Russell Wilson Prop Bets: Is He Ready to Shine Against the Ravens?

• Russell Wilson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in two of his three starts this season.

• The Baltimore defense has allowed 18 passing touchdowns in the team’s last six games.

• Russell Wilson has thrown for at least 260 yards in two of his three starts this season.

It’s only been a few weeks since the Pittsburgh Steelers benched Justin Fields for Russell Wilson. At the time, it was a risky move because things were going well with Fields. But Wilson has made that move pay off, as the Steelers have won all three games that he’s started, taking them to the top of the AFC North. Now that he’s played three games and is about to play in his biggest game as a member of the Steelers, now is a good time to closely examine Wilson’s prop bets for Week 11.

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With this week’s Steelers-Ravens game having massive ramifications in the AFC North, this is the perfect time to check out the latest AFC North odds and get a breakdown of what team holds the edge in that division. We also can’t forget about Mike Tomlin, who made the decision to bench Fields and start Wilson. That decision is one reason why Tomlin has become a serious candidate in the NFL Coach of the Year race.

Russell Wilson Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-123) at Caesars

Expectations are understandable modest for Wilson just three games into his Steelers tenure. He came up short of 200 passing yards in last week’s win over the Commanders. It certainly didn’t help that he only completed 50% of his passes. However, this number is still too low for a quarterback with Wilson’s track record. Keep in mind he threw for over 260 passing yards in each of his first two starts of the season, so there’s no reason he can’t go over 226.5 passing yards this week.

The Baltimore defense is also a critical part of the equation. The Ravens are giving up over 25 points per game and have been torched in the air in recent weeks. In their last six games, rookie Bo Nix is the only quarterback to fall short of 225 passing yards against the Ravens, and he only missed the mark by a few yards. The likes of Joe Burrow, Jameis Winston, and Baker Mayfield have all thrown for over 300 yards against Baltimore over the past month. Even if Wilson doesn’t get to 300 yards, he should easily surpass 226.5 passing yards against Baltimore.

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Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+108) at Caesars

In addition to hermoragging yards in the passing game, the Baltimore defense is also giving up a lot of passing touchdowns. As expected, Nix is the outlier, as he actually caught a touchdown pass but didn’t throw one against the Ravens. But the last five quarterbacks (including Joe Burrow twice) to face the Ravens have combined for 17 passing touchdowns. Each of them have thrown at least two touchdown passes, most more than that.

If you’re feeling extra confident in Wilson, there is plenty of value in betting on Wilson to throw three touchdown passes. After all, he did that last week against the Commanders. However, two touchdown passes from Wilson is a more realistic expectation. Don’t forget the Steelers are at their best when they run the ball. But with six touchdown passes over his three starts, Wilson is in excellent shape to throw multiple touchdown passes against a porous Baltimore pass defense.

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Russell Wilson Longest Passing Completion Over 37.5 Yards (-117) at Caesars

This is something of a tricky prop because the Steelers are more comfortable running the ball and staying conservative on offense. Plus, George Pickens is the only reliable deep threat on the roster. However, given Baltimore’s propensity for giving up large amounts of passing yards, the Ravens are vulnerable in this area. That makes us lean toward Wilson having at least one pass completion that goes for 38 yards or more.

Let’s not forget that Wilson was once one of the best deep-ball passers in the NFL. He’s also connected with Pickens on passes of over 40 yards multiple times since becoming the starter. The Steelers won’t be shy about running the ball and giving Najee Harris 20 carries. But that also means there could be opportunities to catch the Ravens off guard, allowing Wilson to take some deep shots. He and Pickens have had good chemistry the past few weeks, making another long pass play a strong possibility.

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Russell Wilson 2024 Stats

After Week 10, here are Russell Wilson’s current stats:

• Pass Completions: 50

• Pass Attempts: 85

• Completion Percentage: 58.5%

• Passing Yards: 737

• Yards Per Pass: 8.7

• Touchdown Passes: 6

• Interceptions: 1

• Sacks: 8