The Baltimore Ravens are a half-game back from first in the AFC North division standings
The Ravens beat the Cincinnati Bengals 41-38 earlier in the year
Star wide receiver Tee Higgins is currently listed as questionable on the Bengals injury report
After narrowly beating the Cincinnati Bengals in overtime earlier in the year, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens have the opportunity to make it a clean sweep on Thursday night. While the Ravens are just a half-game back from the Pittsburgh Steelers for first place in the AFC North division standings, the Bengals are 2.5 games back and are currently out of the playoff picture as well. With little to no room for error, the Bengals can ill-afford to lose again on Thursday night.
Fortunately for Joe Burrow, the Bengals pass attack will have the opportunity to thrive as the Ravens secondary continues to struggle in coverage. An oddity after years of fielding a dominant defense, yet the Ravens enter the contest ranked near dead last in Def Pass Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA. Should their star wide receiver Tee Higgins be able to make his return from injury, then the Ravens secondary will be hard-pressed to stop them in what may be another high-scoring thriller between two division rivals.
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With the Baltimore Ravens offense firing on all cylinders, the Cincinnati Bengals will have to match their scoring pace in order to avoid falling even further behind in the AFC Conference playoff standings. Luckily for Cincinnati, the Bengals' offense is more than capable of exploiting the Ravens' gaps in coverage as Joe Burrow continues to rank near the top of the board in quarterback EPA per Play and PFF Grade while their pass attack as a whole ranks top-10 in Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.
That spells disaster for the Ravens' defense as their back end continues to underwhelm in coverage, entering Thursday ranked well below league average in the same previously mentioned metrics. Even their front line has struggled to generate pressure as the Ravens also rank in the bottom half of the board in Adjusted Sack Rate and Pressure Rate. With a clean pocket, as well as potentially getting Tee Higgins back from injury, expect Joe Burrow to get the Bengals into scoring position at a consistent rate.
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Not only will the Bengals' offense be presented with plenty of scoring opportunities, but the Baltimore Ravens should face minimal resistance in their efforts of moving the ball down the field while Lamar Jackson continues to build his case for the NFL MVP Award. Especially with the Bengals' defense struggling to defend against either area of the offense as Cincinnati enters the contest ranked well below league average across the board in both Def Pass and Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.
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Even with the Ravens secondary struggling to slow down opposing pass attacks, their defense still gets the benefit of fielding a dominant run-stopping unit. Should their front line be able to neutralize the Bengals' rush production, then we may see the Ravens' linebacking unit cheat out in coverage to help lessen the quality of Joe Burrow’s passing lanes. Should the Bengals' offense slow down at all, then that opens the door for the Ravens to set a scoring pace too fast for them to keep up with.
As for who to pair with the Ravens, the San Francisco 49ers make for an ideal candidate as they are getting healthier at just the right time after a slow start to their season. Not only is former Offensive Player of the Year award winner Christian McCaffrey expected to make his return, but Deebo Samuel is also nearing 100% after being sidelined with a sickness two weeks ago. Factor in Tampa Bay’s offense being decimated by injuries and the Buccaneers may struggle to move the ball into scoring territory at a consistent rate.
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