The Commanders (7-1-1) and Lions (7-1) only failed to cover once
The Titans are the worst team AT at 1-7 (12.5 percent)
The Cowboys are trying to save their season against the Eagles without Dak
Halfway into the 2024 NFL season and the storylines for what is to come are taking place.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions separated themselves from the field, while several teams are lined up in the chase pack waiting to take their shot at a conference title.
We haven’t had a losing week with NFL picks against the spread in more than a month. Here are our favorite spread bets for Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season.
Picks ATS 2024 NFL Stats
We had both great and unfortunate picks last week, resulting in us finishing at .500—but as the introduction mentioned, we haven’t had a losing week in more than a month and are confident in our read on the NFL landscape.
Let’s keep the winning streak alive! Here are our best bets against the spread for NFL Week 10.
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The Bengals’ tumultuous season took a turn for the better last week as they beat the Las Vegas Raiders 41-24, quietly bringing them to 4-5 with wins in three of their last four games. They should have beaten the Ravens in Week 5 but ended up on the wrong side of a 41-38 overtime result. Joe Burrow had another five-touchdown game last week and is playing at an elite level, but the team struggles to run the ball and get stops in any significant moments.
Lamar Jackson is second in passing yards and passing touchdowns and is nearly on pace to run for 1,000 yards, while Derrick Henry is also just off of a 2,000-yard season trajectory. The pass defense is awful, but there’s no team that does a better job of shutting down the road. The team gained 520 yards of total offense and scored 41 when they last played Cincy on the road, but they too need their defense to step up.
Cincinnati’s wins this season came against the Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns, and the Raiders. They are yet to prove that they can take down contenders and were recently manhandled by the Philadelphia Eagles, which leaves us doubting their ability to upset. That said, Burrow is red-hot and should have just enough juice to help his team cover.
In classic Daniel Jones fashion, the Giants’ QB defied all logic by going 4/6 for zero yards and a touchdown at halftime of last week’s loss to the Washington Commanders. NY is on a four-game losing streak and struggles to generate any sort of offense if Malik Nabers isn’t involved, barring a continuation of the unforeseen excellent play by rookie back Tyrone Tracy Jr. the Giants get after opposing QBs better than anyone but don’t have the back-end support.
Bryce Young looked okay the last couple of weeks, which is actually a significant improvement from where he was. The team took down the hapless New Orleans Saints last week but now find themselves at risk of taking their foot off of the gas when their tank was already empty. They still rank dead last in average scoring margin by a wide margin (-16.2 points per game) and have to take their game on the road to Germany.
Both of these teams are terrible, and the flight to Munich only adds more confusion to the mess. New York has a better defense and running game, both of which usually translate on the road, which makes us comfortable laying the points with them as disappointing as their offense has been.
The world got to see the best and worst of Drake Maye last week as the Patriots fell to the one-win Tennessee Titans. The 22-year-old rookie went 29/41 and had one of the best touchdown passes of the season, along with two interceptions, one of which ended the game in overtime. The Pats’ defense is getting worse every week and is down to 29th in EPA per play, only ahead of the Dallas Cowboys, Panthers, and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Did Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary break the Chicago Bears? They looked totally uninterested in contending a road matchup with the Arizona Cardinals last weekend, during which DJ Moore walked off of the field on a live play, Caleb Williams had a QBR of 18.3, and coach Matt Eberflus fell to 0-18 in road matchups on Sundays. Their three-game win streak now feels like a lifetime ago following back-to-back losses of increasing magnitude.
There’s no reason for the Bears to lose this game with their on-paper advantage in talent. The Patriots also don’t look like a better team with Maye, even if he’s clearly a better player than Jacoby Brissett is. It might not be pretty, but we trust the Bears to cover this line at home.
Buffalo had no problem taking care of every non-Super Bowl contender it faced this season, going 7-0 (5-2 ATS) in such matchups. Josh Allen looks more comfortable now that he is allowed to throw the ball downfield, and he’s still been remarkably careful with the ball and efficient. The Bills’ defense has also held strong throughout the season, ranking 11th in EPA per play.
Joe Flacco makes the Colts a better team than Anthony Richardson does, even if he didn’t perform well against the Vikings. He threw seven touchdowns and two interceptions and posted a QBR of 61.9 in four games thus far, while the Colts are 2-2 with him under center. Their defense is solid against the run but struggles against the pass and is only 22nd in sack percentage on opponents’ dropbacks.
