The New England Patriots (3-11) are going across the country to face the Denver Broncos (7-7) in a Christmas Eve showdown between AFC foes in NFL Week 16.
The Patriots had a chance to beat the Kansas City Chiefs last week but shot themselves in the foot and ultimately lost by 10. The Broncos, meanwhile, had their worst loss since they allowed the Miami Dolphins to score 70 points a week ago but aren’t totally out of the playoff picture.
We built a same-game parlay for the Patriots vs. Broncos showdown on Christmas Eve in NFL Week 16—let’s see how it looks.
Broncos moneyline
Under 30.5 points
Russell Wilson 1+ passing touchdowns
Ezekiel Elliott 40+ rushing yards
Javonte Williams 40+ rushing yards
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Click our FanDuel promo code for $150 in bonus bets plus daily profit boosts.
The Patriots have the lowest-scoring offense in the league and have only won three games all season. Although the Broncos can be frustrating, they played decent football ever since a 1-5 start and have a winning record at home. We also trust their quarterback and coach more than we do the Patriots.
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This is going to be a low-scoring game played in the cold winter night of Denver, Colorado in possible snow. Expecting a shootout is unwise, and the first team to score 10 points might just be the one that wins the game. New England’s offensive woes are juxtaposed by a defense that held its last six opponents to an average of just over 15 points, which is even more reason to back the under.
Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to place your bets.
Wilson isn’t a dynamic playmaker like he used to be, but he has 24 passing touchdowns, while the entire team combined for only six rushing touchdowns all season. They tend to throw the ball when they’re in the red zone and get some easy looks at the end zone with their play-action. Expect them to take their chances through the air even if they mostly run the ball between the 20s.
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Elliott ran for 40+ yards in four of his last five games and should be in for a large workload with Rhamondre Stevenson seeming unlikely to suit up. The Broncos give up more rushing yards per game than any team in the NFL (146.9), and this style of game sets up well for rushing props more than it does passing props.
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Following the same logic, Williams has a great chance to also get over 40 yards. He cashed this line in seven of his last nine games and should get a hefty workload since he averaged 16.8 carries over his last eight games. The Patriots are second in rushing defense, but Denver is more likely to possess the ball for longer and has the home-field advantage, which is why we’re trusting Williams.
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When: Sunday, Dec. 24 @ 6:15/8:15 p.m. MT/ET
Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
TV: NFL Network
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