Thursday Night Football Picks Week 12: Pittsburgh's Defense in a Position to Dominate

• The Pittsburgh Steelers are the current betting favorite to win the AFC North division title

• TJ Watt’s odds to win the Defensive Player of the Year award continue to grow

• The Cleveland Browns' offensive line ranks near dead last in both Off Adjusted Sack Rate and Adjusted Line Yards

After last week’s win against the Baltimore Ravens, the Pittsburgh Steelers are now listed as the new betting favorite to win the AFC North division title. They currently have a 1.5-game lead over Baltimore, as well as possess the tiebreaker over them until they meet again in week 16. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, they have a favorable opportunity to grow their lead at the top of the division standings as they face off against the lowly Cleveland Browns on Thursday night.

Against Cleveland, the Steelers' defense will be in a position to dominate as the Browns' offense has struggled mightily with generating offensive production. Heading into Thursday, the Browns' offense ranks near dead last in Off DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Their offensive line’s inability to block at a competitive level plays a major role in their disastrous marks on offense, now having to stand their ground against the Defensive Player of the Year betting favorite TJ Watt and the vaunted Steelers front line.

As for where to wager on Thursday’s AFC North divisional matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, Caesars Sportsbook has been the top choice for the NFL as they offer an abundance of markets for their users to choose from. If you have not signed up yet with Caesars Sportsbook and are looking to get in on the action, you can get up to $1,000 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSN1000.

Cleveland Browns Team Total Under 16.5 (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Since their 29-24 victory over the Baltimore Ravens in week 8, the Cleveland Browns offense have fallen hard back down to reality after two straight underwhelming performances against the Los Angeles Chargers and New Orleans Saints. Even with Jameis Winston excelling at moving the ball down the field by throwing for 395 yards and 2 passing touchdowns, the Browns were unable to capitalize on their scoring opportunities and were held to just 14 total points against the injury-riddled Saints' defense. 

Heading into Thursday, the Browns' anemic offense will struggle to get into scoring position as they face off against one of the best defenses in the league. As of writing, the Steelers' defense ranks above league average across the board in Def DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. Better yet for the Steelers, their front line has the opportunity to round back into form in terms of Adjusted Sack Rate as they face off against a Browns offensive line who ranks near dead last in True Pass Protection Grade.

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Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Speaking of rounding back into form, the Steelers' offense should generate more offensive production against the Browns as their ground game will open up higher-quality passing lanes by commanding defensive attention toward the middle of the field. That was a missing factor in last week’s contest against the Ravens, now giving their running back duo Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren the chance to exploit a Browns front seven who ranks below league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

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Steelers/Lions Moneyline Parlay (-109) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

For some added security, you can tie the Steelers into a two team moneyline parlay to help avoid the possibility of getting hooked by the key number of -3. While their offense is expected to round back into form, a heavier dose of the run will also limit their number of offensive possessions due to a running clock. That simultaneously also lessens their own number of scoring opportunities, increasing the variance that comes when trying to cover the spread.

To pair along with the Steelers, the Detroit Lions make for an intriguing partner as they hit the road to battle it out against the Indianapolis Colts. Even with Anthony Richardson back under center, the Lions' revamped defense should have no issue with limiting his dual-threat ability as their front seven excels at limiting opposing rush production. Heading into Sunday, the Lions' defense ranks top-10 in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. With Richardson expected to struggle, expect the Lions to string together another dominant performance and secure a sizable win on the road.

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