Thursday Night Football Week 9 Prop Bets: Joe Mixon Poised for a Heavy Workload

• Joe Mixon ran for 102 yards and 1 touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts last weekend

• New York Jets defense ranks below league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

• Houston’s defensive line ranks top-15 in Def Adjusted Sack Rate, Adjusted Line Yards, and Pressure Rate

With the recent injury to Stefon Diggs, the Houston Texans pass attack gets even more thin with Nico Collins still on IR. That bodes well for the New York Jets secondary as they get the benefit of throwing heavier coverage at Tank Dell while daring someone else to beat them. With the Texans' pass production expected to decline, running back Joe Mixon may be in for a big outing as one of the focal points of their offense.

As for the Jets' offense, they have yet to play at a competitive level since the acquisition of star wide receiver Davante Adams. Their offense may be in for another underwhelming performance as they draw a tough matchup on Thursday night with the Texans' defense ranking above league average in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. The Texans defensive line has been especially dominant as they enter the contest ranked top-15 in Def Adjusted Sack Rate, Adjusted Line Yards, and Pressure Rate.

As for where to wager on Thursday night’s slate of player props, Caesars Sportsbook has a wide range of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with Caesars Sportsbook, you can get up to $1,000 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first bet after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSN1000.

Joe Mixon Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook

After finishing last year ranked well below league average in most key rushing metrics, the Houston Texans were in desperate need of a three-down back who could bolster their rush production. That led to them trading for the Cincinnati Bengals Joe Mixon, giving them a dual-threat back who can burn opposing defenses on the ground and through the air. Mixon has already made an immediate impact for the Texans, averaging 100.6 rushing yards a game and 4.9 yards per carry.

Heading into Thursday night, Joe Mixon may be in for a heavier workload as the Texans' pass attack may regress after the latest injury to Stefon Diggs. Fortunately for Mixon, he will have the opportunity to run wild against the Jets' defense as their front seven currently ranks well below league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. Factor in a potential uptick in carries and Mixon will have a great opportunity to clear the over on his rushing yards prop.

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Breece Hall Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook

While Joe Mixon is in a position to thrive, the New York Jets Breece Hall may be in for a long night. Not only does Hall get the unfortunate favor of running behind an offensive line that ranks 32nd in Adjusted Line Yards, but he also faces off against a dominant run-stopping unit as the Texans rank above league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. With minimal opportunities to reach the second level of the defense, back the under on Hall’s rushing yards prop.

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CJ Stroud Longest Completion Under 35.5 Yards (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook 

With CJ Stroud being without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, generating pass production will be a struggle for the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year award winner. Tank Dell is still a productive receiver in his own right, yet he may struggle to create separation from the Jets secondary as they throw more help-side coverage at him. Stroud may also find himself with less time in the pocket to let plays develop as his offensive line ranks below league average in Adjusted Sack Rate and they are tasked with walling off a Jets front line who excel at creating pressure.

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Joe Mixon First Touchdown Scorer (+420) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

With the Texans' offense having a better chance of moving the ball down the field with an advantage on the ground, value shades towards Joe Mixon as he is their best path for success. Especially when in the red zone as keeping the ball on the ground negates the variance that comes with throwing into heavy coverage. Be sure to shop around when targeting a touchdown scorer prop as Joe Mixon to score the first touchdown can be found as high as +420 at FanDuel Sportsbook and as low as +340 at BetMGM Sportsbook.

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