Thursday Night Football Week 8 Prop Bets: Vikings Offense to Find Success on the Ground

• Aaron Jones is averaging 73.8 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry

• Minnesota’s offensive line ranks top-10 in Adjusted Line Yards

• The Los Angeles Rams front seven ranks near dead last in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

After swiftly climbing up the oddsboard as a viable contender for the Super Bowl, the Minnesota Vikings were knocked back down to reality after a narrow loss to the Detroit Lions last weekend. They now hit the road to play the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night, drawing a far more favorable matchup as the Rams defense has continued to play as one of the worst units in the league.

The Rams inability to stop the run bodes well for the Vikings as their ground game ranks top-10 in Rush Success Rate and Adjusted Line Yards when in the middle of the field. Factor in Minnesota being on short rest while having to travel across the country and Jones may be asked to shoulder a heavier workload as their playbook is potentially restricted. This all feeds into his rushing props, making him the main player to target for Thursday night’s primetime matchup.

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Aaron Jones Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Arguably no one on the Vikings offense comes into Thursday night with more momentum on their side than their running back Aaron Jones after he gashed the Lions stout front seven to the tune of 93 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown. A great performance when factoring in how well the Lions defend against the run, now drawing a more favorable matchup against the Rams as their defense ranks near dead last across the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

The Rams' defensive line is largely to blame for their struggles with limiting opposing rush production as they enter the contest ranked well below league average in Def Adjusted Line Yards. That means their front line is routinely getting pushed back from the opening snap, creating higher-quality rushing lanes for opposing running backs to exploit. With the Vikings' offensive line excelling at opening holes in the trenches as a dominant run-blocking unit, expect Jones to string together another productive outing.

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Aaron Jones Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, Aaron Jones should be heavily featured as the focal point of their offense as he will be in a position to run for sizable gains at a time with each carry. The Vikings are also forced to play on short rest while on the road, potentially reverting to a more simplistic game plan. Should the Vikings also build up a sizable lead with massive advantages on both sides of the ball, then their offense will call a heavier dose of the run in a late game script to help drain the clock.

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Matthew Stafford Longest Completion Under 34.5 Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Not only do the Rams mightily struggle on defense, but generating pass production has been a battle for their injury-riddled offense as they currently rank below league average in Pass DVOA and EPA. Generating pass production will once again be a struggle for their offense as the Vikings' heavy use of cover four and the blitz will have Stafford constantly guessing while under relentless pressure. To help combat against it, expect plenty of quick outs for minimal gains while hardly threatening to burn this under.

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Matthew Stafford Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-152) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

With the Rams' offense prone to stalling out against a defense who ranks near the top of the board in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate, they may find themselves with limited scoring opportunities. In the off chance they do make it to the red zone, the Rams would be better off abusing the run to help limit the variance that comes with throwing against the Vikings' exotic defensive scheme. Especially when their ground game continues to excel when in scoring position, ranking top-5 in Rush EPA.

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