NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread: Chiefs Underdogs at Buffalo

• The Lions are the best team against the spread at 7-2

• The Titans are the worst team ATS at 1-8

• Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are underdogs again despite betting trends

The time has come for us to share our best bets against the spread for NFL Week 11.

Last week saw the Steelers pull off a road upset, Lamar Jackson outduel Joe Burrow in a one-point primetime win, and the Kansas City Chiefs stay perfect thanks to a blocked field goal.

With that level of drama in the past and even more to come, it’s time we hone in on the coming weekend’s action.

Here are our best picks against the spread for NFL Week 11.

Picks ATS 2024 NFL Stats

Last week put an end to our four-week heater. Losses are going to happen, but we’d be lying if we said that we weren’t disappointed. 

Shoving last week aside, we’ve still been great ever since the wildly unpredictable first month of the season. One strong week and we’re back into the green with a couple of months to push our advantage out even further. 

Buckle up and let’s go! Here are our NFL Week 11 picks against the spread. 

• Last week’s record: 5-9-1 (35.7 percent)

• 2024 record: 72-77-3 (48.3 percent)

NFL Week 11 Predictions and Odds

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Commanders vs. Eagles - Nov. 14, 8:15 PM ET 

• Spread: Commanders +3 (-105), Eagles -3 (-115)

• Moneyline: Commanders +140, Eagles -165

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-105/-115)

The Commanders are 7-0 against teams below .500 and 0-3 against teams with winning records. Fair or not, they have to take a roster littered with injuries on the road on a short week to face a divisional rival that won five straight games. Jayden Daniels has played well in key moments but was let down by his receivers last week, and they need to be prepared to play well in a hostile environment.

The Eagles of the last five weeks are completely different from the ones that were on the field the year prior. Saquon Barkley’s talents running the football have opened up deep passing lanes down the field, and the young defense is showing consistent improvement. Washington doesn’t take the ball away very often, and the Eagles are 24-8 when Hurts doesn’t throw an interception.

The injury statuses of Marshon Lattimore and Brian Robinson Jr. will play a major part in determining the Commanders’ chances of pulling off an upset. Philly is dominant and needs to beware of complacency, while Washington needs to use the anger from last weekend’s loss to power it on a short week. We ultimately believe the Eagles are in a better position to win and to cover the line. 

Commanders vs. Eagles pick: Eagles -3 (-115) at BetMGM

Packers vs. Bears - Nov. 17, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Packers -6.5 (-110), Bears +6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Packers -300, Bears +240

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

Green Bay had a much-needed week off, allowing it to recover from the physical hangover of playing the Lions and Jordan Love to work off a nagging groin injury. The Packers run the ball to great effect and are explosive, although Love is displaying a terrifying tendency of turning the ball over in the most ridiculous ways possible. The defense, which started the year well, gave up 22+ points in three straight games.

Caleb Williams is really struggling. He didn’t throw a touchdown and averaged just 16 yards and a 50.5 completion percentage over his last three games, all of which the Bears lost (despite holding two of three opponents under 20 points). This is a very talented team, but one that doesn’t have order in the locker room, isn’t well-coached, and isn’t playing for the other players in the locker room.

Both teams have their problems, but the Bears’ are far more serious than the Packers as far as the intangibles. Chicago gets to play at home, where it is 4-1, but Green Bay is coming off of a bye week and is 3-1 on the road. We expect the Packers to control this game but like the Bears to use a Love turnover to cover the line at home. 

Packers vs. Bears pick: Bears +6.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Jaguars vs. Lions - Nov. 17, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Jaguars +13 (-110), Lions -13 (-110)

• Moneyline: Jaguar +550, Lions -800

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

It’s unclear if Trevor Lawrence will be healthy enough to play against the Lions, or if Mac Jones will be back under center like he was last weekend. The former New England Patriots went 14/22 for 111 yards and two interceptions as the Jags fell to the Vikings despite forcing three interceptions and holding them to 12 total points. As we say nearly every week, this Jags team just finds ways to lose games, and it’s why they’re the biggest underdog on Sunday.

