The Seattle Seahawks are currently in first place in the NFC West standings
The San Francisco 49ers are still the betting favorite to win the NFC West division title
Seahawks' offensive line ranks below the league average in Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate
After the San Francisco 49ers lost to the Arizona Cardinals, the Seattle Seahawks were presented with an opportunity to create more separation at the top of the NFC West standings with a favorable matchup against the New York Giants. Unfortunately for Seattle, they squandered their chances of strengthening their lead for first after losing to the lowly Giants 29-20. Their secondary struggled to limit the Giants' pass attack as Daniel Jones finished the contest throwing for 257 yards and 2 passing touchdowns.
Now just one game back from Seattle, the Niners have the opportunity to reclaim their lead for first in a primetime matchup on Thursday night. Even with multiple players dealing with injuries, the 49ers have still managed to play at a competitive level due to their elite depth. With the Niners' defensive line in a position to consistently push back a Seahawks' offensive line that ranks below average in Adjusted Line Yards, expect early outs from Seattle while the Niners' offense receives an uptick in their number of possessions.
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With the Seahawks' offensive line continuing to grade out poorly in Adjusted Line Yards, they will be prone to crumbling against the Niners' pass rush as San Francisco’s defensive line enters the contest ranked first overall in Adjusted Sack Rate and 12th in Pressure. To make matters worse for Seattle’s vaunted pass attack, their ground game will struggle to command defensive attention to the middle of the field as the Seahawks' rush attack ranks 21st in Rush Success Rate and 18th in Rush EPA.
With their offense poised to get pushed off the field in early outs, the Seahawks will be prone to falling behind on the scoreboard as the Niners offense receives an uptick in possessions. Especially if their secondary continues to struggle in coverage, coming off a disastrously bad performance against the New York Giants who were without NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year contender Malik Nabers. Back the Niners at no higher than -3 as their versatile pass attack should thrive against the Seahawks' regressing secondary.
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As alluded to in the previous wager, the Seahawks offense will be in a position to struggle as their offensive line continues to rank poorly in Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate. With Geno Smith under constant pressure, the Seahawks will find it tough to sustain drives down the field and into scoring territory. Especially if the Niners can continue to create pressure with just their front four, allowing their linebackers to anchor in coverage to help slow down the Seahawks receiving trio of DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett.
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Should you want to bypass the Niners at the number and just bet them to win straight up instead, then they make for an intriguing two-team moneyline parlay piece at their current odds. Especially if they get steamed off the key number of -3, drastically lowering the quality of their spread. Even with their back end dealing with injuries, their defensive line should still be able to stall out the Seahawks' offense while their own unit sets a scoring pace too fast for Seattle to keep up with.
As for who to pair with the 49ers, the Baltimore Ravens make for a valuable parlay piece as they host the surging Washington Commanders after squeaking out a win against the Cincinnati Bengals. While the Commanders' offense has been one of the more explosive units in the league, they will be prone to falling back down to reality against a Ravens defense who ranks top-10 in both Rush and Pass Def DVOA. Factor in Washington’s inability to stop the run and Baltimore’s offense should have no issue with consistently moving the ball down the field.
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