The Steelers and Lions are tied for the best mark ATS at 8-2
The Titans only covered one time this season
Road favorites are 57.4 percent ATS thus far
There are less than two months until the end of the 2024 NFL regular season, and we’ve got the best against the spread for Week 12.
The Detroit Lions covered the largest line of last week with tremendous ease in their 52-6 demolition of the Jacksonville Jaguars, while the Buffalo Bills vindicated their status as home favorites by beating the Kansas City Chiefs and ending their undefeated streak.
As the calendar flips ahead, these are the best bets for NFL Week 12.
Picks ATS 2024 NFL Stats
Okay, another .500 week isn’t the worst thing in the world. We’re in the green over the last couple of months but are still working to recover from a dismal start to the season.
Check back next week for more picks, and if our suspicions are correct, a winning record!
At WSN, we pride ourselves on being the most trustworthy source for online sportsbook and casino reviews. Our in-house team of reviewers spend a minimum of six hours thoroughly evaluating each website before rating it using our unique BetEdge scoring system. This methodology was designed to ensure all reviews meet our high set of standards and are consistent across the board. Read more.
Affiliate Disclaimer
When you sign-up to a sportsbook or casino through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. This is how WSN makes money in order to continue providing valuable and trustworthy content for sports bettors and casino players. The compensation we receive does not impact our reviews or recommendations. The information on WSN will always remain unbiased, objective, and independent.
21+
WSN is committed to supporting the fight against underage gambling. While the legal minimum online gambling age varies by state, we take a strict
21+ stance and do not promote any underage gambling activities.
Like it or not, the Steelers are absolutely for real. They’re yet to lose with Russell Wilson under center and recorded wins against the Washington Commanders and Baltimore Ravens in back-to-back weeks. Russ isn’t posting mind-blowing stats, but he’s moving the ball well, while the defense is sixth in EPA per play over the last week.
Jameis Winston is playing better than Deshaun Watson ever did in Cleveland. The 10-year vet went for 395 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s loss to the New Orleans Saints but has the offense looking like more of a threat, though the defense has been abhorrent. Cleveland is only 3–7 ATS but has the benefit of playing a division rival at home on a short week.
The context of this matchup makes it much more compelling than the two teams do on paper. All signs point to the Steelers steamrolling the Browns, but the AFC North is known for beating up on itself, and Cleveland has the level of physicality needed to stand up to the Steelers. This game should be surprisingly close, but we’d still opt for the favorites.
Thought the Vikings lost their defense? Think again! They gave up 13 or fewer points in three straight games, and Sam Darnold is coming off of his best showing in close to a month (246 yards and two touchdowns against a solid Tennessee Titans defense). Minnesota is 4-1 on the road and should cause havoc on a rookie Caleb Williams.
Speaking of Williams, he was once again ponderous for most of last week’s matchup with the Green Bay Packers until he put together a phenomenal burst at the end of the fourth quarter. Unfortunately for him, a would-be game-winning field goal was blocked, and the Bears snatched defeat from the jaws of victory yet again. Their once-outstanding defense is becoming average, and Matt Eberflus hands out coaching errors like Halloween candy.
This is a horrible spot for the Bears, even as home 3.5-point underdogs in a division rivalry (just like the Browns). Brian Flores is known for bringing the heat against young QBs, and Williams has happy feet in the pocket. Chicago lost four straight games and is barreling toward a fifth.
It doesn’t matter if Jared Goff is throwing for 400 yards and four touchdowns or five interceptions, the Lions win football games. They haven’t lost since Week 2 and, as we say every week, are elite at every position group and spot on the coaching roster. What’s even scarier is that they rank fifth in points per game allowed (17.7) and have the highest-scoring offense in football.
Anthony Richardson had the best game of his career last week as he returned to the lineup to lead a 28-27 road win against the New York Jets, during which he racked up 304 total yards, three touchdowns, and the game-winning drive. Indy’s defense has improved as the year went on and is 13th in success rate, which is enough to remain competitive in games.
The Colts and Lions are a combined 16-5 against the spread. There’s no doubt that the Lions are an outstanding team and the Super Bowl favorites (per sportsbook odds), but the Colts under Shane Steichen regularly hang around in losses and win games they shouldn’t. Richardson likely won’t play like he did last week, but he and the Colts have enough to cover this line.
The Patriots have their QB of the future in Drake Maye, but he’s still raw and learning when and when not to try certain passes. NE’s defense has been on a downslide since the midpoint of the season, but Maye is a legitimate big-play-maker and recorded multi-touchdown games in half of his starts.
The Dolphins won back-to-back games and scored at least 23 in four straight games since Tua Tagovailoa’s return to action. They rank third in offensive EPA per play during those four games, which is a welcome sign that their offense is back and could potentially help spur the team to a playoff push. They already beat the Patriots with Tyler Huntley under center, though the Pats started Jacoby Brissett in that 15-10 win for the Fins.
