Thursday Night Football Prop Bets Week 16: Fade Justin Herbert Against the Broncos Suffocating Coverage

• The Denver Broncos have blown past their projected win total of 5.5

• The Los Angeles Chargers have a two game lead for the last wildcard spot in the playoffs

• Denver’s secondary ranks top-10 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

With a preseason win total of 5.5, the Denver Broncos have far exceeded expectations and are just one win away from securing a spot in the playoffs. Their defense has played a major role in their success this season as the Broncos currently rank top-10 in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. In an AFC West divisional matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, expect the Broncos' defense to give Justin Herbert fits with their suffocating coverage while their front line consistently collapses the pocket.

Not only is Justin Herbert in a position to struggle, but Gus Edwards may also find it tough to generate rush production against a Broncos front seven who has excelled at stopping the run. Edwards has also started to concede some of his minimal carries to his back up Kimani Vidal, increasing the chances he stays under the listed total on his rushing yardage prop. On the other side of the field, expect the Broncos to lean on Javonte Williams when in the red zone to help capitalize on their scoring opportunities.

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Justin Herbert Under 230.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even with his star rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey back from injury, Justin Herbert struggled to generate pass production against the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary. Herbert now faces off against a far tougher defense on Thursday night as the Broncos back end currently ranks top-10 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Not only does their secondary excel in coverage, but the Broncos' front line also consistently generates pressure as Denver ranks third overall in Pressure Rate.

That spells potential disaster for Herbert in his efforts of rounding back into form as he may be under relentless pressure for a majority of the contest. Especially with his protection struggling to hold their ground as the Chargers' offensive line ranks near dead last in Adjusted Sack Rate. While under pressure, Herbert will be forced to extend plays with his legs while throwing into tight coverage which drastically lessens the chance of his receivers making the reception.

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Gus Edwards Under 38.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook

To make matters worse for the Chargers offense, the Broncos have also excelled at stopping the run as their front seven currently ranks near the top of the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. With the Chargers offensive line ranking near dead last in Run Block, that indicates they struggle with opening up high quality rushing lanes for their ground game to exploit. Expect Gus Edwards to be contained in the trenches, shading value towards the under on his rushing yardage prop.

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Justin Herbert Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-185) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

With the Chargers expected to struggle with sustaining drives down the field, scoring opportunities may come at a premium. In the off chance the Chargers do get into the red zone, then they may revert to the run to maximize their chances of scoring. This helps limit the variance that comes with throwing into heavy coverage, especially when the Broncos get the benefit of stretching out in the shortened field. With each carry, Herbert loses out on a pass attempt which increases the chances of him staying under this total.

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Javonte Williams Anytime Touchdown (+175) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

As for the Broncos, their best course for success on offense revolves around their ground game as the Chargers' front seven ranks below league average in Def Adjusted Line Yards. Their inability to create contact in the trenches has allowed opposing running backs to get to the second level of their defense at a consistent rate. In a contest that is projected to feature a minimal amount of scoring opportunities, expect Denver to lean on Javonte Williams in an attempt to take advantage of the Chargers' weak defensive line.

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