Sunday Night Football Week 3 Picks: Falcons Back in Primetime for the Second Straight Week

• The Falcons beat the Eagles in primetime on Monday via a fourth-quarter comeback

• The Chiefs are down Isaiah Pacheco and haven’t gotten much from Travis Kelce

• The under is 2-0 on SNF and hit in 60.1% of primetime games over the last five years

The Atlanta Falcons are back in primetime for the second straight week as they prepare to host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.

Kirk Cousins led the Falcons on a fourth-quarter comeback on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles that culminated in a seven-yard touchdown pass to Drake London. Meanwhile, the Chiefs knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals thanks to a last-gasp field goal despite Patrick Mahomes playing one of the worst games of his career.

There are injury concerns on both sides as Cousins doesn’t appear to be at full strength and the Chiefs just lost Isaiah Pacheco to a fractured fibula.

Here, we will analyze the odds and share our favorite Falcons vs. Chiefs betting picks for SNF.

All odds below come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet on the Falcons vs. Chiefs showdown at FanDuel and claim $200 in bonus bets today.

Falcons +3.5 (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook

There’s been a bit of an overreaction to the Falcons’ comeback on Monday Night Football last week. Their passing game was not in rhythm for most of the night, and the Eagles have a poor defense. However, Bijan Robinson had another great outing, and the secondary did a nice job holding Jalen Hurts to 183 yards and an interception.

The real reason we’re eyeing the Falcons’ spread is because of the Chiefs’ instability. Pacheco is out with an injury, meaning that they only have one registered running back, undrafted rookie Carson Steele, who has received a carry this season. “Hollywood” Brown is also going to be out for the year with an injury, and Travis Kelce has just four receptions for 39 yards in two games.

Kansas City’s defense and the Mahomes-Andy Reid duo will keep them in the game—it will probably even win it for them. But their uninspiring showing against the Bengals combined with the litany of issues and the Falcons having momentum is enough to take them before the line dips under three points.

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Under 46.5 Points (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

We mentioned that neither offense looked great last week. Combine that with both defenses seeming to be ahead of the offenses, and that’s a recipe for a low-scoring game.

Betting the under has been extremely profitable in recent years. The side is a whopping 151-101-4 (60.1 percent) in primetime over the last five years, which would result in a $3,718.32 profit for anyone who bet $100 on the under in each of these games.  

The under is also 2-0 on Sunday Night Football, with the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions (46 total points) cashing a line of 53.5 and the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans (32 total points) easily paying off a 45.5-point line. 

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Bijan Robinson Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Falcons’ second-year back ran for 68 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1 and 97 against the Eagles last Monday. He averaged a strong 5.2 yards per carry and is emerging in the conversation for the best back in the league, especially in the void left by the injured Christian McCaffrey.

The Chiefs rank 17th in rushing yards allowed per game (129.5) and 21st in rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.8). They also scored the fourth-worst in EPA allowed per running play, even below the New York Giants and the Carolina Panthers.

This game figures to be a battle for time of possession, which should lend itself to Robinson running the ball more times than not. The more opportunities the better for a player that is off to an impressive start thus far.

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Carson Steele Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Chiefs already showed their hand with Steele, and a former Ball State and UCLA running back. They usually deploy him in short-yardage situations on third or fourth down to help move the chains.

Without Pacheco, one of the fiercest runners in the league, available, Steele should get even more of these types of looks. That includes opportunities around the goal line that Pacheco was terrific at converting behind KC’s strong offense line.

We still don’t project a very large workload for Steele, but he should be on the field once KC enters the red zone. That’s enough to warrant the risk with these and considering the ingenuity Reid regularly displays in short fields.

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