Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has been inaccurate this season, completing just 48.5% of his passes.
Texans running back Joe Mixon had 30 carries for 159 yards and one touchdown in Week 1 against the Colts.
It’s unclear if Colts running back Jonathan Taylor will suit up in this game.
The 5-2 Houston Texans are hosting the 4-3 Indianapolis Colts in a rematch of Week 1, in which the Texans beat the Colts 29-27 in Indianapolis.
Below are the odds for this matchup, my pick, predictions, and best player props.
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. Create an account at FanDuel and make an initial wager of at least to claim $300 in bonus bets.
FanDuel Moneyline | FanDuel Point Spread | FanDuel Totals |
---|---|---|
Colts: +215 | Colts: +5.5 (-104) | Over 46.5: -105 |
Texans: -260 | Texans: -5.5 (-118) | Under 46.5: -115 |
The Texans are averaging one interception per game, and this sets up nicely against the most inaccurate starting quarterback in the league, Colts signal-caller Anthony Richardson.
Richardson is a dynamic runner, but in games he’s started and finished, he’s completed 50% or less of his passes. Across the entire season, he’s completing just 48.5% of his passes for three touchdowns and six interceptions.
His inaccuracy is egregious right now, and that won’t hold up against a Texans team that held Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen to a 30% completion rate earlier this season.
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The game really comes down to how Richardson will play.
In Week 1, at home, Richardson completed nine of 19 passes for 212 yards, two touchdown passes and one interception. He also ran for 56 yards and a score.
However, since then, he has just one touchdown pass, zero rushing touchdowns, and five interceptions.
He returned in Week 7 after missing time due to injury, and against Miami, he completed 10 of 24 passes for 129 yards, no touchdown, no picks, and rushed for 56 yards.
The Texans defense allows 190 passing yards, 2.14 touchdowns, and one interception per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Richardson has been decent on deep balls, which he showed in Week 1 against the Texans, so we could see some of that, but on throws 0-9 yards downfield, he completes just 59.5% of those, and on throws 10-19 yards, he completes just 44.4%.
As for the Colts rushing attack, it’s unclear whether Jonathan Taylor will suit up. If not, a collection of Tyler Goodson and Trey Sermon will face a Texans defense that’s allowed just three rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this season.
Looking at the Colts defense, they allow over 125 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs at 4.42 yards per carry.
Against quarterbacks, they allow nearly 237 passing yards and 1.43 passing touchdowns. They’ve allowed at least one in every game, and that included games against Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams in his third start, the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, the destitute Tennessee Titans, and Miami last week on their third-string quarterback.
In Week 1, Stroud threw for 234 yards and two touchdowns, and running back Joe Mixon ran 30 times for 159 yards and a score.
Now, this game is in Houston, and I don’t think there’s any way the Texans lose.
They’ll win by 10, especially if Taylor is out.
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As mentioned, Richardson’s accuracy is a massive problem, but the rushing ability is still there.
He scored a touchdown against the Texans in Week 1, and if Taylor is out again, the Colts may turn more toward his rushing ability against a relatively stiff pass defense.
Richardson is coming off a game with 14 carries. Before that, he averaged six per game in games he's finished.
Alternatively, you could opt for him to be the first scorer, as I’m not sure how much success he’ll have later in the game as the Texans take the lead.
The Colts best shot at moving this offense is the rushing ability from Richardson and moving the chains with whatever stable of backs they go with here.
Look for Richardson’s passing limitations to lead to rushing opportunities.
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Richardson has 783 passing yards this season and is averaging 156.6 per game.
If you take out the game against Pittsburgh that he didn’t finish, it’s right at 178, or 0.5 yards more than this line.
To start the year, he threw for 212 against the Texans, but a lot of that came on one deep pass.
In Week 2, he threw for 204 yards.
Since then, he’s thrown for 167 or less in three appearances, including the game against the Steelers, which he left early.
As mentioned, Richardson is completing just 48.5% of his passes. He’s averaging 16 yards per completion, which is high, but he’s completed 10 passes or less in three of four games he’s started and finished this season.
This is a divisional matchup against a familiar opponent, but his inaccuracy right now is too bad to rely on.
Sure, we could see a deep ball similar to Week 1, but I just don’t have faith in anything besides that right now.
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In four games this season, Mixon has scored four times. He left Week 2 early against the Bears and didn’t score, but in all other games he finished, he’s scored at least once.
That includes Week 1 against the Colts, where he rushed 30 times for 159 yards and one touchdown.
Here, I don’t expect him to get 30 carries again, but he’s coming off a performance with 25 carries for 115 yards and two scores.
He’s a vital piece of the Texans offense, and he’s a proven commodity against a defense that allows more than 125 rushing yards and 4.42 yards per carry.
They’ve allowed just four rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this season, and three of those have come over the last three weeks.
Mixon will score here.
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When: Sunday, Oct. 27 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas
Where to Watch: CBS
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Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is questionable.
Colts linebacker E.J. Speed is questionable.
Colts cornerback Chris Lammons is questionable.
Colts defensive tackle DeForest Bucker is questionable with an ankle injury as he makes his way back from injured reserve.
Colts linebacker Jaylon Carlies is questionable with an ankle injury.
Texans wide receiver Robert Woods is questionable.
Texans safety Jimmie Ward is questionable.
Texans linebacker Henry To’oTo’o is questionable.
Texans wide receiver Steven Sims is questionable.
Texans cornerback Kamar Lassiter is questionable.
Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is questionable.
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