SNF Same Game Parlay NFL Week 3: Steelers vs Raiders

• Steelers ML (+120)
• Jimmy Garoppolo Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)
• Raiders Under 22.5 Points (-110)
• Najee Harris Over 51.5 (-105)

Combined Odds +1376 via DraftKings Sportsbook

While this week’s Sunday Night Football matchup may not be the most glamorous, we are expecting to see an exciting matchup between these two evenly matched teams. On one side, we have a Steelers team desperate for their first win and a Raiders team looking to shake off a blowout loss in Buffalo.

If you are looking to wager on Sunday’s prime-time matchup, we have you covered. We will share why we love each leg of our favorite same-game parlay and provide you with the odds and insights needed to end the weekend on a winning note.

Steelers ML (+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Steelers' offense is far better than they have shown. While they looked overwhelmed in the first two weeks, that came against two of the best defenses in the league: the Niners and Browns. We expect him to show significant improvements through the air, but we also think he will find success running the ball against a Raiders defense that has surrendered the twenty-seventh most rushing yards through the first two weeks.

We are not impressed with the Las Vegas defense in 2023. They have not generated a turnover through their first two games, which is a big red flag. Vegas faced a first-year starter in Sam Howell and Josh Allen struggling with accuracy but failed to intercept both. That soft secondary will allow Pickett to gain some confidence and lead to a breakout for the Pittsburgh offense.

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Jimmy Garoppolo Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)

Jimmy Garoppolo is going to have a long and painful Sunday Night. The Raiders offensive line has protected the veteran signal-caller well, but he looked overwhelmed against the Buffalo defense last week. He finished the game with 185 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Running back Josh Jacobs was even worse, totaling -2 yards on nine carries. Jacobs will find more success this week, but TJ Watt will make sure Garoppolo doesn’t.

We would argue that there is no better pass rusher in the NFL than TJ Watt. The linebacker missed much of last season with an injury but posted 22.5 sacks and 21 TFLs in 2021. Watt is on pace to surpass those totals early, as he already has four sacks and 3 TFLs through his first two games. Three of those sacks came against a great Niners offensive line, and we think he will find similar success Sunday, forcing Garoppolo to look over his shoulder all game.

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Raiders Under 22.5 Points (-110)

The Steelers’ run defense has been bad, but so has Radiers’ running back Josh Jacobs. The 25-year-old has 46 rushing yards through their first two games, averaging a measly 1.6 yards per carry. We did see Jacobs face the Steelers in 2022, where he was held to just 44 yards (2.9 YPC). He may up his YPC numbers on Sunday night, but he won’t be able to carry the Raiders to 23+ points.

Garoppolo will get hit a lot more on Sunday night, but the Steelers' pash rush isn’t the only reason. The Steelers have a talented secondary, led by safety Minka Fitzpatrick and cornerback Patrick Peterson. They should be able to contain Adams, which will further rattle his veteran quarterback. 

Considering the Raiders have scored 27 combined points through their first two games, this is an easy leg to add to our parlay.

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Najee Harris Over 51.5 (-105)

The Steelers’ top running back hasn’t posted large yardage totals, but he has been impressive with the ball this season. He is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and has broken out for two runs of over 20 yards. That is impressive, considering it came against the Browns and Niners, whose defenses are among the league's best. The Steelers were forced to abandon the run due to falling behind in their first two games, but that won’t be the case against the Raiders tonight. Expect Harris to see more than 15 carries as the Steelers offense finally wakes up.

The Raiders have been bad against the run this season, which was highlighted last weekend when they allowed the Bills to rush for 183 yards. While Vegas found some success against Harris the previous season but still allowed the 25-year-old to run for 53 yards. We don’t see him having any problem topping that against the Raiders in 2023.

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