The Colts are a whopping 7-2 against the spread, making them one of the most profitable teams in the league. Buffalo, as previously mentioned, has also done a great job taking care of business against lesser opponents, which is exactly what it is facing here. Both teams take the ball away at an impressive clip, so this should be a back-and-forth game that ends up being fairly close.
Denver had one of the best defenses in the league… until it met a dominant offense. They gave up 41 points to the Ravens and only scored 10 points, all of which came in the second quarter. Bo Nix has his moments and his numbers aren’t horrible, but he’s 28th in EPA per play and 32nd in success rate.
The Chiefs’ addition of DeAndre Hopkins seems like it could be a game-changer. The potential HOFer caught eight passes for 86 yards and two TDs on Monday, while Travis Kelce caught a career-high 14 balls for 100 yards. The running game is first in success rate, while the defense gives up the fourth-fewest points per game (18.4).
The Broncos were put in their place by the Ravens and now face a team that hasn’t lost since Christmas 2023. That said, the Chiefs usually don’t blow teams out, although they looked more dynamic with Hopkins in the fold. This one could go either way, but we’d look at the Chiefs to have a strong day on offense now that Mahomes is back in rhythm.
Is it time to believe in the Falcons as legitimate contenders or not? They won five of their last six games (four of which were against NFC South opponents) and took down the Dallas Cowboys 27-21 last week as Kirk Cousins is third in passing yards with 18 touchdowns to seven interceptions. They have the third-highest success rate on run plays but are still waiting for the defense to wake up.
The Saints have lost nearly all of their top playmakers to injuries and just fired coach Dennis Allen after a one-point loss to the Panthers. They don’t get after the quarterback, allow the fourth-most rushing yards per attempt, and only have one great player (Alvin Kamara) to turn to on offense. This is a troubled team that is going to get worse before it gets better.
The Falcons might only be proven against their division, but they’re playing a divisional opponent! The Saints are completely collapsing and would do well for themselves if they kept this game close even with the typical boost teams receive immediately after firing their coach.
Christian McCaffrey was designated to return from injured reserve and should be back in the lineup barring any setbacks. He could be rusty, but his presence will still take some weight off of the shoulders of Brock Purdy, who has impressed but also disappointed in spots. San Fran’s defense played well against the Chiefs and Cowboys but hasn’t put a season of excellence together like it normally does.
The Buccaneers play tough and have an explosive offense thanks to Baker Mayfield. They did a great job keeping Mahomes in the pocket on Monday but still struggled to get stops, particularly on defense, for the year as a whole. Mike Evans could miss the matchup once again, and Chris Godwin is also out.
The Niners are yet to put a great performance on tape this season. Tampa plays hard but is outmatched in personnel and goes as Mayfield’s turnovers do. We’d take the Niners here as they’re fresh off a bye week, and Tampa got one less day of rest than usual.
Mike Tomlin-coached teams are 13-4 the week after a bye week and 59-31-3 (65.1 percent) ATS as an underdog. Pittsburgh is also 2-0 with Russell Wilson under center, while their defense ranks second in points allowed per game (14.9), fourth in takeaways per game, and 10th in yards per play. They ran the ball to great effect in their last few games and have explosiveness with Wilson, even if he only has a 53.7 QBR.
Washington leads the NFL in offensive EPA per play, won three games in a row, and hasn’t lost at home this season. Jayden Daniels is playing the quarterback position at an elite level, while the team only turned the ball over three times all season and ranks third in yards per play. The defense showed serious improvement since Week 3 but also took advantage of several bad offenses and will be really tested against a great coach in Tomlin.
This is a classic case of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object, as the Commanders are 7-1 ATS but are facing a coach that dominates as an underdog and after bye weeks. The Steelers are in the bottom 10 for sack percentage but have disruptive personnel that will test Daniels, and Wasington’s defensive solidarity will come into question against a QB who has been willing to take deep shots. We’d look at the Steelers to win a low-scoring game here.
The Vikings' defense did a number on Joe Flacco, just as it did to most QBs it faced thus far. Sam Darnold is slipping and turning the ball over, but he is getting the ball to his playmakers, while Aaron Jones has done a great job on the ground. This team doesn’t have a Super Bowl ceiling but has a high floor thanks to its coaching, speed, and physicality.
The only impressive part of the Jaguars is how disappointing they are in every circumstance. If they aren’t being blown out, they’re finding creative ways to lose games and put their jobs in jeopardy. They can rush the QB, and Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been as bad as one would think, but this team just doesn’t look like it can stand up for itself.