The Pats covered in three of their last four and look like a much more competent and cohesive unit with their rookie QB under center. However, New England’s defense, while not overwhelming, is at least on par with Miami’s, which is enough reason to believe they can cover the line.
Baker Mayfield is playing with nothing to lose (aside from more receivers) and has played gutsy football despite the Buccaneers’ four-game losing streak. Don’t be fooled, however, as they played the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, and 49ers during that stretch, and are coming off of a bye. Tampa’s passing defense is horrible, but luckily, it shouldn’t have to worry about that too much in this matchup.
Tommy DeVito madness took over the NFL last season…but just like your favorite movie, the sequel is rarely better than the original. The Giants were outscored by 6.6 points per game (26th) and now get a team with a potent offense that is well-rested after a bye week. They’ll need their great pass-rush to step up big, otherwise it’s tough to see them making this competitive.
Mayfield is clearly the best player in this matchup, and Tampa’s high-powered offense (seventh in EPA per play) should totally overwhelm DeVito and the Giants’ D. We won’t waste too many words here, this is our favorite play of the week.
The Cowboys’ insistence on playing Cooper Rush instead of Trey Lance, who they traded a draft pick to acquire, is baffling. Rush is not the short or long-term future of the franchise, whereas Lance could either play himself into a future starting job or continue to be awful and improve the team’s draft position. Regardless, Dallas has the third-least-efficient defense in football, can’t run, and doesn’t have a starting-level QB under center.
The Commanders went from 7-2 to 7-4 in just four days and are now looking to get back into the win column after 10 days off. Dan Quinn insisted that Jayden Daniels is healthy despite his accuracy plummeting immediately after he suffered a rib injury, while the decline in overall effectiveness of the offense has been replaced by continued improvement on the defensive side of the ball. That should go to another level if Marshon Lattimore can make his D.C. debut.
The Commanders don’t search for blowouts, but three of their seven wins were by double-digits. They haven’t been favored by this much in a long time and should be able to win without much issue, and we wouldn’t put it past them to cover as they unleash their anger against a hated opponent.
Kansas City is no longer in pursuit of perfection following last week’s loss to the Bills, the team’s first of the season. Patrick Mahomes threw another two interceptions in the loss, while the defense had no answers for Josh Allen (and has been getting worse as the season wears on). That said, they can finally play somewhat carefree and set their sights on their ultimate goal of winning the NFL’s first Super Bowl three-peat.
Bryce Young is looking better than he has at any point in his professional career, and Chuba Hubbard has quietly been one of the best running backs in the league. Carolina’s defense, well, it plays football. The team is 3-7 against the spread but covered in each of its last two, suggesting a potential turning of the tides.
There’s nobody on planet Earth who can question which team is the better of the two. The question is if Kansas City will be lethargic or energized by the loss, and if Young will continue his upward trajectory. Unfortunately for Charlotte natives, we just can’t bring ourselves to bet on the Panthers against the back-to-back Super Bowl champs.
Tennessee’s offense is remarkably bad. They lose an average of .132 points per play just by snapping the ball according to net EPA per play and are horrible through the air and on the ground. Their defense is actually solid, but they’re almost always up against the wall and don’t have many opportunities to make impactful plays.
C.J. Stroud is experiencing the infamous sophomore slump, as evidenced by his throwing two touchdowns and three interceptions in his last five games. Luckily for him, the Texans allow the lowest completion percentage in football and take the ball away 1.8 times per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Joe Mixon has also been exceptional whenever healthy.
The Titans have only covered one time this entire season, while the Texans are 5-5-1 ATS. Stroud is not playing anywhere near his best, but it’s not a stretch to imagine Houston’s disruptive defense causing issues for the turnover-prone Will Levis.
Nobody seems to have a beat on Bo Nix and if he’s good, bad, a diamond in the rough, or a system quarterback. He’s only 21st in QBR and 26th in adjusted EPA per play, but he threw for 307 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-6 rout of the Falcons last week. Denver also has a top-three defense in football and beat the Raiders 34-18 earlier in the campaign.
Vegas’ offense (excluding Brock Bowers) is tough to watch. They have the worst rushing attack in the league, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, lost six straight games, and only scored more than 20 points one time during that stretch. Oh, and their defense is 29th in points allowed per game (28.5) and 31st in yards allowed per point.
Winning division rivalries on the road is tough, especially as a rookie quarterback. Vegas has shown no signs of life, however, which is why the line could arguably be even higher than it is. All of that said, we’d look at the Raiders here in a low-scoring game due to them having film on Nix from their earlier matchup and because Sean Payton typically employs a high-floor, low-ceiling approach.
Arguably the best game of the week, the 5-5 49ers are in last place in the NFC West and need a win to stay alive for the playoffs. Christian McCaffrey has not made much of a difference since he returned to the field, while Brock Purdy has four touchdowns and four interceptions in his last four games. San Fran’s defense also gave up 20+ points in four straight games and isn’t playing at its usual level anywhere on the field.
