Thursday Night Football Prop Bets Week 5: Bucs Pass Attack to Continue to Thrive

• Baker Mayfield is averaging 246 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns per game this season

• The Atlanta Falcons front seven ranks well below league average in Pass Rush Win Rate

• The Falcons offense will be without two starting offensive lineman due to injury

After entering the year projected to regress due to an underwhelming offseason, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have got off to a hot start and are currently in sole possession of first place in the NFC South division standings. Baker Mayfield continues to play at a high level since revitalizing his career in Tampa, averaging 246 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns per game while ranking well above the league average in EPA per Play.

Heading into Thursday, Mayfield will have the opportunity to continue to succeed as he faces off against a Falcons defense who struggles with defending the pass. Especially in regard to collapsing the pocket, entering the contest ranked near dead last in both Pass Rush Win Rate and PFF Grade. Not only does the Falcons' inability to generate pressure bode well for Baker Mayfield, but it also opens up running lanes for the Bucs ground game as the second level of Atlanta’s defense will be anchored in coverage.

As for where to wager on Thursday night’s primetime divisional matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons, FanDuel Sportsbook has a wide range of props for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with FanDuel, you can claim $200 in bonus bets by creating an account and making an initial wager of at least $5.

Baker Mayfield Over 239.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

A big reason for the Bucs' early season success stems from their quarterback play as Baker Mayfield continues to thrive since joining Tampa Bay. In four games this season, Mayfield ranks top-10 in Quarterback PFF Grade and EPA per Play. Even when playing behind an offensive line that has struggled in pass protection, Mayfield has had no issue connecting with his cast of pass catchers as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin continue to excel at creating separation from opposing defenders in the open field.

Heading into this matchup, Mayfield should find himself in a clean pocket at a more consistent rate as the Falcons' front seven has struggled with generating a pass rush. In four games played, the Falcons' defense ranks near dead last in both Pass Rush Win Rate and PFF Grade. With a clean pocket, as well as extra time for his pass catchers to create separation from opposing coverage, Mayfield should string together another efficient outing through the air.

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Bucky Irving Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Not only will Baker Mayfield be in a favorable position to succeed against the Falcons' defense, but their ground game will also have the opportunity to help sustain drives down the field. Especially with the Falcons' secondary stretched out against the Bucs' pass attack, opening wider running lanes for their running backs to exploit when they reach the second level of their defense.

While Bucky Irving has yet to leap over Rachaad White for the starting running back role, it’s hard to ignore how much more efficient he has been as he is averaging 5.8 yards per carry to White’s 2.8. Rush production was practically non-existent for the Bucs last season with White as their lead back, finishing the year ranked 29th in Rush DVOA, 28th in EPA, and 32nd in Success Rate. Should Irving continue to outpace White, then we may see the rookie running back continue to increase his workload to help clear this over.

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Kirk Cousins Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-140) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

On the other side of the field, Kirk Cousins will potentially be dealing with pressure all game long as his starting center Drew Dalman and right tackle Kaleb McGary are out with an injury. The Falcons offensive line already struggled in pass protection as they rank below league average in True Pass Set Grade, now poised to regress even more with their backups being as a sizable drop off in production.

With the Falcons pass attack potentially sputtering, scoring opportunities may come at a premium. The Bucs' offense being in a position to move the ball down the field at a consistent rate also applies pressure to the Falcons as they will need to capitalize on their scoring opportunities to stay within the scoring pace. In order to do so, we may see Atlanta turn toward their running back Bijan Robinson to punch it in on the ground to help negate the variance that comes with throwing into heavier coverage while in a collapsing pocket.

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