Thursday Night Football Prop Bets Week 4: Expect an Efficient Dallas Pass Attack

• Dak Prescott ranks below the league average in EPA per Play and PFF Grade

• CeeDee Lamb comfortably paces the rest of the team in total targets

• Jake Ferguson has made his return from injury and gives Prescott another reliable pass catcher in the red zone

After making a statement in their season opener against the Cleveland Browns, the Dallas Cowboys have fallen hard back down to reality after two straight losses to the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens. Even in a loss, the Cowboys' offense enters week four with some momentum as they looked noticeably better in the second half against the Ravens after moving the ball down the field at a more consistent rate.

Heading into Thursday, the Cowboys offense will have the opportunity to build on their momentum as they face off against a middling New York Giants defense. While the Giants' front seven does rank well in PFF Grade, negative regression looms large as they tick down to below average in Pass Rush Win Rate and Def Series Conversion Rate. Factor in the Cowboys' offensive line being more than capable of negating their pressure and Dak Prescott should find himself in a clean pocket to help pick apart their secondary.

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Dak Prescott Over 23.5 Pass Completions (-115) at BetMGM

Even after carving up the Ravens defense to the result of 379 passing yards and two passing touchdowns, a heavy workload has masked Prescott’s poor efficiency marks as he enters week four ranked well below league average in EPA per Play and PFF Grade. A shockingly bad level of play after finishing his 2023 campaign ranked near the top of the board in both metrics. Fortunately for Prescott, he gets the opportunity to round back into form as he picks apart a porous Giants secondary.

Not only has the Giants' back end struggled in coverage, but their front seven will also be hard-pressed to maintain their competitive marks in Pass Rush Win Rate as they are set to face off against a Cowboys offensive line who ranks 14th overall in True Pass Set Grade. This gives Prescott a clean pocket to work with, increasing the quality of his throws to result in a higher completion percentage. Factor in an uptick in offensive possessions and this prop will also benefit from another high-volume pass attack.

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CeeDee Lamb Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at BetMGM

Speaking of volume, NFL Offensive Player of the Year contender CeeDee Lamb has seen his fair share of targets three games into the season as he averages eight targets per game. His heavy workload was largely expected entering the season as he is the Cowboys' only surefire source of receiving production in a thinned-out receiving room.

Against a weak Giants secondary, as well as the benefit of Prescott throwing in a clean pocket, expect CeeDee Lamb to be in a favorable position to clear the over on his receiving yards. Especially with the return of tight end Jake Ferguson, shading opposing coverage away from Lamb as Ferguson has also been a reliable target for Prescott to throw to. With less double coverage and help side support from safeties, Lamb should have no issue with creating separation in the open field.

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Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown (+270) at FanDuel

As for Jake Ferguson, he has picked up right where he left off after sitting out a week with an injury. A big-bodied tight end who excels at plugging gaps in coverage across the middle, Ferguson has been a reliable target for the Cowboys offense when in scoring position. With the Giants' secondary having their hands full with Lamb, that should continue to open the field elsewhere for Ferguson to exploit.

Maximizing their scoring opportunities will be vital for Dallas as they are in desperate need of a bounce-back performance after a slow start to their year. Factor in the Cowboys ground game struggling to generate rush production and Ferguson should see an uptick in targets which also increases the chance of cashing this prop. Throwing the ball remains to be their best option for success, feeding into Ferguson’s anytime touchdown scorer prop.

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