Jordan Love’s egregious interception issue is a glaring problem for a team that otherwise has a potent offense and its best defense in years. In many ways, their ability to mix in play-action and deep passes with an efficient running game resembles San Francisco of years past, while the defense ranks 10th in points allowed per game (21.3). They also get to play in what is expected to be 46-degree weather, well below what the Niners are used to in the Bay Area.
All good things have to come to an end. We’re not saying that a loss this weekend will doom the Niners this season and beyond, but it would be a huge blow for a team that is already in last place in its division. And simply put, the Packers are the better team in a more favorable situation.
Building off our NFC West commentary, the Cardinals are 6-4 and lead all teams in the division by a game. Jonathan Gannon has Kyler Murray playing the best football of his career and a running game that averaged the fifth-most yards per game (149.4). They still have a bottom-10 defense, but that’s largely due to their personnel as opposed to systemic issues.
The Seattle offense is extremely frustrating. They move the ball up and down the field and make tons of big plays, but they’re only 19th in yards per point, meaning their efficiency is well below their raw production. Mike MacDonald’s defensive mindset also hasn’t taken hold yet as the team ranks 21st in points per game allowed (23.8).
Seattle is rolling after a huge fourth-quarter comeback win against the Niners last week. But if there’s one thing we’ve come to expect with the Seahawks, it’s for them to constantly let themselves down after working their way into favorable positions. Arizona got last week off to prepare for the matchup and should be better for it.
No team in the NFL is hotter than the Eagles, who won six straight games and got 10 days of rest between their matchup with the Commanders on TNF in Week 11 and the Rams on SNF in Week 12. Saquon Barkley is a devastating force against every defense in the NFL, while Philly’s defense leads the entire league by a wide margin in EPA per play during their winning streak.
Matthew Stafford can still be brilliant when he has his weapons around him, as proven by his four-touchdown showing in last weekend’s win against the Pats. Jared Verse has also proven to be an incredible defensive weapon, but the defense overall is mediocre at best.
This has the makings of a high-scoring affair. While playing at home is usually an advantage, the Rams are only 3-2 in their building and are known for not having overwhelming fan support. The Eagles are rolling on both ends, will be more rested, and simply have a better roster.
As it turns out, Lamar Jackson is the best regular-season player in the world until he faces the Pittsburgh Steelers. He’s terrorized other great defenses, but he’s getting the Chargers’ best-in-the-league D in a Monday Night special that will test the true resolve of this squad. Baltimore defends the heck out of the run but leads the league in penalties and is terrible in the secondary.
Justin Herbert was incredible in the first half of last week’s win against the Bengals, while the defense put Cincy behind the 8 ball and came through in the final moments of the fourth quarter. Jim Harbaugh leverages his team’s physicality and forces opponents to execute to perfection on offense in order to move down the field, which is why his team holds opponents to a league-best 21.9 yards per point scored.
This is a brutal matchup for both teams. Baltimore needs to stop abandoning the run in high-profile matchups, while Herbert can really make his way into the NFL MVP conversation with a great performance and a win. We’re not guaranteeing an upset, but we’d look at getting the Chargers with the points.
If you or someone you know needs support or wants to speak with a professional about responsible gambling, seek out the correct resources. Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER to get help, or visit 1800gambler.net for more information. WSN is an advocate for safe gambling practices. Visit our Responsible Gambling Center for more details.
Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.
Get special offers and tips straight to your inbox
Sign up to our newsletter to get WSN's latest hands-on reviews, expert advice, and exclusive offers delivered straight to your inbox.
We've been featured on:
We only list licensed sportsbooks
We support responsible gambling. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly. If you need help, call
1-800-Gambler.
WSN.com is managed by Gentoo Media. Unless declared otherwise, all of the visible content on this site, such
as texts and images, including the brand name and logo, belongs to Innovation Labs Limited (a Gentoo Media
company) - Company Registration Number C44130, VAT ID: MT18874732, @GIG Beach Triq id-Dragunara, St.
Julians, STJ3148, Malta.
Advertising Disclosure: WSN.com contains links to partner websites. When a visitor to our website clicks on
one of these links and makes a purchase at a partner site, World Sports Network is paid a commission.
/fit-in/222x222/caesars-sportsbook-b.jpeg)
/fit-in/222x222/frame-1-1.png)
/filters:no_upscale()/fit-in/1200x585/1732092246/nfl-picks-against-the-spread-week-12.jpg "NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 12")
/1670420339/img-2826.jpg "Img 2826")
/dmca.png "Dmca"){kind=small}
/1670944202/21.png "21"){kind=small}
/1670944628/2022-igb-best-casino-affiliate-gig-media-e1651053747946.png "2022 igb best casino affiliate gig media e1651053747946"){kind=small}
/1670944701/gig-media-power-affiliates-rank-123x40-1.png "Gig media power affiliates rank 123x40 1"){kind=icon}
/1670944773/800-gambler-black-144x40.jpg "800 gambler black 144x40"){kind=small}
/1718715753/gpwa.webp "Gpwa"){kind=small}