The Lions are a juggernaut. They dominate the point of attack physically, can move the ball through the air or on the ground, give up less than 20 points per game, get after the quarterback, stop the run, and play great coverage. It will be a disappointment if they don’t win the Super Bowl, especially seeing as they just beat another contender (the Texans) in a game in which Jared Goff threw five interceptions. 

The Jags are really bad… but they aren’t horrible. While they might come up short in nearly every crucial situation, they only have two losses by more than one score. The Lions are an exceptional team, but they did not play well against Houston and should struggle to cover this large of a line.

Jaguars vs. Lions pick: Jaguars +13 (-110) at BetMGM

Vikings vs. Titans - Nov. 17, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Vikings -6.5 (-110), Titans +6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Vikings -275, Titans +225

• Total: Over/under 39.5 (-110/-110)

The Sam Darnold magic carpet ride (a la last year’s flavor of the season, Josh Dobbs) is over. Once an early NFL MVP candidate, Darnold threw zero touchdowns and three interceptions last week, bringing him to six touchdowns and seven INTs over his last five outings. Luckily for him, the Vikings' defense held the Jaguars to seven points and gave up just 13.7 average points in their seven wins.

Will Levis, Mason Rudolph, it doesn’t matter, the Titans have a serious quarterback issue. They traded DeAndre Hopkins in a gesture that symbolized their intention not to compete this year despite having a fairly impressive defense. They struggle to score 20 points in a given game and have the second-worst turnover margin per game (1.2).

This is a matchup between two teams going in opposite directions. The Titans’ home-field advantage won’t help them here, and they can only hope that they force Darnold into a few turnovers. That said, Brian Flores’ defense could easily force Levis or Rudolph to do the same and is why we like the chalk.

Vikings vs. Titans pick: Vikings -6.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Raiders vs. Dolphins - Nov. 17, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Raiders +7 (-110), Dolphins -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Raiders +275, Dolphins -350

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

Referencing our last pick, Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, it doesn’t matter… the Raiders are going to Raider, which right now means losing most of the games they play. Antonio Pierce last year did a great job motivating his guys to play up to opponents, but now it seems as if he’s either lost the team and the locker room, or they really are just THAT bad. They lost five straight games, rank 30th in average scoring margin and have the worst turnover differential in the NFL.

Miami has not been great at any point this season, though they look better with Tua Tagovailoa under center. They got past the Rams 23-15 in their last game and, very quietly, have a shot at going on a run and grabbing the seventh seed in the AFC standings if they come close to winning out.

The Raiders really don’t have anything to play for at this point. That said, Tua threw a pick in his last game and hasn’t driven his team to make winning plays since his return to action. We’d look for a Dolphins win but think the Raiders have a chance to cover here.

Raiders vs. Dolphins pick: Raiders +7 (-110) at BetMGM

Rams vs. Patriots - Nov. 17, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Rams -5.5 (-110), Patriots +5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Rams -250, Patriots +200

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

Matthew Stafford did not throw a touchdown and had an interception in the primetime loss to the Dolphins last week. LA is very up and down and has some promising young players on defense, though they are 22nd in points allowed per game (24.1) and can’t consistently rely on their offense to paper over the cracks.

Drake Maye might not have amazing numbers (seven touchdowns, five interceptions in four starts), but his fairly untalented team is 2-2 with him taking the majority of the snaps and 1-5 without him. He’s willing to take risks, which make him a very boom-or-bust player going against this version of the Rams.

It’s obvious that the Rams are the better team at their best, though there’s no guarantee that they hit that level on Sunday. The Patriots have a bit of confidence with Maye under center and have gotten solid defensive performances at different points in the season. This could come down to whether Maye sneaks in a backdoor cover or not, but we’d opt for “not.”

Rams vs. Patriots pick: Rams -5.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Browns vs. Saints - Nov. 17, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Browns +1 (-110), Saints -1 (-110)

• Moneyline: Browns +100, Saints -120

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

We’ve seen two sides of the Jameis Winston-led Browns, one that saw him play great and the team upset the Ravens, and the other that resulted in a 17-point turnover-filled loss to the Chargers. They’re looking for a solid middle ground and potentially a bridge to the future as they return from their bye week, meaning Nick Chubb has another week of recovery and Winston gets more reps with the ones.

