Thursday Night Football Prop Bets Week 14: Expect a Quarterback Duel on Thursday Night

• Jared Goff’s odds to win the NFL MVP award continue to grow

• Detroit has a two game lead over Green Bay in the NFC North division standings

• The Packers' defense ranks near dead last in Def Pass Success Rate and Adjusted Sack Rate

After an 11-1 start to the season, the Detroit Lions are the current heavy betting favorite to win the NFC North division title while Jared Goff’s odds to win the NFL MVP award continue to grow. The Lions offense has been a well-oiled machine this year as they head into Thursday night ranked near the top of the board in Off DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Their offensive line has played a major role in their success as the Lions' front five currently ranks top-10 in Off Adjusted Sack Rate and Adjusted Line Yards.

In order to match the Lions' offensive output, the Packers' Jordan Love will need to continue to play at a high level. Since returning from injury, Love has steadily improved and has elevated the Packers offense as a whole. Better yet, the Lions' second level of their defense has been ravaged by injuries and will be stretched out thin in their efforts to cover the Packers' deep group of pass catchers. Expect Love to capitalize on his high-quality passing lanes, potentially resulting in an uptick in touchdowns as well.

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Jordan Love Over 21.5 Pass Completions (+100) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Speaking of Detroit’s injuries, Malcolm Rodriguez was the latest casualty after he suffered a season-ending injury against the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving. He joins a long list of players out on IR, leaving the Lions void of production at the second level of their defense. Their injuries were on full display in the second half against the Bears as Caleb Williams started to pick apart their gaps in coverage across the middle.

That spells potential disaster against Jordan Love and the Packers' offense as their deep group of pass catchers will create serious pressure against the Lions' injury-riddled defense. Especially if the Lions' defensive line continues to struggle with getting to the quarterback as their front four currently ranks 24th in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. Expect their woes with collapsing the pocket to continue as they face off against a Packers offensive line who ranks top-10 in Adjusted Sack Rate and Adjusted Line Yards.

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Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-128) at FanDuel Sportsbook

With Love expected to play in a clean pocket and generate methodical drives down the field at a consistent rate, the Packers quarterback will also receive an uptick in potential scoring opportunities. When in the red zone, the Packers may continue to call the pass to avoid stalling out against a Lions front seven who ranks near the top of the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Even in a shortened field, Love should still receive high-quality passing lanes against a thinned-out Lions secondary.

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Jared Goff Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

While the Packers front seven has steadily improved throughout the year, their secondary has continued to struggle in coverage when in the middle of the field as their back end ranks near dead last in Def Pass Success Rate. That indicates the Packers struggle to stop opposing pass attacks from cutting the distance to gain on early downs, as well as convert on third and fourth down. Expect Goff and company to exploit their weakness, leading to an uptick in pass attempts to help clear the over on his passing yards prop.

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David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown (-165) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

Even though the Packers' secondary has struggled when in the middle of the field, their back end has managed to step up their level of play when backed up into the red zone. Unfortunately the same can not be said in regard to stopping the run as their defense is just league average in Def Rush EPA and DVOA. That bodes well for the Lions bull back David Montgomery who excels at churning out yards after making contact, giving him a great opportunity to burst past the line and punch one in.

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