Thursday Night Football Picks Week 14: Packers to Take Advantage of the Lions Injuries

• Detroit’s Malcolm Rodriguez is the latest Lions linebacker to suffer a long-term injury

• The Green Bay Packers are two games back from first in the NFC North division standings

• The Detroit Lions' defense ranks well below the league average in Def Adjusted Sack Rate

Even though the Detroit Lions managed to squeak out the win against the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving, it came with a cost as they were once again ravaged by injuries. Specifically at linebacker after Malcolm Rodriguez went down with a season-ending injury, joining Alex Anzalone and Derrick Barnes on IR. With the second level of their defense thinned out, the Packers' offense should have no issue with picking apart their gaps in coverage across the middle. 

Especially with Jordan Love getting healthier since making his return from injury, showing signs of why he was listed as one of the betting favorites for the MVP award. Securing the win on Thursday is also vital for the Packers as they are currently two games back from first in the NFC North and can neutralize the Lions tiebreaker after losing to them earlier in the year. Factor in the Lions offense still playing as one of the best units in the league and this contest may be a thrilling high-scoring affair.

As for where to wager on Thursday’s matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, BetMGM Sportsbook has been the front-runner for the NFL as they offer a wide range of markets for their users to choose from. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM Sportsbook, you can get up to $1,500 back in the form of bonus bets* should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

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Green Bay Packers Team Total Over 23.5 (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

After having to play each other in the rain earlier in the year, the Green Bay Packers hit the road to battle it out against the Lions in the comfort of a dome. Jordan Love has also looked noticeably healthier over the past few weeks after being hampered by a knee injury in their contest against Detroit. With Love rounding back into form and showing signs of being able to recapture the same success he had in the back half of last season, he has drastically elevated the Packers offense as a whole.

Not only has Love led their offense to above league average marks in Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate, but the Packers quarterback gets the opportunity to shred a thinned out defense who is dealing with injuries to multiple levels of the field. Especially if Carlton Davis and Emmanuel Moseley are unable to give it a go as Kindle Vildor has been a drastic drop off in production. Expect Love to pick apart their gaps in coverage, generating methodical drives down the field and into scoring territory at a consistent rate.

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Green Bay Packers Moneyline (+158) at Caesars Sportsbook 

With Green Bay’s offense in a position to generate trips to the red zone at a high rate, the Packers have a great opportunity to secure a much needed win in order to salvage their hopes of winning the NFC North division title. Especially if their defense continues to excel at limiting opposing scoring opportunities as they enter Thursday night ranked eighth in Def EPA. The shortened field also helps mask their struggles in Def Pass Success Rate, allowing their secondary to stretch out in coverage to cover more ground.

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Packers/Buccaneers Six Point Teaser (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

Should the Packers drop to +3 before you are able to make a wager, then they make for a great six point teaser piece for some added security. Variance may play a role in their contest as they do face off against an offense who is capable of putting up points in a flash as the Lions currently rank top-10 in Off DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, Adjusted Line Yards, and Adjusted Sack Rate. This also negates the possibility of getting backdoored by a single score should it come down to a game-winning drive or overtime.

As for who to pair with them, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers get a favorable matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders' secondary has fallen hard back down to reality after a hot start to the season, entering the weekend ranked near dead last in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. That spells potential disaster against the Bucs' pass attack, especially when the Raiders' own offense ranks equally as poor in Off DVOA and Success Rate.

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