The 2024 NFL rookie class is ready to make history.
A league-record six quarterbacks were taken in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft as franchises around the league succumbed to the QB-centric nature of the league. While Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye kicked off the top of the draft, they were soon joined by standouts such as Marvin Harrision Jr., Joe Alt, and Malik Nabers, among others.
With the NFL rookie class preparing for its first regular-season campaign, oddsmakers have released a variety of markets that will help answer the question “Who is the best rookie in the NFL?”
Let’s jump into the odds, along with our best bets for each market.
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Williams is stepping into arguably the best situation a first-overall rookie quarterback has ever had the pleasure of entering. He joins up with a team that allowed less than 18 points per game over the final two months of last season and that added a slew of offensive talent, namely Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D’Andre Swift, during the offseason.
No Bears quarterback has ever thrown for more than 3,838 yards in a single season, which puts the franchise record within reach for a player likened to Patrick Mahomes. Williams just needs to average 226 yards per game to beat that line, which should be well within his wheelhouse if his expectations are fair.
Daniels is the most run-ready quarterback in this class and has injury concerns because of his slight frame. That said, he hardly missed any time during an illustrious college career that concluded with him averaging 317.7 passing yards per game and winning the Heisman trophy.
The Washington Commanders turned over their roster more than any team in the NFL during the offseason. They don’t have Super Bowl-caliber weapons but have a few playmakers in the form of Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler, and Jahan Dotson, who will need to help Daniels win this market.
Nix took more snaps at the college level than any other player in NCAA history. He found himself in contention for the Heisman while quarterbacking a great Oregon team, though there’s reason to doubt his ability to thrive at the next level.
The sixth of six first-round quarterbacks may be more ready for Week 1 than his classmates because of his experience—but at the same time, he likely has the lowest ceiling due to the amount of time he needed to play at an elite level in college. Betting him in this market could be a double-edged sword.
McCarthy reaped the rewards of winning the national championship with an undefeated Michigan team, falling to the Vikings at the 10 slot. He’ll link up with former Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson, former Biletnikoff winner Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, and a brilliant offensive mind in Kevin O’Connell.
It’s unclear if and when McCarthy will start over Sam Darnold. The main worry for him is that he was sometimes a passenger on a stacked and run-heavy Michigan team, though he’s also in a system built to bring the best out of quarterbacks and has fantastic weapons at his disposal.
Williams looks like the real deal. His college film proved that he could be a transcendent talent in the NFL, and for the first time in his football life, he won’t need to be the clear-cut best player on his team every time he takes the field.
Chicago did a tremendous job filling out its roster with weapons for its rookie QB. There will be growing pains, but C.J. Stroud just showed that rookie quarterbacks can dominate the rest of the NFL
Most Regular Season Rookie Receiving Yards - Favorites
Marvin Harrison Jr. (+150) at FanDuel
The son of the Hall of Fame wideout Marvin Harrison, Harrison Jr. is, by all accounts, the real deal. The 6-foot-4, 205-pound receiver caught at least 1,200 yards of passes and 14 touchdowns in his sophomore and junior seasons at Ohio State. His best game in 2023 came against then-No. 7 Penn State, during which he caught 11 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown.
Harrison Jr. has the size, speed, and fluidity to become an impact player as soon as he steps on the field. There have been plenty of examples of rookies making resounding impacts in the league recently, whether that be Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, or many other recent selections. The Cardinals wideout can do that, especially as the number-one receiver in the depth chart.
Nabers was the leading receiver on an LSU squad that also featured first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. and Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels. He finished second in the nation with 1,569 yards to go with 89 receptions and 14 touchdowns, earning him the right to the sixth selection in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The 21-year-old and newest member of the New York Giants is explosive both on his routes and with the ball in his hands. His biggest obstacle will be overcoming his own quarterback, Daniel Jones, who averaged just 187 passing yards per game over 22 games in his last two seasons.
The Chargers’ second-round pick is a real-life success story. A former three-star recruit, McConkey turned himself into an elite prospect as part of two national championship-winning Georgia teams. However, he has questions.
The biggest eyesore on McConkey’s resume is his lack of production. He never beat 762 yards and seven touchdowns in a season and only managed 1,687 yards in three seasons—barely ahead of what Nabers did last year alone. That aside, he’s the number-two receiver with a proven quarterback in Justin Herbert waiting to throw him the ball.
