The Chiefs beat the Texans 27-19 in Arrowhead a month ago
Kansas City is aiming to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls
The Texans lost on the road in the divisional playoffs last year
The Houston Texans (10-7) will battle the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) to kick off the divisional round of the NFL playoffs on Saturday.
Here, we will jump into all pertinent details of the matchup, standout player props, and our favorite Texans vs. Chiefs betting picks.
Odds for the Texans vs. Chiefs matchup are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. New users on FanDuel Sportsbook can Get $300 in Bonus Bets If $5 Wager Wins
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Houston Texans | +8.5 (-112) | +350 | Over 41.5 (-110) |
Kansas City Chiefs | -8.5 (-108) | -450 | Under 41.5 (-110) |
The Texans made the divisional round last year in C.J. Stroud’s rookie season, only to get whooped by the Baltimore Ravens, 34-10. They head back to the familiar stage on the back of a 32-12 win over Jim Harbaugh’s Los Angeles Chargers and with a much-improved defense that allowed the lowest completion percentage, second-fewest yards per attempt, and 11th-fewest points per game.
Stroud failed to hit the same heights he did as a rookie, but he managed 282 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in the Wild Card win against LA. He and his teammates were defeated by the Chiefs 27-19 on Dec. 21, during which Stroud went 23/39 for 244 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, while the Chiefs did not turn the ball over.
Kansas City won more one-score games than anyone and didn’t score more than 30 points all season, yet they went 15-1 with their starters on the field and beat teams such as the Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Texans. They allowed the fourth-fewest points per game and were in the top 10 in offensive EPA per play and success rate.
Patrick Mahomes finished the regular season by throwing 18 touchdowns and two interceptions over his last nine games, putting to bed a slow start to the campaign. He and his teammates also got two weeks of rest between Week 18 and the Wild Card bye, and they’re intimately familiar with how to prepare for playoff games after taking time off.
Houston was able to frustrate Justin Herbert and force him into four interceptions, which was more than he threw all year. Their best asset is their pass defense, so they’ll have to find ways to frustrate Mahomes to have a shot at winning.
Stroud ultimately did not have a great season, and the Chiefs just got a look at the Texans a month ago. We’d lay the points with the back-to-back champs knowing they will want to make a statement to kick off their bid for a third straight Super Bowl championship.
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The Texans are going to put the ball in the hands of their sophomore star without much hesitation. He threw 33 passes last week in a game in which the Texans had a comfortable lead, and also threw 39 passes in his matchup with the Chiefs less than a month ago.
The playoffs are not the time to hold back, and we don’t believe Stroud will. Plus, he’ll have to try to keep pace with the playoff Chiefs, who are as experienced as anyone.
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Hopkins only scored at least one touchdown in three of 10 games since he was traded to the Chiefs in the middle of the season—but considering he’s going to take on the team that drafted him and that helped him make his name, and the last time he was in the playoffs was in the Chiefs-Texans fixture, there are underlying factors that make him an attractive betting option.
Mahomes played very well to finish the year and had 260 yards and a touchdown in his last game against Houston. Hopkins needs a strong playoff run to add to his potential Hall of Fame resume, so he should have extra motivation to find the end zone.
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Hunt, 29, has been on several trips to the playoffs with the Chiefs and knows exactly what to expect in these games. He also went over in two of his last three games and still got about 10 carries per game even after Isiah Pacheco rejoined the lineup.
The Chiefs don’t want this game to turn into a shootout, so they’re likely to run the ball and control the clock. Houston was 10th in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.3), so eight of those at that average should be enough for Hunt to get over his line.
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When: Sat., Jan. 18 @ 3:30/4:30 p.m. CT/ET
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Where to Watch: ESPN/ABC
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Texans
Robert Woods (WR) - Questionable (hip)
Shaq Mason (G) - Doubtful (knee)
Dalton Schultz (TE) - Questionable (shoulder)
Azeez Al-Shaair (LB) - Questionable (knee)
Joe Mixon (RB) - Questionable (ankle)
Stefon Diggs (WR) - Out (knee)
Tank Dell (WR) - Out (knee)
Jimmie Ward (S) - Out (foot)
Chiefs
Mecole Hardman (WR) - Questionable (knee)
Jalen Watson (CB) - Questionable (lower leg)
Rashee Rice (WR) - Out (knee
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