Thursday Night Football Picks Week 13: Lions Defense to Thrive on Thanksgiving

• The Detroit Lions are listed as the new betting favorite to win the Super Bowl

• The New York Giants released their quarterback Daniel Jones and are starting Tommy DeVito

• Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks well below league average in both Adjusted Sack Rate and Adjusted Line Yards

After a 10-1 start to the season, the Detroit Lions are now listed as the new betting favorite to win the Super Bowl. Their metrics back up their success as Detroit currently ranks top-10 on both sides of the ball in DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. In an NFC North divisional matchup against Chicago, the Lions' defense will be on full display as they get the opportunity to shut down a Bears revamped offense who have steadily improved after firing their offensive coordinator Shane Waldron a few weeks ago.

After the opener, we turn our attention towards the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys as both offenses are expected to struggle against two defensive lines who excel at creating pressure. Later in the night, the Miami Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa may find himself in a collapsing pocket at a routine rate against the Green Bay Packers as his offensive line ranks near dead last in Adjusted Sack Rate. That spells potential disaster for Tua, hampering Miami’s chances of staying within the Packers scoring pace.

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Chicago Bears Team Total Under 19.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Heading into the season, the Lions' chances of making the Super Bowl hinged on their defense as their offense was expected to recapture the same success they had in 2023-2024. Eleven games into the year and the Lions' defense have looked like one of the best units in the league as they currently rank top-10 in Def DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, Adjusted Line Yards, and Pressure Rate. Za’Darius Smith has also proven to make an immediate impact as he consistently collapses pockets off the edge.

Against Chicago, the Lions' defense will have the opportunity to string together another dominant performance as the Bears' offensive line ranks near dead last in both Off Adjusted Sack Rate and Adjusted Line Yards. Even with their offense looking more explosive since firing their offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, Offensive Rookie of the Year contender Caleb Williams will struggle to sustain drives down the field against the Lions relentless interior pressure while throwing into low quality passing lanes.

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New York Giants / Dallas Cowboys Under 38 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook 

While the matchup between the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears will give us some exciting moments, the contest between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys may be void of it as both offenses are struggling to play at a competitive level with a pair of backup quarterbacks under center. Both Cooper Rush and Tommy DeVito will continue to struggle with generating offensive production on Thanksgiving as they are set to face off against a pair of defenses who rank above league average in Pressure Rate.

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Green Bay Packers -3 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Turning our attention back to the NFC North, the Green Bay Packers have the opportunity to stay in contention for the division title as a small favorite at home against the Miami Dolphins. The Packers offense has steadily improved since Jordan Love made his return from injury as they enter the contest against the Dolphins ranked above league average in Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Their offensive line has played a major role in their high marks as they rank top-5 in Adjusted Sack Rate.

On Thanksgiving, Jordan Love and the Packers' deep group of pass catchers will look to exploit a Dolphins defense who struggles in coverage as their back end ranks in the bottom half of the board in Def Pass Success Rate. Speaking of defense, the Packers' front line will be in a position to slow down Miami’s explosive offense as they enter the contest with massive advantages in the trenches as the Dolphins' offensive line ranks near dead last in both Adjusted Sack Rate and Adjusted Line Yards.

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