Thursday Night Football Picks Week 16: Expect a Defensive Slugfest on Thursday Night

• The Denver Broncos are one win away from securing a berth in the playoffs

• Bo Nix has the second shortest odds to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award

• The Broncos defense ranks top-10 in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

After entering the year with a projected win total of 5.5, the Denver Broncos have managed to blow past preseason expectations and are now just one win away from securing a spot in the playoffs. Their defense has played a major role in their resurgence as the Broncos head into Thursday night ranked above league average in Def DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, Adjusted Line Yards, and Adjusted Sack Rate. Bo Nix has also managed to play at a high level and has built a case for winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

Should the Broncos want to secure their spot in the playoffs with a win on Thursday night, then their defense must take advantage of the Chargers regressing offense and force them into early outs and stalled out drives. Especially with the Chargers also grading out well on defense as they currently rank top-15 in Def DVOA and EPA. With two productive defenses taking the field, this contest may turn into a defensive slugfest as both offenses will struggle to get into the scoring position.

As for where to wager on Thursday’s AFC West divisional matchup between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers, BetMGM Sportsbook has been the front-runner for the NFL as they offer a wide range of markets for their users to choose from. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM Sportsbook and are looking to get in on the action, you can get up to $1,500 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

Under 42.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

Even with Bo Nix seemingly improving with each outing, the Broncos rookie quarterback is poised to regress as he faces off against a stout Chargers defense. Since Jim Harbaugh became their head coach, the former Michigan Wolverine has emphasized turning around their defense to help turn the Chargers into an instant contender for the playoffs. It’s safe to say Harbaugh has been successful in his efforts of building a productive defense as the Chargers currently rank top-15 in Def DVOA and EPA.

On the other side of the field, the Broncos' defense has continued to excel at every level of the field as they head into Thursday ranked in the top half of the board in Def DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, Adjusted Line Yards, and Adjusted Sack Rate. Their ability to generate pressure at a consistent rate will force Justin Herbert into making plays on the run, lessening the quality of his throws and leaving their offense prone to early outs. Expect a lack of scoring opportunities between the two, shading value towards the under.

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Denver Broncos +3 (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

With the Broncos sitting at the key number of +3, they are also worth a wager to cover the spread as a low scoring contest plays in favor of the underdog. The Broncos defense is also in a better position to succeed as they have the opportunity to push back against a Chargers offensive line who ranks near dead last in both Adjusted Sack Rate and Adjusted Line Yards. With a lack of protection, Herbert will be under relentless pressure while his pass catchers struggle to create separation from the Broncos coverage.

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Broncos/49ers Six Point Teaser (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

Should you want to bypass the Broncos' current number and put them in a six point teaser instead, then that lessens the probability of them getting backdoored as the Chargers would have to win by more than two scores. Getting into the red zone will already be a daunting task for the Chargers offense as previously mentioned as the Broncos defense has been one of the more formidable units in the league with top-10 marks in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

To pair with the Broncos, the San Francisco 49ers have the opportunity to get back up off the mat with a favorable matchup against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins' offense has steadily regressed throughout the year, now having to generate pass production against a 49ers secondary who ranks above league average in Def Pass Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA. Factor in Miami’s defense underwhelming in multiple levels of the field and the Dolphins will be prone to falling quickly behind on the scoreboard.

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