Thursday Night Football Prop Bets Week 12: Regression Looms Large Over Jameis Winston

• Lamar Jackson was held to just 207 total passing yards against Pittsburgh’s defense last Sunday

• The Pittsburgh Steelers odds to win the AFC North division title continue to grow

• The Cleveland Browns offense ranks near dead last in Off DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

After holding the Baltimore Ravens NFL MVP contender Lamar Jackson to just 207 total passing yards last Sunday, the Pittsburgh Steelers defense now gets a far more favorable matchup as they face off against the anemic Cleveland Browns offense on Thursday night. Generating offensive production has been a struggle for Cleveland this season as they enter the AFC North divisional matchup ranked near dead last in Off DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

While Cleveland’s offense is poised to struggle, the Steelers have the opportunity to round back into form as they face off against a Browns defense who ranks below league average in Def Pass and Rush DVOA. That bodes well for Russell Wilson as the Steelers' ability to generate rush production will help open up higher-quality passing lanes for him to exploit. When in scoring position, expect Najee Harris to receive an uptick in carries to help combat against the crowded coverage.

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Jameis Winston Under 212.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even in an embarrassing loss to the New Orleans Saints in their last game out, that did not stop Jamies Winston from putting together an impressive performance as he finished the contest throwing for 395 yards and 2 passing touchdowns. His passes were spread around as David Njoku, Elijah Moore, and Jerry Jeudy all hauled in a minimum of six receptions. A much-needed performance for the Browns after they have had to deal with adversity at quarterback since the start of the season.

Unfortunately for Winston, he is poised to regress as he now faces off against a much tougher defense as the Steelers secondary currently ranks above league average in Def Pass Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA. Better yet for the Steelers, their defensive line will have the opportunity to generate pressure at a more consistent rate as the Browns offensive line ranks near dead last in Adjusted Sack Rate. That spells potential disaster for Winston with Defensive Player of the Year contender TJ Watt lined up on the edge.

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Nick Chubb Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Not only will Jameis Winston struggle to generate pass production, but their star running back Nick Chubb will also have a tough time getting the ground game going as the Steelers front seven ranks above league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Even with the Steelers anchoring their linebackers in coverage at one of the heavier rates in the league, the Steelers' front line should have no issue with clogging running lanes in the trenches as the Browns' offensive line ranks 30th in Adjusted Line Yards.

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Russell Wilson Over 176.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers' Russell Wilson is in for a bounce-back performance as he gets the benefit of throwing against a Browns defense who ranks near the bottom of the board in Def Pass DVOA. Better yet for Pittsburgh’s pass attack, the Browns may be forced to stack the box at a heavier rate to help mask their struggles with stopping the run, freeing up space on the outside for the Steelers' pass catchers which also gives Wilson higher quality passing lanes for him to throw to.

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Najee Harris Anytime Touchdown (+120) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

While Wilson may hog the spotlight when in the middle of the field, the Steelers may opt into the idea of giving Najee Harris more carries when in scoring position. This helps limit the variance that comes with throwing against crowded coverage, especially when potentially under pressure as the Browns' defensive line ranks top-5 in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. Factor in the total indicating that this may be a low-scoring contest and the Steelers will need to maximize on their trips in the red zone as there may be only a few of them.

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