Our critique might sound harsh, but the 2-7 Jags have only beaten the Colts (by three) and the New England Patriots. They’re somehow 5-4 ATS, but they rank poorly in nearly every major statistic and are about to face a team that’s well-coached and is eagerly trying to re-establish its winning identity.
If the over/under is any indication, this is going to be a defensive duel. The Titans’ season numbers were ruined two weeks ago when they gave up 52 points to the Lions, but outside of that game, they handled themselves fairly well, given the lack of offensive support. Mason Rudolph isn’t the long-term answer and threw at least one interception in all three of his starts, but he scored five total touchdowns and threw for at least 215 yards every time.
The Chargers pride themselves on a strong defense that leads the NFL in EPA per play. Justin Herbert had his leash extended a month ago and averaged 286.8 passing yards to go with five touchdowns in his last four games. The team also ranks 11th in average time of possession (Tennessee is fifth) and controls the line of scrimmage with a great offensive line.
We’d actually look at the over in this game, given the spark that Rudolph added to the Titans’ offense. That said, he’s a walking turnover waiting to happen, and the Chargers have the stingiest defense in the entire league. We expect LA to squeeze the life out of the visitors and to improve to 6-3.
The Eagles are officially good again. Their offense was explosive and efficient each of the last three weeks, while their defense was first in EPA per play during the same time frame. Saquon Barkley’s excellence continually opens up lanes in the passing game, and the young secondary is improving every week.
The Cowboys are down Dak Prescott and could be without CeeDee Lamb as well, leaving Cooper Rush and a band of cast-offs and misfits to tango with a divisional opponent. Dallas doesn’t run the ball or stop the run well, is injured, and seems to have already punted on the season. It’s hard to find a source of motivation here.
Sports are funny sometimes. Rush led the Cowboys on a four-game win streak in five starts in 2022, though the Dallas defense was significantly better than it is now. Philly is clicking and finally has a real reason to have some confidence for the first time in a long time, but this is still a road divisional matchup against a team that is fighting for its playoff life.
Credit where it’s due, Aaron Rodgers rebounded from a terrible first half in last week’s matchup with the Texans and was excellent in the second half en route to 211 yards, three touchdowns, and a win over the Texans. The team is only 3-6, but the defense has not given up. Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams both had big days, and the team got extra rest since it played on Thursday.
Don’t look now, but the Cardinals are leading the NFC West. Kyler Murray is far from perfect, but he moves the ball down the field (along with a great running game) and makes highlight plays. The defense also held its last three opponents to an average of 17 points and just played its best game of the year.
The Jets’ rest advantage is somewhat mitigated by the Cardinals’ home-field advantage in the matchup. While Murray has been the better quarterback overall, the Jets have a significant advantage on defense, and we don’t expect the Cards to play at the same level they did against the Bears. Begrudgingly, we like the Jets on the road.
Detroit is absolutely rolling and is the hottest team in the NFL. They won six straight games, including wins against the Cardinals, Seahawks, Vikings, and Packers, and won four of those six by at least 10 points. On top of leading the NFL in scoring, they gave up the fifth-fewest points per play (18.5) and just added Za’Darius Smith to bolster their pass rush amid the absence of Aidan Hutchinson.
C.J. Stroud isn’t playing poorly, but he hasn’t been at the level that he was at during his rookie campaign. He’s also feeling the effects of missing Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins, which is part of why he completed just 11 of 30 pass attempts last week against the Jets. Houston’s defense can make plays but hasn’t been able to drive the team to wins the way teams with stellar defenses have.
A healthy Texans team would give the Lions a real challenge. But while no team is perfect, and unexpected losses happen, it’s hard to imagine that happening here. The Lions are confident, hot, and added a key player to their roster, putting them in a favorable position against an injured team whose QB is playing the worst football of his career.
Miami might be 0-2 with Tua back in the lineup, but their offense has a pulse again. That said, they’re only 2-6 and 1-3 with their big-money QB under center, and Mike McDaniel has failed to replicate the same magic that he created the last couple of years. The Dolphins’ defense also gave up at least 24 points in six of its last eight games, which is far from encouraging.
It seems as if the Rams aren’t fully interested in contending for postseason glory, judging by their decision to ship Tre’Davious White to the Ravens. However, they won three straight games and have Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back at their disposal, which resulted in Matthew Stafford throwing six touchdowns and two interceptions in his last two games.
The Rams started last year slow before they ripped off seven wins in eight games. They appear to be doing something similar this time around, even if they’ve been lost in the logjam that is the NFC West. The Dolphins are missing the winning edge and have a defense just as bad, if not worse, than the Rams do, which is why we like them to get the job done at home.
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Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.
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