Thursday Night Football Week 7 Picks: Expect a Lack of Offense Between Two Injury Riddled Units

• Spencer Rattler is expected to make his second start while Derek Carr is out with an injury

• Rattler threw for 243 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions last week against the Bucs

• Denver’s defense ranks above league average in DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

After getting off to a hot start to their year, the New Orleans Saints' momentum has come crashing to a halt after their quarterback Derek Carr suffered an injury. Before last week’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Spencer Rattler at quarterback, the Saints' offense was one of the more productive units in the league as they ranked 12th overall in Pass DVOA and 8th in Rush DVOA. To make matters worse for the Saints offense, star wide receiver Chris Olave is also out after suffering a concussion.

That applies serious pressure to Spencer Rattler who is projected to make his second start of the season, especially when having to throw against one of the best defenses in the league. Entering Thursday night, the Broncos' defense ranks above league average in both Def Pass and Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. The issue for Denver is that their offense has yet to give them the support they need to be a well-rounded unit, putting them in low-scoring affairs due to their inability to move the ball down the field.

As for where to wager on Thursday night’s primetime matchup between the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints, BetMGM Sportsbook has been the front-runner for the NFL as they offer an abundance of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM, you can get up to $1,500 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

Under 37.5 (-115) at BetMGM

Not only does Spencer Rattler get the unfortunate task of having to throw against one of the best secondaries in the league, but surging NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate Bo Nix is also tasked with having to combat against a productive defense. Other than limiting rush production when backed into the red zone, the Saints' defense have graded out well across the board as they rank above league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate while their front seven ranks 12th in Def Rush DVOA.

Heading into Thursday, the Saints' defense gets the benefit of defending against one of the worst units in the league as Denver struggles in nearly every area of the offense. Entering their matchup against the Saints, the Broncos offense ranks near dead last in Off Pass DVOA and Off Rush DVOA. They do grade out well in Off Rush Success Rate, potentially being their best path for securing the win. By abusing the run, expect the clock to constantly drain while limiting each other's number of offensive possessions to the benefit of the under.

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New Orleans Saints Team Total Under 19.5 (-105) at BetMGM

While the Broncos' offense has at least some resemblance of a path for success, the Saints will be hard-pressed to consistently move the ball down the field as Denver’s defense has no glaring weaknesses. Their near league high pressure rate will force Rattler into uncomfortable situations, most likely resulting in balls in the dirt and ill-advised sacks to lessen the chance of moving the sticks. Their ground game will also struggle to command defensive attention towards the middle, having to run against a front seven who ranks third in Def Rush Success Rate and eighth in Def Adjusted Line Yards.

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Broncos +7.5 / Lions +8.5 Six Point Teaser (-134) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

With a potential decrease in scoring opportunities, value shades towards the underdog covering the spread. With the Broncos being currently listed at +1.5 in some sportsbooks, they make for the perfect Wong teaser piece as you can get them to cross through the key numbers of +3 and +7 in a six point teaser.

As for who to pair with them, the Detroit Lions make for an interesting teaser option as their defense should be able to stall out the red-hot Minnesota Vikings offense. Establishing the run may also be their best path for success, negating the Vikings' pressure while limiting the negative variance that comes from Goff’s arm when throwing in a collapsed pocket. Should you want to use someone else as a teaser piece, the Washington Commanders and Buffalo Bills are also intriguing options to pair with the Broncos.

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