowns and 12 interceptions in his career and averaged an uninspiring 189.1 passing yards per game during his 2023 season as the Atlanta Falcons’ starter, and he now takes over an offense that has the clear-cut worst running game in the league. Their defense also gives up the fourth-most points per game (28.5).
Do the Chiefs let teams hang around when they probably shouldn’t? Absolutely. But we’re not going to disrespect them by listing out all of the great things they do, or talk about how Patrick Mahomes has 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions since the team traded for Deandre Hopkins, or how they won 16 of their last 17 games… you get the point.
Ridder was one of the worst QBs in football when he had an elite running back (Bijan Robinson) next to him. Now, he gets a committee that averaged a deplorable 3.6 yards per carry. Take the Chiefs and don’t think twice.
The Chargers allowed the fewest points per game (15.9) but struggled when they faced top quarterbacks like Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. Justin Herbert’s lack of weapons will also be an issue in priority matchups no matter how impressive he’s been individually or how staunch the defense is. The biggest hindrance for LA is them having to fly to the East Coast after just playing a contender on Monday Night Football.
While the Chargers are getting a short week, the Falcons are coming off of a bye and know that they are in control of their playoff destiny. Kirk Cousins did not look great in recent weeks, but the long week combined with LA’s short week gives the Falcons a serious advantage, especially since they’re at home.
This is all about deciding if the Falcons will turn back into the team they were in the middle of the season, or if the Chargers’ defense will rise to the occasion. Derrick Henry had a field day running the ball on Monday, and Bijan Robinson is capable of doing the same. There’s a potential upset brewing in ATL.
The Steelers suffered their third loss of the season and the first in the Russell Wilson era against the Browns on the snow-capped field of Cleveland on Thursday Night Football. They get a nice 10-day rest as they prepare for Joe Burrow and a Bengals offense that has been fairly unstoppable but undercut by their woeful defense. Pittsburgh does a tremendous job taking the football away and shutting down most opponents and is more explosive with Wilson at QB.
As we mentioned, Joe Burrow is playing arguably the best football of his career, as are Ja’Marr Chase and Trey Hendrickson… but that hasn’t translated to wins, and the Bengals are just 4-7. They had a bye week last week and need to come out roaring, though Burrow averaged 2.2 touchdowns and 1.6 interceptions in five career games against the Steelers.
It’s a testament to the NFL world’s belief in the Bengals that they’re favored by 2.5 points against an 8-3 divisional opponent. Mike Tomlin is the best coach against the spread as an underdog, and the Bengals have been totally disappointing… but Burrow already carved up some of the best defenses in the NFL and, with a bit of luck, can do the same again.
The Cardinals blew their chance to take a two-game lead in the NFC West and now sit behind the Seattle Seahawks via tiebreaker. Kyler Murray took a break from his great play and had an off-week but still ranks fourth in QBR and has 16 total touchdowns to just four interceptions, while Jonathan Gannon’s defense held its last three opponents to an impressive average of just 10.3 points per game.
Kevin O’Connell might just be the best head coach in the NFL. His partnership with Brian Flores has allowed the Vikings to become one of the most well-rounded teams in the league, and they’re now riding a four-game win streak behind excellent play on both sides of the football. This will be the toughest team they faced in more than a month, but they already beat several contenders and were two points away from knocking off the seemingly unflappable Lions.
This has the makings of a game that is close with a backdoor cover for the Vikings via a late score. The question is if Murray can get the offense back on track against a hyper-aggressive defense that leads the league in EPA per play, or if Darnold will commit turnovers at the same rate he did earlier in the season. We believe one of those will happen and are willing to take the points with the Cards on the road.
It’s always hard to bet against the Colts, who at 8-4 have been one of the most profitable teams against the spread in the NFL. Anthony Richardson followed up his masterclass against the Jets with an ineffective and inefficient showing against the Colts, and it’s that type of inconsistency that is preventing him from becoming the sure-fire future of the Indianapolis franchise. The Colts’ defense did nice work against Detroit’s running game but was picked apart by the pass.
Drake Maye is exactly what a 22-year-old rookie quarterback should be: incredibly raw. He makes a ton of impressive throws but also throws head-scratching interceptions, putting his defense in positions from which they can’t recover. Jerod Mayo once again called out his team and deflected blame off of his back, which could have a resoundingly positive or negative impact on Sunday.
We’re unsure how Mayo’s comments will go over, and Maye is just as much of a turnover risk as Richardson. Shane Steichen is the best coach in the matchup, and the Colts have been much more successful against the spread. This pick writes itself.
Just like first-year players need time to settle in, so do first-time head coaches. That applied to Mike MacDonald, who seemingly lost control of his team following a solid start to the year—but to his credit, he helped the Seahawks bounce back with impressive back-to-back wins, the last of which was an important divisional win against the Cardinals. Geno Smith is still leading the league in passing, and the defense held the 49ers and Cardinals to 11.5 average points.
It’s increasingly apparent that very few, if any, people inside the Jets’ organization want Aaron Rodgers to continue starting under center. The scuttlebutt is that he could soon be placed on injured reserve despite being healthy, and his performances have resulted in him ranking a terrible 24th in QBR. The NY defense is also living off of reputation and is 26th in EPA per play since the first month of the season.
Let’s get this straight. We have a confident Seahawks team with a great offense against a hopeless Jets team that is led by a bottom-10 quarterback and a declining defense. Get past the brand bias and look at these teams for what they are, and it’s clear that the Seahawks are the much better team.
The underdog Titans covered the spread for just the second time last week in a surprising 32-27 victory over the Houston Texans. They forced C.J. Stroud into two interceptions and continued their standard of solid defense, while Will Levis and Tony Pollard both had strong days for what had been a fairly stagnant offense. It’s hard to count on the Titans’ offense in consecutive weeks, but they’re definitely playing better as of late.
