In Week 17, Tennessee Titans HC Mike Vrabel sat RB Derrick Henry, now rested
The .500 Jacksonville Jaguars are on a 4-game winning streak, atop the AFC South
Watch Titans vs Jaguars live on Saturday, January 7, 2023, at 8:15 PM ET on ESPN
POINT SPREAD: Tennessee Titans +6.5 (-105) at FanDuel
POINTS TOTAL: Over 40 (-109) at BetRivers
SPECIAL: 1st Team TD - Jacksonville Jaguars (-210) at Caesars
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This is the exciting game two of an NFL Week 18 Saturday doubleheader as the 7-9 Tennessee Titans take on the 8-8 Jacksonville Jaguars to see who rules the AFC South and earns a trip to the postseason while the loser gets in line for one of the AFC’s three Wildcard bids, a game that should featured a well-rested Titans RB Derrick Henry who took Week 17 off.
According to the sportsbooks, the Titans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games, a dip in production due in big part to the number of injuries this team has endured this season, so far with 23 players on IR and nine players listed as questionable to play in this one including RB Henry (hip) who will most likely suit up but will still be affected by his sore midsection.
The Jaguars are on a four-game winning streak, and they are healthy and seem ready to make a postseason run, more productive on both sides of the ball than the Titans thanks in part to the development of QB Trevor Lawrence who has taken to veteran HC Doug Pederson’s development and proven to be the number one overall draft pick he was chosen to become.
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The oddsmakers predict these two teams will combine for 40 total points, which seems low for this time of the season, especially when you consider what their offenses typically produce each week, the Titans generating an average of 17.6 points per game and the Jaguars' offense posting 24 points each week, that total of 42 points a bit more than what the sportsbooks allow so we are taking the over.
These defenses also give us a nudge towards the over since Tennessee’s allows opponents to score 21.2 points per week and the Jags allow teams to score 20.9, that 42.1 total also over what this bet allows, another reason to go that direction.
Both of these defenses are ranked in the bottom third of the league – Titans 25th, Jags 23rd – so expect them to get tired by the end of the game which could mean more scoring to consider for this wager, yet another reason to consider the over.
But there is also a decent case for taking the under since, according to the sportsbooks, eight of the Titans' last nine games against AFC opponents have gone under the total points line, a tendency that could be broken with a well-rested and healthy RB Derrick Henry.
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Here is a Week 18 Special from Caesars Sportsbook that has the bettor guessing which team, if any, will score the first touchdown of the game, with the Jacksonville Jaguars favored in this case.
A $210 bet will pay out $100 plus the original wager if the Jags get into the end zone first, whereas a $100 bet on the Titans to do that would pay out $140 plus the wager to the winners and a $100 bet that neither team scores a touchdown all game will pay winners $3,500 plus the bet.
The oddsmakers tell us that the Titans have scored first in each of their last six games against the Jaguars, so it might make sense for them to do that in Week 18 when everything is on the line, but we like the idea of Jags QB Lawrence and his major playmakers – WRs Zay Jones, Marvin Jones, and Christian Kirk and TE Evan Ingram – establishing an early and permanent lead.
The finality of this game for these two teams gives it even more attention than it would normally get so the increased amount of action could change the odds as the game gets closer so be sure to check back often and shop around for the best odds to make sure you make the wisest wager you can.
What: Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Where: TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, FL
When: Saturday, January 7, 2023, at 8:15 PM ET
How: ESPN, ABC, ESPN+
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