The Saints are parlay killers. Whether it be them scoring 44+ points in Weeks 1 and 2, losing seven straight games, or upsetting the Falcons last weekend, they exist (this season) to cause chaos. They’re missing most of their impact wide receivers but are fairly healthy on defense and haven’t given up on their season, though there’s an argument that they played their best last weekend because they had to face a division rival.

Neither one of these teams is in a position to compete this season. The Browns have a better active roster but are more volatile at quarterback, and they’re on the road. This one could swing either way, but Kevin Stefanski is the best coach and Winston has the highest ceiling in the matchup, so we’ll take the visitors coming off of a bye.

Browns vs. Saints pick: Browns +1 (-110) at BetMGM

Colts vs. Jets - Nov. 17, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Colts +3.5 (-105), Jets -3.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Colts +155, Jets -190

• Total: Over/under 44 (-110/-110)

Joe Flacco will remain under center for the Colts despite a terrible showing in his last outing and despite the team losing three straight games. Shane Steichen is running out of rabbits to pull out of the hat, and the defense simply isn’t at the level needed to carry the offense through its lulls. This team can remain competitive but is likely to struggle the rest of the way home.

There is no reason to believe the Jets are a good team at all. Their defense has regressed, and the offense is totally uninspiring, led by a quarterback who would be lucky to escape a list of the 10 worst starters in the league. They were dominated by the Cardinals last week and don’t have any emotional cards left to play.

Both of these teams are done—but the Colts aren’t as done as the Jets are. We trust the culture that Steichen built in Indy more than whatever is going on in the Big Apple, so we’d look at the underdogs here (who have been solid against the spread).

Colts vs. Jets pick: Colts +3.5 (-105) at BetMGM

Ravens vs. Steelers - Nov. 17, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Ravens -3 (-115), Steelers +3 (-105)

• Moneyline: Ravens -175, Steelers +145

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

Lamar Jackson was sublime against the Bengals and got 10 days to prepare for the matchup against his division rivals. Baltimore’s passing defense still needs tons of work, but they shut down the run just as well as anyone in football. They also lead the NFL in scoring and are simply terrifying whenever they have the ball. 

Pittsburgh finds ways to win games regardless of circumstance or method, and Mike Tomlin is the best coach against the spread as an underdog in the NFL. That said, the Steelers are going to need to find a way to establish the run to facilitate their play-action game, where Russell Wilson does most of his damage. They also need to clean up their situational execution, as they were an inch away from likely losing to the Commanders last week.

The Steelers deserve total praise for their start to the year and have looked solid with Wilson under center. But as good as they’ve been and as great as Tomlin is historically against the spread, Baltimore’s ability to stuff the run puts the Pittsburgh offense in a precarious position. Alex Highsmith is also out, and T.J. Watt is in a cold stretch.

Ravens vs. Steelers pick: Ravens -3 (-115) at BetMGM

Falcons vs. Broncos - Nov. 17, 4:05 PM ET 

• Spread: Falcons +2.5 (-110), Broncos -2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Falcons +110, Broncos -135

• Total: Over/under 44 (-110/-110)

The Falcons haven’t lost back-to-back games all year and are a solid team, although last week's loss to the Saints was unacceptable. Their biggest impediment to success is their defense’s overall play even if they have solid players on that side of the football. Kirk Cousins has also been solid thus far and should be able to bounce back from a poor performance, though he’ll have to do it against a great defense.

Bo Nix’s numbers were better than his early-season performances, but he’s shown promising signs within Sean Payton’s system as of late. He can’t be asked to go throw-for-throw with the best gunslingers in the league, but he can move the ball up and down the field. Their defense is also ranked eighth in yards per point allowed, whereas Atlanta is 22nd in yards per point scored.

We’ve been slow to come around the Broncos, but we’re finally there. That said, this Atlanta team has been consistent, and it’s reasonable to expect an emotional hangover after a tough loss like the one the Broncos suffered last week. We aren’t comfortable laying points with them as the favorite just yet, so we’ll take the visitors.

Falcons vs. Broncos pick: Falcons +2.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Seahawks vs. 49ers - Nov. 17, 4:05 PM ET 

• Spread: Seahawks +6.5 (-110), 49ers -6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Seahawks +240, 49ers -300

• Total: Over/under 50.5 (-110/-110)

Seattle can throw a wrench in the NFC West or effectively end its season depending on what transpires on Sunday. They have an effective but also inefficient offense and a defense that is supposed to be a strength, but has been more of a weakness post-Week 3. The team lost five of its last six games but is coming off of a bye, presenting a huge opportunity for first-year head coach Mike MacDonald. 

