The Baltimore Ravens acquired star running back Derrick Henry in the offseason
Kansas City Chiefs' front seven expected to struggle with stopping the run again
Travis Kelce gets the opportunity to burn a Ravens' regressing linebacking unit
While the Baltimore Ravens offseason was underwhelming to say the least, they did manage to beef up their ground game with the acquisition of star running back Derrick Henry in free agency. The Ravens have backed their success over the past few years on their ability to dominate on the ground, now going back to their roots with Henry and reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson leading the charge.
Their rush attack will be in a position to immediately succeed, especially if the Chiefs front seven continues to struggle with stopping the run as we saw last year. That was their best course of success in last year’s AFC Conference Championship matchup against Kansas City, yet the Ravens confusingly opted into a heavier dose of the pass with minimal success. Expect head coach John Harbaugh to learn from his mistake, abusing the ground game to the benefit of Derrick Henry’s player props.
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After experimenting with a more versatile pass attack last season, the Baltimore Ravens offense looks to be going back to their roots by establishing their dominance on the ground this year. That was apparent after the signing of star running back Derrick Henry in the offseason, giving them a three down back who continues to impose his will against opposing front sevens. A successful ground attack has been a staple for the Ravens over the past few years, dominating time of possession while limiting opposing offensive possessions.
With the Chiefs expected to be even more explosive on offense this year, the Ravens' best course of success will be reliant on them controlling the pace and keeping the ball out of Patrick Mahomes hands. That directly feeds into Derrick Henry’s rush attempts as he may hear his name called a healthy amount. Especially since he is in a position to immediately succeed as the Chiefs front seven is projected to struggle with stopping the run, fielding a similar unit that ranked near dead last in Def Rush DVOA and Success Rate last season.
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Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, an increase in rush attempts comes with a higher chance of breaking one off. Especially when up against a front seven that struggled to limit opposing rush production in the trenches, now having to go against the most physical running back in the nation.
The Chiefs' defense can also ill-afford to stack the box at a heavy rate which will give Henry more room to work with as their outside linebackers will be widened out to help spy the dangerous dual-threat quarterback Lamar Jackson. Jackson is head and shoulders better than the rest of the league in terms of his running ability, putting added stress on opposing linebacking units as he can burn them with a designed run to the outside should the Chiefs get caught cheating by crashing the interior.
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On the other side of the field, the Chiefs' star tight end Travis Kelce will also find himself in a position to succeed as he gets the benefit of plugging the gaps in the Ravens' coverage due to a stretched-out secondary. Even while potentially without Hollywood Brown due to injury, the Chiefs' newly acquired Xavier Worthy is expected to be an instant impact player for their offense as the Chiefs use his blistering fast speed to get behind the secondary.
Factor in Rashee Rice continuing to develop as a reliable first option for Mahomes at receiver, and the Chiefs' offense has more productive weapons in their pass attack than they have in years past. The uptick in production at receiver directly affects Kelce’s quality of opposing coverage as secondaries will no longer be able to bracket Kelce in the middle while sitting in man coverage on the outside. Expect Kelce to abuse any gap in coverage while roaming through the middle, taking advantage of any single coverage he may receive.
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