Sunday Night Football Picks Week 17: Rookie QBs Daniels, Penix Set for Battle

• QBs Daniels and Penix Jr. were picked second and eighth in the 2024 NFL Draft

• The Commanders are 5-2 on their home field

• Penix Jr. did not throw a touchdown and had an interception in his debut last weekend

The Washington Commanders (10-5) and Atlanta Falcons (8-7) are both deep in the push for the playoffs and will; have a chance to bolster their cases when they meet on Sunday Night Football.

Jayden Daniels and the Commanders will cement their spot in the postseason with a win, while the Falcons entered the weekend tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but ahead on tiebreaker for the NFC South lead.

Daniels and Michael Penix Jr. were both top-eight picks in the recent NFL Draft but are facing more pressure than usual for rookies, adding another layer of intrigue to the matchup.

Here, we will discuss the best Falcons vs. Commanders picks for SNF in Week 17, with odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Place your bets at BetMGM and claim up to $1,500 in bonus bets* with our promo code WSNSPORTS.

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Jayden Daniels Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook) 

The Falcons are 28th in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks per game at 31.5, nearly 1.5 times the league average of 21.3. That’s despite ranking ninth in yards allowed per rush, which shows that their defensive system struggles to deal with mobile quarterbacks.

Daniels carried the rock nine times for 81 yards last week and went over in three of his last four games. This is a win-and-get-in situation, and the Commanders are likely to be aggressive with their play calls in front of their home fans. That should lead to Daniels getting his number called enough times to go over this line.

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Terry McLaurin Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

McLaurin is second in receiving touchdowns and 11th in receiving yards despite being only 17th in receptions, which shows his efficiency with his targets. He went over in three straight games prior to barely missing the over with 60 yards last weekend and is clearly Daniels’ favorite target in the passing game.

The Falcons rank 24th in receiving yards allowed per game to opposing wide receivers (155.2) and 31st in completion percentage allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Daniels threw the ball at least 30 times in six straight games and should get enough reps to help his favorite wide receiver find his way to the over against a porous secondary. 

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Michael Penix Jr. Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+140 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Penix Jr. did not throw a touchdown in his NFL debut against the New York Giants last weekend, but that does not mean that he didn’t impress. He’s also an experienced 24 years old and threw 36 touchdowns and played in a national championship game in college last year, so the primetime stage shouldn't be too much for him to handle mentally.

The Commanders are expected to be without shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore, and they have one of the worst secondaries in the league. Penix Jr. is a strong-armed QB who should be let off the leash with the Falcons’ coaching staff knowing they have to win to bolster their shot at making the playoffs.

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Bijan Robinson Under 82.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Robinson is an excellent back who averaged 79.7 rushing yards per game. He also went over this line in four straight and in six of his last seven games and got at least 22 carries in four straight games.

While the Falcons could lean into the run to help Penix Jr., the Commanders just played against Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles, so they should be as prepared as anybody to stop the run. Their run defense numbers for the year are very poor, but they’ve been solid overall lately excluding a couple of gashing big plays. If they take those away, Robinson could end up under this line.

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