Thursday Night Football Picks Week 17: Both Offenses Poised to Struggle on Primetime

• The Seattle Seahawks are one game back from first in the NFC West division standings

• The Los Angeles Rams currently hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks

• Chicago’s secondary ranks above league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

After their loss to the Minnesota Vikings, the Seattle Seahawks odds to make the playoffs have drastically declined as they are one game back from the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West and two games back from the Washington Commanders in the wildcard standings for the last wildcard spot. That means the Seahawks need to win their last two games of the season in order to salvage their hopes of making the playoffs, starting with a primetime matchup against the lowly Chicago Bears on Thursday night.

Unfortunately for Seattle, generating offensive production may be a struggle for their one dimensional offense as their pass attack faces off against a Bears secondary who ranks top-15 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. That spells potential trouble for the Seahawks as the Bears anchor their linebackers at a high rate, giving them more bodies to help cover their deep group of receivers. Expect the Bears to struggle as well while their offensive line consistently collapses against the Seahawks pressure.

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Under 43.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Not only do the Seahawks have to play on short rest, but their offense may struggle to string together drives down the field as the Bears secondary is more than capable of slowing them down. While Chicago as a whole has underwhelmed, their secondary has been their lone consistent source of production as they enter the contest ranked in the top half of the board in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Chicago also anchors their linebackers at a high rate which gives them extra bodies in coverage.

The Bears offense also struggles with generating offensive production as they head into Thursday night ranked well below league average in Off DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Their offensive line plays a major role in their struggles as their inability to hold their ground forces Caleb Williams into making throws while on the run and under pressure. It also lessens the amount of time their pass catchers have to create separation from the Seahawks coverage, lessening the quality of Caleb Williams passing lanes as well.

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Chicago Bears Team Total Under 20.5 (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Not only do the Bears offensive line struggle to hold their ground in pass protection, but they also fail in their efforts of opening up holes for their running backs as they rank near dead last in Off Adjusted Line Yards. Against Seattle, their struggles are poised to continue as the Seahawks vaunted front line excels at generating pressure as their top-10 mark in Pressure Rate indicates. With no clear path for success, expect the Bears offense to continue to underwhelm and stay under their team total.

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Seahawks/Bills ML Parlay (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

If you also want to back the Seahawks in a must win situation with their playoff hopes on the line, then pair them with the Buffalo Bills in a two team moneyline parlay. Even with their offense poised to struggle, the Seahawks will still have a more favorable path to the red zone when compared to the anemic Chicago Bears offense. Seattle’s ground game may also have the opportunity to round back into form as the Bears front seven ranks 31st in Def Rush DVOA, 27th in Def Rush EPA, and 19th in Def Rush Success Rate.

As for the Bills, they look to get back up off the mat after an underwhelming performance with a favorable matchup against the New York Jets. Even with Josh Allen dealing with an injury, the Jets will struggle to stop the Bills offense while James Cook blitzes through their front seven. Stopping the run has been a major issue for the Jets this season as their defense ranks near dead last in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Should Josh Allen sit out, then pair the Seahawks with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers instead.

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