Steelers vs. Bills NFL Wild Card Player Props
Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer (+105)
Allen scored at least one rushing touchdown in 12 of his last 15 games and was arguably a better running back than quarterback over the past couple of months.
Ever since Joe Brady took over as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator, he leaned heavily into the run. Allen is part of that picture just as much as James Cook or anyone else, and that bodes well for his touchdown chances.
The wintery conditions mean that the teams will be throwing haymakers in the trenches. Allen never hesitates to lay his body on the line and seems like a strong bet to pound his way into the end zone on a short field.
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Josh Allen over 39.5 rushing yards (-114)
Allen went over this line in each of his last two games, going for 44 and 67 rushing yards. He also set season-highs in carries in both games and should be just as busy since the weather likely will limit his ability to throw the ball.
The Steelers’ defense is down T.J. Watt, which greatly reduces their punch on the front line. That, combined with everything else we already mentioned before, is reason enough to trust Allen to go over on his rushing total.
Mason Rudolph under 147.5 passing yards (-114)
Rudolph went over this line in all three starts this season but did only manage to get to 152 yards against the Ravens’ defense last week despite completing 90% of his passes.
Again, because of the weather, we don’t expect Mike Tomlin to allow his usual third-string QB to air the ball out more than necessary in his first-ever playoff start. Buffalo’s defense is also strong against the pass (seventh-fewest yards allowed per game) and isn’t the optimal matchup for Rudolph.
The Steelers have found more success running the ball lately, and we expect them to lean into that.
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Jaylen Warren over 3.5 receptions (+124)
Despite what we said above, Warren should be active in the passing game. Teams often use running backs on screens, wheels, and routes of that nature as extensions of the running game, so they don’t just pound the line, and we expect the Steelers to employ that here.
Buffalo knows Pittsburgh isn’t going to take many downfield shots, which means the Steelers need to find creative ways to get the ball outside of the numbers.
Warren went over this line in five straight games, which is all the more reason to have confidence in him here. We wouldn’t be as confident in his receiving yardage, but the raw reception total is worth the risk.
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How to Watch Steelers vs. Bills
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Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
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When: Sunday, January 14, 1:00 p.m. ET
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TV: CBS
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