Sunday Night Football Week 4 Picks: Will Allen Continue His MVP Trajectory?

• The Bills won the last meeting between the two 23-20 in October 2022

• Josh Allen recently leaped to the top of MVP odds

• Buffalo is 2-1 against the spread while Baltimore is 1-2

The Baltimore Ravens will host MVP favorite Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills for an NFL Week 4 edition of Sunday Night Football.

The Bills are 3-0 and just beat the Jaguars 47-10 in the primetime stage of Monday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Ravens bludgeoned their way to their first win of the season by beating the Dallas Cowboys 28-25 on Sunday afternoon. 

These two teams are second and third in odds to win the AFC Championship, behind only the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Although it’s still the first month of the season, Sunday’s clash will set the stage for what is to come and give both teams the opportunity to look themselves in the mirror.

Here are our best Ravens vs. Bills bets for SNF Week 4.

All odds below come from FanDuel Sportsbook. FanDuel customers can get $200 in bonus bets with a $5 bet on the Ravens vs. Bills showdown.

Bills ML (+116) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Conventional wisdom says to err on the side of caution when analyzing road teams on a short week of rest. But conventional wisdom also doesn’t have the clear-cut best player in the league during the first three weeks of playing quarterback.

Josh Allen scored nine total touchdowns and did not turn the ball over once as his team stormed to a league-best +21.3-point average scoring differential with a defense that gave up the second-fewest yards per play. He’s played clean football ever since offensive coordinator Joe Brady took over in the middle of last year, and his team’s ability to run the ball and defend makes them arguably the best they’ve been in decades,

Lamar and the Ravens shockingly lost to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2 and tried their best to throw a 28-6 fourth-quarter lead last week. They are just 25th in defensive EPA per play, a far cry from their usual standard, and will struggle to find answers for the MVP frontrunner.

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Over 46.5 Points (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Lamar Jackson had an “over my dead body” type of game on opening night against the Chiefs, and although the Ravens still lost, we expect a similar type of performance in this game if his team can’t get going early.

Derrick Henry ran for 151 yards and two touchdowns against Dallas last week. Buffalo has only been about league-average against the run thus far, and Baltimore’s ability to run with Henry and Jackson or to let their two-time MVP run the show should lead to guaranteed points.

Both teams also need this game for different reasons. For Baltimore, a 1-3 start will make it difficult to win the division, and for Buffalo, they need to beat a top contender to prove that they did not fall off the cliff many believed they would. For those reasons, we see this being a fiery, high-scoring affair.

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Derrick Henry Under 67.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Buffalo is only 16th in rushing yards allowed per game and 22nd in rushing yards allowed per attempt. Henry ran for 151 yards in Week 3. So why are we looking at his under?

Part of the Bills allowing their opponents to run the ball was by choice, as they controlled each of their last two games from the onset and were able to play conservative defense. They will bring more bodies down into the box knowing the opponent they’re up against, especially with Mark Andrews no longer occupying an important role on the offense, and Zay Flowers, the team’s leading receiver, averaging less than 50 yards per game.

Henry might be the team’s leading rusher, but it’s Jackson who averaged a team-high 7.3 yards per carry and can break the game open. Expect him to call his own number more in a primetime game and for Henry to stay under.

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Josh Allen Over 236.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

As we mentioned, this Ravens defense is not the same one that was historically great last year. They lost Patrick Queen, Geno Stone, and defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald, among others, and they’re now 24th in both points allowed per game and yards allowed per play.

Taking it a step further, the Ravens are 27th in defensive EPA per dropback pass and gave up 291.7 passing yards per game—36 more than the second-worst mark (Washington Commanders - 255.7). 

Allen only went over this line one time, but that was in his most recent outing. Baltimore also allowed the fewest yards per run and could allow Buffalo to throw the ball more than it has, which should lead to Allen hitting the over.

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