The Niners have some internal issues, whether that be related to injuries, Deebo Samuel fighting special teams players, or Christian McCaffrey not being his usual self. Brock Purdy is playing well, and the defense has improved as the year progressed. San Fran already took down the Seahawks 36-24 on the road in a game in which they did anything and everything they wanted on offense and held the Seahawks to 52 rushing yards.

Road divisional matchups are never easy, but the Seahawks are coming off of a bye, already played this opponent once, and took a solid Rams team to overtime the last time they took the field. Geno Smith has to protect the football for them to cover, but we still believe they can do just that.

Seahawks vs. 49ers pick: Seahawks +6.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Chiefs vs. Bills - Nov. 17, 4:25 PM ET 

• Spread: Chiefs +2.5 (-110), Bills -2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Chiefs +115, Bills -135

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

What’s it going to take for the Chiefs to finally lose a game? Isaiah Pacheco is back at practice and could take the field for the first time since Week 2, although Kareem Hunt has done a great job in his absence. The defense is only 16th in success rate but plays at a high level, particularly in key moments, and the offense is, well, inevitable.

The Bills are going to need to beat a contender at some point. They went 8-0 against inferior opponents but lost to the Texans and the Ravens, the two contenders they faced, and this is the time for Josh Allen to really prove himself in a home matchup with the dynastic Chiefs. Buffalo is also in a strange spot, as they have already effectively locked up the AFC East but will basically be eliminated from contention for the one seed if they lose this weekend.

Look, the Chiefs WILL lose a game… and the Bills are due for a great performance against a great team… but betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is one of the least profitable strategies in NFL betting. Even if we think the Bills are in with a great shot at winning this game, laying points with them, and most importantly, against the Chiefs, is almost a sin. 

Chiefs vs. Bills pick: Chiefs +2.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Bengals vs. Chargers - Nov. 17, 8:20 PM ET 

• Spread: Bengals +1.5 (-110), Chargers -1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bengals +100, Chargers -120

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-105/-115)

Joe Burrow is playing the best football of his career, while Ja’Marr Chase and Trey Hendrickson have also been excellent. Unfortunately, the efforts of those three have not been enough to elevate the team beyond its current 4-6 record, which is largely down to the ineffectiveness of the defense. Their best win is against the Browns, so this would instantly become a crowning achievement if they were to win.

The Jim Harbaugh effect is undeniable at this point. He came to a team that had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, didn’t change much from a personnel standpoint, and now has his team allowing the fewest points per game (13.1) BY FAR, and has Justin Herbert throwing the football the best he has in his entire career.

This is a brutal matchup for a Bengals team that desperately needs a win and is facing a serial winner who cultivated the league’s best defense. Burrow has been brilliant nearly all year and just needs an ounce of defensive support, and given the Chargers’ lack of weapons, he has a chance to get it.

Bengals vs. Chargers pick: Bengals +1.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Texans vs. Cowboys - Nov. 17, 8:15 PM ET 

• Spread: Texans -7.5 (-110), Cowboys +7.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Texans -350, Cowboys +275

• Total: Over/under 42 (-110/-110)

The Texans’ loss to the Lions, during which Jared Goff threw five interceptions, was totally unacceptable in every capacity. This team has a solid defense and can be explosive on offense, although C.J. Stroud’s sophomore slump (aided by poor offensive line play) is an issue, as are the injuries to the team’s top wideouts, Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Collins is questionable and would give his team a huge boost if he plays. 

There’s no point in expecting the Cowboys to do anything good for the rest of the season. Cooper Rush managed 45 yards on 23 attempts against the Eagles, and their running game is one of the worst in the league. They had a shaky defense to begin with and will be behind the 8 ball every time they take the field because of the offense.

We’ll keep this one short. A Dak Prescott-less Cowboys team is abysmal, and the Texans are the best bet on Monday Night Football.

Texans vs. Cowboys pick: Texans -7.5 (-110) at BetMGM

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