Thursday Night Football Week 5 Picks: Back the Underdogs on Primetime

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the current leaders in the NFC South division standings

• Baker Mayfield ranks above league average in Quarterback PFF Grade and EPA per Play

• Atlanta’s front seven is near dead last in both Pass Rush Win Rate and PFF Grade

Fresh off of an impressive win against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look to pad their lead for first in the NFC South in a primetime divisional matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. Baker Mayfield has continued to play at a high level four weeks into the season, entering the contest ranked well above league average in Quarterback EPA per Play and PFF Grade while the Bucs offense as a whole clocks in at the top-10 in Offensive EPA per Play.

In a highly anticipated contest against the Falcons, the Bucs offense will be in a position to continue to succeed as Mayfield should get the benefit of throwing in a clean pocket. Generating pressure in pass sets has been an issue for Atlanta’s front seven as they rank near dead last in both Pass Rush Win Rate and PFF Grade. Factor in Tampa’s defensive line getting the opportunity to push back against an injury-riddled offensive line and the Bucs will be in a position to get the big win on Thursday night.

As for where to wager on Thursday night’s NFC South divisional matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons, FanDuel Sportsbook has been the top choice for the NFL as they offer an abundance of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with FanDuel, you can claim $200 in bonus bets after creating an account and making an initial wager of at least $5.

Buccaneers Team Total Over 20.5 (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

With Baker Mayfield continuing to play at a high level, as well as getting the benefit of throwing in a clean pocket, expect the Bucs offense to move the ball down the field into scoring territory at a consistent rate. Especially with his star-studded duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin getting extra time in the open field to create separation from the Falcons secondary, giving Mayfield higher-quality passing lanes for him to throw to.

The Bucs' ground game may also be in a position to play at a more productive rate after finishing last season ranked near dead last across the board in Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Stopping the run has also been an issue for Atlanta as their front seven ranks below average in Run Defense Win Rate. With Bucky Irving averaging over five yards per carry, we may see a breakout game for the Bucs' rookie running back as he gets the opportunity to run wild against a stretched-out Falcons secondary who will already have their hands full with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

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Buccaneers Moneyline (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook 

With the Bucs' offense in a position to succeed, they make for an intriguing pick to win outright as the Falcons may struggle to stay within their scoring pace. Especially with Atlanta’s offensive line failing to give Kirk Cousins the protection he needs as they rank in the bottom half of the board in True Pass Protection Grade. To make matters worse for the Falcons, starting center Drew Dalman and right tackle Kaleb McGary are both out with injuries and the drop-off in production to their backups is massive.

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Buccaneers +7.5 / 49ers -1.5 Six Point Teaser (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

The Bucs also make for a valuable Wong Teaser piece as they cross through the key numbers of +3 and +7 when used in a six-point teaser. They have the offense to pull away, but their secondary may be prone to conceding sizable gains at a time should their front seven fail to take advantage of the Falcons' hobbled offensive line. This also helps eliminate the chance of losing your bet by a game-winning field goal in an era where kickers are consistently converting from farther distances.

As for the 49ers, their injury-riddled offense will get the fortunate favor of playing against a Cardinals defense who ranks near dead last in Def EPA per Play, Pass Rush Win Rate, Pass Rush PFF Grade, and Run Defense Win Rate. Even with clear advantages on both sides of the field, it’s a safer option to use San Francisco as a teaser piece as the injury uncertainty with Fred Warner and Talanoa Hufanga may leave their defense vulnerable enough for the Cardinals' explosive offense to stay within scoring pace.

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