POINT SPREAD: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 (-115) on FanDuel Sportsbook
The 49ers have arguably had their best season since they were defeated in the Super Bowl in 2020. The Chiefs won that game 31-20, and we’re getting a rematch on Sunday.
San Francisco is better positioned compared to 2020. Yet, it’s always hard to go against Patrick Mahomes when he gets points as an underdog.
Last season, the 49ers traded for former Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey had been injured for a few seasons but has turned it on with the 49ers.
McCaffrey has put this team on his back multiple times to win close games, and he must be spectacular to win on Sunday.
Kansas City’s rushing defense was stout last week against the Ravens. If they can figure it out against the best rushing team in the AFC, they should find a way against San Francisco.
Brock Purdy will also be a challenge for the Kansas City defense. We expect the Chiefs to focus on the run game, which will open up Purdy for shots down the field.
When the Chiefs have the ball, they’ll face one of the best defenses in the league. Although, this is where Mahomes shines.
Mahomes and the Chiefs will face the fifth-best rushing defense in the NFL. This will make Mahomes one-dimensional, but we still like him to overcome the odds.
In the big game, Mahomes is a different beast. His struggles early in the season won’t impact this game at all. With two of the best defenses in football set to square off, the edge has to go toward the seasoned veteran quarterback and the defending champions.
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POINTS TOTAL: Under 47.5 (-110) on DraftKings Sportsbook
While every Super Bowl is different, trends are critical for betting. Since 2009, only one total has been lower than this year's 47.5. This mark came in the 2015 game between the Broncos and the Panthers, which went way below the 43.5-point line.
The under has hit in four of the past five Super Bowls. While this line is low compared to the last handful of Super Bowls, these two teams can slow the other down.
The 49ers have won with defense throughout the year. They allowed 17.5 points per game on average, ranking third in the NFL.
San Francisco also has a top-five run defense, which makes opponents throw the ball. The 49ers have struggled in the secondary, so this is one route for the game to surpass 47.5 points.
San Francisco has the 13th-ranked pass defense in the league. They also tend to give up big plays on blown coverages. However, the Chiefs have struggled to find the big play, as they’ve relied on long sustained drives.
The Chiefs also have an excellent all-around defense to keep this game under the total. Kansas City is second in the league regarding points against and has the sixth-best pass defense in the NFL.
The Chiefs have shown weekly that they can shut any offense down. They held the Ravens to just ten offensive points in the conference championship.
We expect the Super Bowl to be a physical game where points are at a premium.
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BONUS PROP: Christian McCaffrey Longest Carry Over 18.5 Yards (-118) on FanDuel Sportsbook
The 49ers struck gold a little over a season ago when they acquired running back Christian McCaffrey. A running back like McCaffrey was the one thing that the 49ers had been missing.
San Francisco needed help finding a consistent back before his arrival. In the 2023 regular season, McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards with 1,459. He also finished second in the league in attempts and fourth in the league in touchdowns with 14.
The Chiefs have a solid run defense, but there doesn’t seem to be a team that can slow him down. If the Chiefs can’t find a way to stop the long progressive runs, it will be a long day for Kansas City fans.
The 49ers are stacked to the brim with talent. This team always seems one step short of being world champions. San Francisco uses McCaffrey constantly in just about every package the offense runs.
In his last six games, McCaffrey has hit over 18.5 for his longest rush five times. He’s undoubtedly the best running back and will make plays on Sunday.
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For more details and insights, check out our Ride the Line podcast where Grant Mitchell and I share the analysis and predictions for Super Bowl LVIII.
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