The Los Angeles Rams hold the tiebreaker over Seattle from their win earlier in the year
Chicago’s offensive line ranks near dead last in Off Adjusted Sack Rate and Adjusted Line Yards
Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are both listed as questionable on the Seahawks injury report
With their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, the Seattle Seahawks are in desperate need of securing the win on Thursday night against the lowly Chicago Bears. The Los Angeles Rams currently have a one game lead over Seattle in the NFC West division standings, as well as possess the tiebreaker over them from their win earlier in the year. A wildcard spot is also out of their reach as the Washington Commanders hold the edge in tie breaking scenarios should they end the year with the same record.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Seattle Seahawks | -3.5 (-110) | -190 | Over 43.5 (-110) |
Chicago Bears | +3.5 (-110) | +155 | Under 43.5 (-110) |
Not only does the Bears underwhelming offensive line hurt Caleb Williams ability to sit in the pocket and hit his receivers in stride, but it also lessens the amount of time his pass catchers have to create separation for an explosive play. This may result in more rush attempts for the Bears rookie quarterback while scrambling away from pressure, especially with the Seahawks second level of their defense ranking well below league average in Def Rush Success Rate and Def Adjusted Line Yards.
My Pick: Under 43.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Fortunately for Seattle, the Bears offense may struggle with moving the ball down the field as Caleb Williams will be under constant pressure while throwing into low quality passing lanes. This is due to his offensive line ranking near dead last in pass protection while the Seahawks secondary ranks top-15 in Def Pass DVOA and EPA. Seattle’s pass attack may also sputter against the Bears stout coverage, shading value towards the full game under as both offenses will struggle to get into scoring position.
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Since the start of the season, the Chicago Bears offensive line has given Williams little to no support as they currently rank near dead last in Off Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate. Against the Seahawks, the former number one overall pick will need to extend plays with his legs in order to avoid getting trapped in a collapsing pocket. When on the run, Williams will have the opportunity to churn out sizable gains at a time as the Seahawks rank 22nd in Def Rush Success Rate.
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Not only does throwing on the run while under pressure drastically reduce the quality of Caleb Williams throws, but it also hurts the Bears chances of generating an explosive play. Especially with his pass catchers expected to struggle with creating separation from the Seahawks coverage as their secondary enters the contest ranked above league average in Def Pass DVOA and EPA. Barring a broken play or last second hail mary, expect Williams to stay under this total.
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As for the Seahawks, their best path for success revolves around their ground game as the Bears front seven has severely struggled in their efforts of stopping the run. As of writing, the Bears defense ranks near dead last in Def Rush DVOA and EPA. Calling the run also negates the variance that comes with throwing against heavy coverage when in the shortened field. To pair along with Kenneth Walker, split your bet and put the other half on Zach Charbonnet to score a touchdown as well.
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When: Thursday, December 26th
Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
Where to Watch: Amazon Prime Video
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Seahawks Injuries
RB Kenneth Walker III - Questionable
RB Zach Charbonnet - Questionable
TE Noah Fant - Questionable
C Olu Oluwatimi - Questionable
RT Abraham Lucas - Questionable
DE Leonard Williams - Questionable
LB Ernest Jones IV - Questionable
LB Derick Hall - Questionable
Bears Injuries
LG Teven Jenkins - Questionable
LT Braxton Jones - Out
DT Gervon Dexter Sr - Out
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