The Buffalo Bills replaced the outgoing Stefon Diggs with Coleman, which added immediate pressure to the young rookie ahead of his first professional season. Coleman was the most physical receiver in the draft and is expected to make a living on contested catches, though there are concerns with his speed (only ran 4.61 in the 40-yard dash at the combine).
Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and no longer has his security blanket in Diggs. He may call his own number as a runner rather frequently, but there’s room for Coleman to ascend and become a favorite for one of the league’s most explosive passers.
Most Regular Season Rookie Receiving Yards - Underdog
Xavier Worthy (+1200) at FanDuel
What’s not to love about a first-round, speedy wideout going to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs? Worthy heads to the back-to-back defending champions fresh off a year in which he caught 75 passes for 1,014 yards and five touchdowns for a national semifinalist Texas team.
There’s no doubt that Mahomes will get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Worthy is behind Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, and Marquise Brown in the pecking order, but Rice could miss time if he is suspended, and Kelce is now 34 years old. Don’t be surprised if Worthy and Mahomes link up on a number of deep shots throughout the campaign.
Most Regular Season Rookie Receiving Yards - Our Pick
Xavier Worthy (+1200) at FanDuel
Harrison Jr. has the largest pathway to success due to his spot as the number-one wideout and because his quarterback, Kyler Murray, is better than Daniel Jones. He produced at an elite level in college despite not having a top-flight quarterback in his final year and has the most NFL-ready body of the other prospects.
We predict that it won’t be long before Harrison Jr. ends up in the Pro Bowl and on an All-Pro team. The success of recent rookie wideouts makes us confident in his abilities to win this market for a solid price at +150.
Williams is a generational prospect. He has arm talent, elusiveness, a strong internal clock, and the ability to improvise outside of the pocket. Teaming him up with one of the league’s best receiving trios will allow him the smoothest transition from the NCAA to the NFL possible. He’s also in a division that, despite having great teams, does not have strong pass defenses.
Daniels is in a unique position not just for a rookie, but for a young player in general. The timing of his arrival in the nation’s capital allows him to go down as a franchise and local legend, assuming his professional career hits the same heights his collegiate one did.
Daniels, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, will have his handprints all over the offense of a team that underwent a complete makeover during the offseason. He mostly threw outside the numbers and was quick to run during college, and he’ll need to develop comfortability dominating the middle of the field from the pocket, but he only needs to average 178 yards per game to cash the over.
Nix is listed as the top quarterback on the Broncos’ depth chart, though there isn’t a guarantee he will start every week. Denver brought back Jarrett Stidham and acquired Zach Wilson during the offseason despite drafting Nix 12th overall, ensuring they have plenty of options in that room.
Nix played more college games than any player in NCAA history and should have an easier transition than some of his less-experienced counterparts. At the same time, he doesn’t have the same ceiling as most of his classmates and will be in an unfamiliar position being younger and less experienced than his opponents. The Broncos have a very uninspiring roster and likely won’t give Nix the support needed to hit the over.
Harrison Jr. is going to be a centerpiece for a Cardinals team that is mostly bereft of talent, especially compared to its division rivals. At 6-foot-4 and with elite speed and agility, he’ll run the entire route tree and will add a new dimension to an Arizona offense that was great on the ground but struggled to pass the ball.
When evaluating receiver props, it’s always important to consider their quarterbacks. The jury might still be out on Kyler Murray, but he’s capable of pushing the ball down the field and should feature his new number-one wideout. Expect a strong season from the son of the legend.
Nabers is an elite talent. He racked up 1,569 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns during his junior year at LSU with Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and regularly found himself making plays down the field. His “superpower” is that he can both blow by cornerbacks and become lethal after the catch if a pass hits him in stride.
Our pick is not a reflection of Nabers’ talent or future prospects—instead, it harkens back to what we mentioned about quarterbacks. Daniel Jones’ highest passing yards per game came during his rookie season, and he only managed 151.5 last year. The Giants’ offensive line isn’t great, and without a reliable running threat to distract defenses, we expect his weaknesses to be the story of New York’s season.
The Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, and Detroit Lions led the league in passing yards per game last season—none of them had three receivers exceed 700 receiving yards. That’s an important nugget in this market since Odunze is expected to slot in behind D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen in the team’s passing attack.
Concerns about a rookie quarterback (Caleb Williams) aside, Odunze is a terrific talent. He led the NCAA in receiving yards last year and was one game away from winning a national championship, though none of that changes the fact that there’s only one ball to share amongst an entire team. Odunze has a bright future but should fall under this line.
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Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.
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