Thursday Night Football Prop Bets Week 13: A Helping of Player Props for Each Game on Thanksgiving

• Caleb Williams finished last week’s contest against Minnesota with 340 passing yards

• The Dallas Cowboys defense ranks near dead last in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

• The Green Bay Packers are just two games back from first in the NFC North division standings

Since letting go of their offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, the Chicago Bears offense have started to look like a more competitive unit. Caleb Williams has shown flashes of why he was the betting favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award heading into the year, finishing his last contest against the Minnesota Vikings vaunted defense with 340 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns. Unfortunately for Williams, regression looms large as Detroit’s defense continues to excel at every level of the field.

In the evening, we target the New York Giants ground game as Tyrone Tracy Jr has the opportunity to build on his momentum as he faces off against a Dallas Cowboys defense who ranks near dead last in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. As for Jordan Love, the Green Bay Packers quarterback gets the benefit of playing in a clean pocket for a majority of their contest against Miami as the Dolphins' defensive line struggles to generate pressure at a consistent rate.

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Caleb Williams Under 221.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After a 10-1 start to the season, the Detroit Lions' odds to win the NFC North division title have drastically grown. On Thursday, the Lions have the opportunity to pad their lead at the top of the division standings as they get a favorable matchup against the Chicago Bears who continue to underwhelm on both sides of the ball. Especially on offense as the Bears' pass attack under Williams currently ranks below league average in Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

The Bears' offensive line plays a major role in their struggles as they enter the contest ranked near dead last in both Off Adjusted Sack Rate and Adjusted Line Yards. Against the Lions, Williams will struggle to recapture last week’s success as he will be under relentless pressure against a Lions front seven who excels at generating pressure and smothering opposing passing lanes. Expect the Bears offense to fall back down to reality, hampering Williams ability to generate pass production in the process.

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Jared Goff Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

On the other side of the field, Jared Goff may take a back seat when in scoring territory as Detroit’s best chances of capping off their drives with a touchdown reside on their ground game. Heading into Thursday, the Bears secondary ranks top-10 in Def Pass Success Rate, EPA, DVOA, and Adjusted Sack Rate while their front seven crashes down the board in regard to stopping the run. Expect an uptick in carries for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, lessening the chances of Goff throwing for a touchdown.

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Tyrone Tracy Jr. Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

Speaking of an uptick in carries, the New York Giants emerging running back Tyrone Tracy Jr may be in for a big game as he is set to face off against a Dallas Cowboys front seven who ranks near dead last in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. Even with their backup quarterback Tommy DeVito struggling to stretch out opposing coverage, the Cowboys' inability to slow down opposing running backs in the trenches gives Tracy the opportunity to gain sizable chunks of yards with each carry.

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Jordan Love Over 240.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

Later in the night, Jordan Love will have the opportunity to dazzle as he faces off against a Miami secondary who struggles in coverage. As of writing, the Dolphins' back end ranks well below the league average in Def Pass Success Rate which indicates they struggle to stop opposing offenses from cutting the distance to gain in half on early downs. Against the Packers' deep group of pass catchers, Miami’s coverage will be stretched out thin which gives Love higher-quality passing lanes for him to throw to.

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