The Bucs beat the Commanders 37-20 in Week 1
Bucky Irving is averaging 5.4 YPC this season
Jayden Daniels threw 2+ TDs in five straight games heading into Week 18
The NFL playoffs are about to kick things off with an incredible slate of Wild Card Round games. The Sunday Night Football matchup may be the best of the weekend as the Washington Commanders visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams want to prove themselves on the league’s biggest stage, but only one will walk away with a victory.
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We expect this game to get exciting quickly, but the Commanders lack the talent on either side of the ball to keep it close. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders’ offense was one of the best in the league this season, but they ranked behind the Bucs in most offensive categories.
Neither of the defenses we will see on Sunday night will be particularly good, Tampa’s got hot to close out the season. They averaged 17 points allowed per game over their final seven, leading to a record of 6-1. All of those wins came by at least three points.
Washington’s defense has been better than many expected, thanks to their third-ranked pass defense. However, they are allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (137.5). The Bucs will expose that weakness, with their backfield averaging the fourth-most rushing yards per game (149.2).
Tampa’s defense has issues against the pass, but their run defense will help stifle Washington’s impressive run game. As good as Daniels has been, he is a rookie who will be playing in the postseason for the first time. There will be a learning curve, which will allow the Bucs to walk away with a win this weekend.
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Washington pulled Jayden Daniels early from their Week 18 game, but the rookie was incredible over the season's final few weeks. He threw for at least two touchdowns in five straight games as he appears to be playing his best football of the season.
We expect Daniels to take some time to find his groove in his first playoff game. However, Tampa’s offense will force Daniels to work through the air a lot, giving him plenty of chances to cover this total.
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Washington’s defense has been better than many expected, but they are awful against the run. They allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season, which was the fifth-highest mark in the NFL.
Bucky Irving has been one of the breakout stars of the 2024 season. The back took over the starting role and finished the season averaging 5.4 YPC. The rookie faced this Commanders team in his first NFL game. Irving dominated despite limited touches, finishing with 62 yards on nine carries (6.9 YPC). Expect those numbers to spike this time around, with the running back likely to see twice as many carries.
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