Thursday Night Football Prop Bets Week 11: Expect Jalen Hurts to Thrive in Primetime

• The Philadelphia Eagles are the current betting favorite to win the NFC East division title

• Jalen Hurts ranks above league average in Quarterback EPA per Play

• The Washington Commanders' secondary ranks near dead last in Def Pass Success Rate

Since signing NFL Offensive Player of the Year contender Saquon Barkley in the offseason, the Philadelphia Eagles offense have been one of the more versatile units in the league. Not only has Barkley commanded defensive attention due to his elite running ability, but his presence also helps free up space for the Eagles pass catchers. This gives AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith more room to work within their efforts of creating space from opposing coverage, giving Jalen Hurts higher quality passing lanes for him to throw to as well.

In an NFC East divisional matchup against Washington, the Eagles pass catchers should have no issue with exploiting the Commanders gaps in coverage as their secondary enters the contest ranked below league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Their scheme also puts their cornerbacks on islands as the Commanders blitz at one of the higher rates in the league, giving Brown and Smith favorable matchups on the outside as they are capable of beating any single coverage they may receive.

As for where to wager on Thursday night’s slate of player props, Caesars Sportsbook has a wide range of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds when compared to the rest of the mobile apps. If you have not signed up yet with Caesars Sportsbook and are looking to get in on the action, you can get a $1,000 first bet on Caesars should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSN1000.

Jalen Hurts Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook

With the Commanders secondary struggling to defend against the pass as their low marks in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate indicates, Jalen Hurts should have no issue with picking apart their gaps in coverage at a consistent rate. Even after trading for New Orleans Saints Marshon Lattimore to help give their secondary a boost in production, the Commanders; second level of their defense will be stretched out thin as they also have to respect the Eagles' ground game with Saquon Barkley in the backfield.

The Commanders' defensive scheme also puts their secondary in a less than ideal spot as their heavy use of the blitz puts their corners on islands. That spells potential disaster against the Eagles' pass attack as AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith thrive against single coverage while Jalen Hurts is capable of extending plays with his feet to help give his receivers more time to create separation. With the Commanders' offense capable of matching the Eagles' scoring pace, we may also avoid a late run-heavy game script as well.

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Jalen Hurts Under 0.5 Interception (-166) at Caesars Sportsbook

With his pass catchers getting the chance to wreak havoc in the open field, Hurts will benefit from higher-quality passing lanes which helps limit the amount of turnover-worthy plays. The Eagles' offense also gets to call the run at a heavier rate when in scoring position as the Commanders' front seven ranks near dead last in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. By calling the run in the red zone, Hurts will avoid having to throw into heavy coverage to the benefit of his interception prop.

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Jayden Daniels Under 226.5 Passing Yards (-113) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

Since getting selected with the second overall pick in the NFL Draft, Jayden Daniels has drastically elevated Washington’s offense with his dual-threat ability as the Commanders enter Thursday’s contest ranked top-10 in Off DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. His high level of play has also helped him become the heavy favorite for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award, especially while the rest of the field has been severely underwhelmed.

Unfortunately for Daniels, maintaining his high level of play through the air will be a struggle as the Eagles secondary have excelled in coverage. Especially when in the middle of the field as the Eagles' defense ranks top-10 in Def Pass Success Rate and DVOA. With the Eagles anchoring their linebackers in coverage at one of the heavier rates in the league, Daniels and the Commanders offense would be better off abusing the run. With each carry, Daniels loses out on a pass attempt which shades value towards the under on his passing yards prop.

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