Thursday Night Football Prop Bets Week 6: Geno Smith to Struggle Against the 49ers Pressure

• Geno Smith ranks above league average in Quarterback EPA per Play and PFF Grade

• The Seattle Seahawks' offensive line ranks below the league average in Adjusted Line Yards

• The San Francisco 49ers front four ranks first overall in Adjusted Sack Rate

After entering the year as a heavy favorite to win the NFC West division title, as well as being listed as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, the San Francisco 49ers have got off to a rough start by going 2-3 in the first five games of their season. Two of their losses are especially alarming as they came against the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals, two teams who were sizable underdogs in both contests.

Fortunately for San Francisco, they have an opportunity to bounce back against the injury-riddled Seattle Seahawks as their defensive line will be in a position to routinely collapse their pocket. Their front four continues to be the strength of their defense, entering the contest ranked first overall in Adjusted Sack Rate and 12th in Pressure. With Geno Smith under constant duress, the Seahawks' offense will mightily struggle in their efforts of moving the ball down the field through the air.

As for where to wager on Thursday night’s primetime divisional matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks, BetMGM Sportsbook has an abundance of props for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM Sportsbook, you can get up to $1,500 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

Geno Smith Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-120) at BetMGM

With the Seahawks' offensive line grading out poorly in Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate, Geno Smith will be under constant pressure against one of the best defensive lines in the league. This may drastically halt their offense in their efforts of moving the ball down the field into the red zone, limiting their number of scoring opportunities in the process.

To make matters worse for the Seahawks' offense, their ground game will be unable to take advantage of the 49ers' vulnerable front seven as they equally struggle with generating rush production. Entering Thursday night’s contest against the 49ers, the Seahawks offense ranks below league average in Rush Success Rate which indicates they fail to cover at least half the distance to gain on first down. With no ability to shift the Niners' second level of their defense, expect Geno Smith to struggle with throwing against the Niners' coverage. 

Use WSNSPORTS at BetMGM for $1,500 Bonus

Geno Smith Longest Completion Under 35.5 Yards (-115) at BetMGM

Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, the Seahawks' receivers will find themselves with less time to create separation from the 49ers' secondary while Geno Smith is under pressure. Creating high-quality passing lanes is already a tough enough task as the 49ers defensive scheme anchors their linebackers in coverage. 

That means more bodies spread across the middle to help cover more ground while their front four forces opposing quarterbacks to throw into tighter windows. Factor in the negative variance that comes with throwing the ball when under pressure and the Seahawks will be hard-pressed to connect on an explosive play. The 49ers back end also excels at keeping opposing playmakers in front of them, crashing down to the ball carrier at the point of contact. 

Join BetMGM for $1,500 in Bonus Bets

Jordan Mason Anytime Touchdown (-150) at FanDuel

With Christian McCaffrey still out with an injury, Jordan Mason will continue to see a healthy amount of carries as the 49ers lead back. He has excelled in his five starts so far this season, averaging 107.2 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. With the Seahawks' offense prone to getting pushed off the field in early outs, Mason should continue to receive a heavy workload with an uptick in offensive possessions. Especially if the 49ers get off to a sizable lead, reverting to a run-heavy game script to help drain the clock.

This prop is also a reminder to always line shop when making any type of wager as Jordan Mason’s odds to score a touchdown widely vary between each sportsbook. As of writing, the odds on Mason to score a touchdown can be found as low as -150 at FanDuel Sportsbook and as high as -190 at Caesars Sportsbook. That is a difference of $40 in a tied-up wager for a $100 bettor while returning the same amount of profit should he score a touchdown.

Win $5 Wager, Get $300 in Bonus Bets at FanDuel