Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce’s 2020/21 Receiving Yards - Predictions & Odds

• NFL All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce has been playing in the league since 2013, all seven of those seasons spent lining up for the Kansas City Chiefs, with a Super Bowl ring (and most likely plenty more in his future) to show for his efforts.
• Last season, the 30-year old 5x Pro Bowl tight end was targeted by quarterback Patrick Mahomes 136 times, with 97 of those turning into receptions for 1,229 total yards and 5 touchdowns.
• Kelce was ranked as the 4th most productive wide receiver last season, with the next best tight end on that list ranked 15th (TE Darren Waller, LV Raiders), proving his value as a playmaker at a position that is typically less productive.
• Last season, Kelce’s Chiefs won the Super Bowl with a 23rd ranked rushing attack, so it will be interesting to watch how the addition of a rookie playmaker running back will affect the team’s offensive game plan.

One of the many athletes that make the Kansas City Chiefs the best team in the NFL right now is their talented tight end Travis Kelce, who last season was the most productive at his position as well as ranked fourth among all NFL wide receivers, not a common happening for most players at that typically less targeted position.

But Kelce is definitely not most players, the 7-season veteran with almost 6,500 total yards in his career so far and 37 touchdowns, the 6’5” 260-pound beast also providing his share of blocks for the Chiefs’ pass protection and run game.

The follow-up season for any Super Bowl Champion team is never a given (and often feels cursed), so expect Kelce to play a major role in the team’s follow attempt at another Lombardi Trophy as we look at the predictions and odds of his 2020 total passing yards.

Odds taken 4, June 2020 from DraftKings

Keep in mind the odds in these wagers will shift plenty of times before the actual games are played, so be sure to check back here often to get all the latest numbers.

Wager Note: For the last two seasons, Kelce has had 1,126+ total passing yards, while missing this over on one of his earlier years by only a yard (1,125 total passing yards in 2016).

Kansas City’s Roster is Mostly Unchanged, Expect the Same Production From Kelce

As the man once said, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” and the Kansas City Chiefs, the reigning Super Bowl Champs, are not broke, and a big reason for that is their 5th ranked passing attack, with Kelce being a huge part of that success.

With Kelce attempting to get open in the middle of the field, defenses have to split their attention away from the other Cheifs’ offensive threats, like speedy receivers Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and now Mecole Hardman, all capable deep threats (especially when not double-teamed), this combination of targets driving KC opponents crazy.

Offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy knows how to balance all of that like a maestro, so Kelce should remain an integral part of the system, but there is one factor that could change all that slightly, and that’s the result of the Chiefs’ first-round pick in the draft, LSU star running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

How Does Adding Rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire Affect Kelce?

It seems unlikely that any rookie added to the Chiefs’ roster would greatly affect the overall production of an effective veteran like Kelce, but there are ways a better running game in Kansas City might inherently do that.

Last season the Chiefs’ had the 23rd ranked rushing attack, so Kelce was targeted more to make up for that, but with Edwards-Helaire now in the backfield that could all change, especially if the rookie turns out to be the playmaker everyone expects him to be, which could lessen the total amount of times Kelce touches the ball.

The other way Kelce could be affected by an improved Kansas City run game is by the simple fact that it will necessitate him blocking a whole lot more and that increased physical contact throughout games could wear him out by the fourth quarter and over the season more so than having to run short receiver patterns untouched would, and then injury becomes a bigger possibility.

Why is Kelce’s NFL Success a Surprise to Some?

When you look at what it took Kelce to get to the NFL, it’s obvious the guy is a fighter who doesn’t let anyone else’s opinion prevent him from going for what he feels is his, starting with Rivals.com ranking him as just a 2-star recruit out of high school.

This means his college offers were not elite, but Kelce took a scholarship to the University of Cincinnati and made the best of it, at least enough to get selected in the third round of the 2013 NFL draft.

A knee injury kept him mostly off the field his rookie season, but since then Kelce has been on track to be one of the greatest at his position to ever play the game, his almost 71% catching percentage an indication of the value he brings to Kansas City offense, something that should be on full display in 2020.

Pick: Take the over here – Kelce is too valuable to this Kansas City offense to change how he has been used, and (barring injury) his numbers should just keep on accumulating, with Mahomes getting better at better and utilizing him on the field.