Thursday Night Football Week 4 Picks: Expect the Cowboys to Round Back Into Form

• Dallas failed to complete their comeback in a 28-25 loss to Baltimore last week

• The Cowboys' ground game was held to just 51 total rushing yards against the Ravens' front seven

• The New York Giants won outright as a +6.5 underdog against the Cleveland Browns

After dominating the Cleveland Browns in their season opener, the Dallas Cowboys have quickly fallen back down to reality after two straight losses to the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens. In both of their losses, the Cowboys' defense has played at an alarmingly bad rate as they enter week four ranked 29th overall in Def EPA per Play. Without help from their defense, the Cowboys will continue to be put in high-variance situations which hurts their chances of stringing together a win streak.

Fortunately for Dallas, their defense has the perfect opportunity to bounce back as they are set to face off against the lowly New York Giants offense Thursday night. Even after a shocking outright win against the Browns as a +6.5 underdog, the Giants' offense has still struggled to play at a competitive rate as they rank well below league average in Off DVOA and EPA per Play. With their defense in a position to give them the production they need, back the Cowboys to round back into form in a dominant fashion.

As for where to wager on Thursday night’s NFC East divisional matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, FanDuel Sportsbook has been the front-runner for the NFL as they offer a wide range of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds when compared to the rest of the mobile apps. If you have not signed up yet with FanDuel Sportsbook, you can claim $200 in bonus bets after creating an account and making an initial wager of at least $5.

Dallas Cowboys -4.5 (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

While it’s still worth waiting to see if the Cowboys dip down to the key number of -4, I don’t mind a wager on their current spread of -4.5 as this is a gross overreaction after last week’s results. Especially when just focusing on how the Cowboys looked in the second half against Baltimore, beating the Ravens 19-7 while generating more consistency on offense. Their offense now draws a more favorable matchup against a Giants defense that struggles in all three levels of the field.

Speaking of defense, Thursday’s contest against the Giants gives the Cowboys back end an opportunity to round back into form after two straight underwhelming outings. Especially in terms of generating pressure as the Giants offensive line continues to play as one of the worst units in the league. Run blocking has been a major issue for New York as they rank well below league average in Run Block Win Rate. Expect a bounce-back performance from the Cowboys' defense, holding the Giants' anemic offense to minimal success while their own unit sets a scoring pace too fast for them to keep up with.

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Cowboys First Half Team Total Over 12.5 (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

With expectations of the Cowboys offense carrying over their second-half momentum into Thursday’s contest against the Giants, Dallas should continue to move the ball down the field and into scoring position at a consistent rate from the opening kick. Especially with their ground game in a position to complement their pass attack, getting the opportunity to gain ground against a Giants front seven who ranks below league average in Run Defense Win Rate and PFF Grade. With a more well-rounded offense, expect an uptick in scoring opportunities to help clear their team total over.

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Cowboys / Chiefs Moneyline Parlay (-102) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

On top of betting on the Cowboys to cover the spread, their moneyline is also within range of being a valuable piece for a two-team moneyline parlay. This negates the possibility of getting hooked as a -4.5 favorite, just needing the Cowboys to win straight up instead. With their defense in a position to round back into form to help complement their offense, the Cowboys will be in a great position to secure the win.

As for the Chiefs, they are the best option on the board to pair with the Cowboys as they get a favorable matchup against an injury-riddled Los Angeles Chargers squad who may be without star quarterback Justin Herbert. Even if Herbert is good to go, he will be without both of his starting tackles which poses a serious issue for their offense as he will be under relentless pressure against a blitz-heavy Chiefs defense.

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