What a roller coaster of emotions the Commanders have dealt with, whether it be moments of joy and despair, an unexpected winning start, or their current three-game losing streak. Jayden Daniels and the offense started slow three weeks in a row but continually showed their true potential in late-game scenarios, and it’s now on Kliff Kingsbury to get the offense humming from the onset. Marshon Lattimore could also make his Washington debut here.
While the Titans were impressive last week, it’s important not to fall victim to being a prisoner of the moment. They only covered twice all year, and the Commanders have a chance to activate a player who will instantly become their biggest asset on defense. We’d look at the Commanders to end their losing streak here.
Speaking of the Texans, it’s been a tough stretch for a team that started the year well. Stroud has entered his sophomore slump, and the defense isn’t playing at an elite level like it was earlier in the year. They’re still decidedly better than the Jags, but they’re running low on confidence.
Jacksonville took a much-needed bye week last week following four straight losses, the last of which was a 52-6 demolition at the hand of the Lions. Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. have been solid, but that’s pretty much where the list ends for Jaguars standouts. Doug Pederson is dangerously close to losing his job and needs to win to have a chance of remaining in charge.
There’s no question that the Texans are better than the Jags, but they only beat their rival by four points at home a month into the season and now have to go on the road after an embarrassing defeat to face a well-rested opponent. Even if the Texans find a way to win, the Jags have a strong chance to cover.
Matthew Stafford is still dealing, but the Rams failed miserably in their test of aptitude against another contender, the Eagles, on Sunday Night Football. They had no answers for Saquon Barkley despite showing recent improvements in their run defense andare one-dimensional on offense, even if that dimension is regularly one of the 10 best in the league.
New Orleans is coming off of a bye week, and it’s totally unclear what version of the team will show up on the other side. They scored 45.5 average points in their first two games of the season, lost seven straight, and then won their two games before the bye week. Derek Carr has quietly been solid this season, and the team seems to have a new life source now that Dennis Allen is no longer in charge.
The Saints are not a good team, but they have a renewed spirit and are going to be fresh coming off of a bye week. That said, there’s no guarantee that extra practice time with a totally unproven interim head coach leads to anything overwhelmingly positive, so we’d still look to the Rams.
Last week’s line of -5 against the Tommy DeVito-led Giants was nothing short of embarrassing and was why the Buccaneers were our favorite pick of the week. This week presents a different challenge however, as despite Baker Mayfield continuing to play great football and the Bucs coming out of a recent bye, they’re facing a resilient Panthers team that is playing its best football of the year. Tampa’s secondary is also 29th in defensive EPA per pass play for the year.
Bryce Young was the best second-year quarterback over the last four weeks and just played the best game of his career, going 21/35 for 263 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs. Chuba Hubbard is having a great year at running back, but the defense is still terrible.
We worry about the Bucs here. They should win and have a great chance to sneak into the playoffs as the NFC South champion, but the Panthers haven’t given up, and Young is finally starting to develop under Dave Canales. Tampa’s weak pass defense could be the reason it is unable to cover here.
Philadelphia is neck and neck with the Lions for the hottest team in the NFL and has arguably the best player at this exact moment, Saquon Barkley, leading the charge. The young secondary improved drastically as the year progressed, and the defensive front regained its fortitude. Jalen Hurts is a difference-maker whenever he doesn’t turn the ball over, which he’s done a solid job of as of late.
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are nothing short of the most terrifying offensive duo in the sport. The pair dominated the Chargers’ outstanding defense last week and will be relieved to have seen recent defensive improvements from a shoddy secondary. Baltimore seems to lose to unexpected teams but also has a knack for taking down fellow contenders not named the Chiefs.
This is going to be one of the best matchups of the season. The two best running backs and two of the best quarterbacks will be on the field, as will physical defenses that aim to take no prisoners. This will be a back-and-forth battle, but we’d lean toward the Ravens, given that Lamar Jackson only lost to an NFC opponent once.
Injuries to Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa have made the 49ers totally unpredictable. They were stomped by the Packers last week and are expected to play in the Buffalo snow this weekend, which will be made all the more difficult if Purdy can’t play. The snow should make for a low-scoring game, which favors the underdog, but this team just isn’t the same mentally or physically compared to years past.
Josh Allen is the frontrunner for the NFL MVP award, and for good reason. He gets the job done by land or by ground and is supported by a defense that allowed the seventh-fewest points per game (19.5).
We’ll spare you the lengthy analysis here. The simple fact is we can’t predict this game given the elements and the potential injuries to Purdy and Bosa.
49ers vs. Bills pick: N/A
Browns vs. Broncos - Dec. 2, 8:15 PM ET
Spread: Browns +5.5 (-110), Broncos -5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Browns +200, Broncos -250
Total: Over/under 42 (-110/-110)
The Browns last got a well-earned break after their upset win against the Steelers on Thursday Night Football last week. Jameis Winston has a mistake in him, but he’s demonstrated real leadership and pushed the ball down the field in ways that Deshaun Watson never did. The defense isn’t anywhere close to its usual level but played well and forced turnovers against the Steelers.
Bo Nix is the talk of the town as the Broncos continue to exceed expectations. The team plays a high-floor style and banks on its stellar defense, and the result is the team is positioned well to make the playoffs. They only played at home twice since Week 6, but they won both of those games.
This also shapes up to be a competitive game on Monday night. Nix and company have been better than the Browns, no doubt about it, but Winton breathed fresh life into the Browns organization and has the team morale sky-high. We’re not guaranteeing an upset, but we’d look to the visitors.
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Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.
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