Thursday Night Football Prop Bets Week 2: Expect a Heavy Dose of the Run

• The Miami Dolphins enter Thursday night’s contest against the Buffalo Bills as a -2 favorite

• The total continues to steam down to 49 after opening as high as 51

• The weather forecast on Thursday calls for heavy winds and a strong chance of rain

Entering the year, it was expected that the Buffalo Bills offense would take a step back after an underwhelming offseason that witnessed the departure of star wide receiver Stefon Diggs. With a barren group of pass catchers, the Bills would shift their offense to be a more run-heavy unit. That was apparent in game one against the Arizona Cardinals as James Cook had 19 rush attempts while Josh Allen added another 9 carries.

With Thursday night’s AFC East divisional showdown calling for heavy winds and a strong chance of rain, we may see another heavy dose of the run from the Bills. By calling the run, this allows the Bills to control the time of possession while also keeping the ball out of Tua’s hands as the Miami offense can put up points in a flash. This shades value towards the Bills rushing related player props, making that the theme of our list of player props.

As for where to wager on Thursday night’s player props for the primetime matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins, FanDuel Sportsbook has a wide range of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with FanDuel Sportsbook, you can claim $200 in bonus bets as well as three weeks of NFL Sunday Ticket after creating an account and making an initial wager of at least $5.

James Cook Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

With a potential uptick in rush attempts, James Cook may be in for a heavy workload which shades value towards his player props. As the Bills' three-down back, Cook now gets the opportunity to shred a thinned-out Miami interior of their defense. Stopping the run was an issue for Miami last season as they finished the year ranked 21st in Def Rush DVOA, 14th in Success Rate, and 15th in EPA, and their struggles looked to have bled over into this season after letting Jacksonville’s Tank Bigsby average 6.1 yards per carry in week one.

While an argument can be made Miami’s defense will get the benefit of stacking the box at a heavier rate to help slow down the Bills' rush attack, Josh Allen’s presence as an elite dual-threat quarterback will command defensive attention which frees up the second level of the defense for James Cook. Whether it’s via designed runs or quarterback scrambles, Miami can ill-afford to anchor their linebackers in the middle with their focus solely on the running back. Expect Cook to continue to succeed on the ground, clearing the over on his rushing yards prop.

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James Cook Anytime Touchdown (+150) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

Not only will Cook receive more carries in the middle of the field, but he should also receive an uptick in red zone carries as well. Especially with poor weather conditions hampering the quality of their drives down the field, making scoring opportunities even more vital as they may come far and few in-between.

By calling the run in the red zone, this also limits the variance that comes from Josh Allen’s arm as he still makes ill-advised decisions when throwing into tight windows. With scoring opportunities potentially coming at a premium, the Bills will need to maximize their scoring chances by limiting as much variance as they can. Josh Allen is also a threat of carrying it in himself, making his anytime touchdown prop also worth a wager if you want to diversify your portfolio.

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Josh Allen Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-150) at BetMGM

As previously mentioned, scoring opportunities should come far and few in-between for the Buffalo Bills in their contest against the Miami Dolphins. Poor weather will play a major factor as the Bills will potentially revert to a heavier dose of the run, draining the clock and limiting their number of offensive possessions in the process.

With fewer scoring opportunities comes a higher chance of cashing this under, especially since the Bills will want to avoid the variance that comes from his arm in their minimal scoring opportunities. The Bills defense is also expected to give the Dolphins offense fits as they can crash the pocket with just their front four while anchoring their back end in coverage, limiting the chance for a late game pass heavy game script should they fall comfortably behind.

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