To close out the Sunday slate of Week 11 of the NFL season, we have the Kansas City Chiefs on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers.
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Let’s dive in.
The Chargers could have Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back this week. Still, even if they suit up, it’s hard to imagine them being a double-digit target machine right away. Both players are coming off longer-lasting injuries.
If they do suit up, they’ll face a secondary with L’Jarius Sneed, who’s played fantastic this year. Trent McDuffie is also back in the lineup.
As for the Chiefs, their offense has been cookin’. They’re averaging 390 passing yards per game over their previous three and have found new life in the run game.
The Chargers have allowed just over 200 passing yards per game this season, but not many offenses are like the Chiefs, which have many different weapons. Also, the Chargers' secondary, while talented, has struggled on a player-by-player basis.
Mahomes should carve up this Chargers' defense.
We’re not worried about the Chiefs scoring in this one, so we’ll turn our attention to the Chargers. If Williams and Allen suit up, no, they won’t be No. 1 receiving threats immediately. Still, their presence could open up the field for players like Josh Palmer, DeAndre Carter, and running back Austin Ekeler.
The Chiefs allow nearly 250 passing yards and 99 rushing yards per game.
We must recognize quarterback Justin Herbert. He’s played as well as he can given the injuries this year and has just a 1.4% turnover-worthy play percentage—he takes great care of the ball.
On passes of 20+ yards downfield, he’s completed 15 passes for 449 yards and four touchdowns. These passes make up over 10% of his attempts, so with a team in the Chiefs projected to be ahead with a player like Herbert who’s willing to throw downfield when he has his weapons, this one has a good chance of going over.
The Chiefs win this one, 33-24.
The Chiefs have some solid defenders, including their cornerbacks. However, there are still plenty of holes in the back end of the secondary and numerous spots in the front seven.
The Chargers will likely trail often in this game and need to throw to get back into the game.
Herbert, as mentioned, has played as well as possible this year and doesn’t turn the ball over.
If both Williams and Allen suit up, it seems logical to expect at least one of them to be more involved than the other.
With Ekeler out of the backfield and, at the very least, the presence of either of these receivers, this should open up some manageable deep shots for Herbert.
This is a divisional matchup, so getting over 23.5 points for the first time in four games should be possible.
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