Super Bowl Picks Against the Spread: Eagles vs. Chiefs for the Three-Peat

• The Chiefs won the last two Super Bowls, the most recent in overtime

• Saquon Barkley has 442 yards and five touchdowns in the postseason

• Patrick Mahomes only has seven touchdowns and five interceptions in four Super Bowl appearances

The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will square off in Super Bowl LIX just like they did two years ago when the Chiefs took Super Bowl LVII, 38-35.

The Chiefs made their way to their fifth Super Bowl in seven years with Patrick Mahomes under center by defeating the Buffalo Bills 32-29. Patrick Mahomes led the effort with 245 yards and a touchdown, while the defense got stops when it needed to.

The Eagles scored a conference championship-record 55 points en route to their 55-23 win over the Washington Commanders. Their only loss since Week 4 came to Washington in Week 16, and they have all of the confidence in the world following their last performance.

Here, we will jump into our best bet against the spread for the Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl rematch.

Super Bowl LIX Odds

Chiefs vs. Eagles - Feb. 9, 6:30 PM ET

Chiefs Prediction

The Chiefs are the team that the rest of the NFL wants to be. They made the AFC Championship Game in an unprecedented seven straight seasons, have been to five of the last seven Super Bowls, and are 60 minutes of football away from becoming the first team in league history to win three straight Lombardi Trophies.

Patrick Mahomes is the head of the snake in KC. Although this is the worst statistical season of his NFL career, he just posted a QBR of 87.1 in the win over the Bills and produced 23 total touchdowns and only two interceptions over his last 11 games.

Deandre Hopkins has fallen out of favor despite initial expectations, but rookie wideout and speedster Xavier Worthy already set a Chiefs franchise record for total touchdowns by a first-year player. Kareem Hunt has also been a valuable addition to the backfield and formed a strong partnership with Isiah Pacheco, both of whom run downhill with physicality and without fear.

As great as the Chiefs are, their defense could be one of the most underrated units in the league. Their advanced metrics (13th in success rate, 15th in EPA per play) don’t amaze, but they allowed the fourth-fewest points per game and always seem to get stops in the biggest spots.

Credit for that goes to Steve Spagnuolo, who seems to bring pressure at the perfect moments and from unexpected angles to great effect, whether that be on fourth down against Josh Allen in the Chiefs’ last game or on third down near the goal line in overtime of the last Super Bowl against the San Francisco 49ers.

To beat the Chiefs, a team needs to outduel Mahomes not just in the overall game, but in the biggest moments. That’s where he’s simply the best player the league has ever seen.

Mahomes is 18-14 in the regular season and playoffs when trailing by 10 or more points, by far the best mark in league history. He’s also 5-3 in the playoffs when trailing in the fourth quarter or overtime, and he’s 11-3 straight up as an underdog.

Looking back at Super Bowl LVII, Mahomes went 21/27 for 183 yards and three touchdowns. The Chiefs found a way to win despite being worse on third down and fourth down, gaining fewer yards, running fewer plays, and having the ball for more than 10 minutes less than the Eagles did.

Of course, that was a very different Eagles team than the one that is in place—and that’s where the story turns.

Eagles Prediction

Philly was the only team in the league that ran the ball more than it threw it, and for good reason. Saquon Barkley became the ninth player in NFL history to run for at least 2,000 yards during the regular season, and he averaged 147.3 yards and scored five touchdowns in three playoff games. 

QB Jalen Hurts also has seven total touchdowns in the playoffs and has not thrown an interception since a Week 10 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys. Nearly every team that won the turnover battle won its playoff matchup thus far, and mistakes are amplified for any team that faces the Chiefs.

Don’t believe us? Take the last time that Hurts met the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Despite racking up 374 yards and four total touchdowns, his fumble-six arguably proved to be the difference in the game.

The Eagles’ defense ranks second in both EPA per play and success rate across the regular and postseason. They allowed a league-best 17.9 points per game and 4.8 yards per play and ranked third in takeaways per game, only just behind the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers.

The two weeks of rest between games will go a long way for the Birds, who are dealing with injuries to players like Hurts, Cam Jurgens, and Landon Dickerson.

Interestingly, there have been four Super Bowl rematches between head coaches—the coach who won the first meeting won all four sequels. 

The Chiefs are going to need to be able to run the ball and get their short passing game going to keep the Philly defense from comfortably keeping everything in front of it. Meanwhile, the Eagles are going to need to attack down the field with their excellent wide receivers if the Chiefs sell out to stop the run.

Jalen Hurts also needs to have another excellent game like he did in the last Super Bowl, but he can’t fall into the trap of trying to out-Mahomes Mahomes himself.

There are so many reasons to favor the Eagles here. All good things come to an end, and the Chiefs have pushed their luck just about as far as they can with all of their one-score games… but until they lose, there’s simply no reason to favor any team over them.

We like the Chiefs to win this game and to complete the three-peat. Our best advice is to take them on the moneyline to reduce the risk, but we’d bet the Chiefs spread too.

• Chiefs vs. Eagles pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-115) at BetMGM

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