The Rams finished the season 9-3 over their last 12 games after starting the season 1-4
Justin Jefferson had 115 receiving yards on eight catches against the Rams earlier this season
Kyren Williams has rushed for over 100 yards three times in his last five games
Wild Card Weekend concludes Monday night, and it’s going to end with what could end up being the best game of the Wild Card round. The Los Angeles Rams will play host to the Minnesota Vikings in a game between old rivals. These two teams were bitter rivals in the 1970s and have actually played seven previous postseason games against one another, although the most recent came in the 1999 playoffs. More recently, the Rams beat the Vikings 30-20 on a Thursday night earlier this season, handing Minnesota one of its three losses on the season. The Vikings now have a chance to avenge that loss while also advancing in the playoffs.
This game features the closest point spread of Wild Card Weekend. It’s also one of two games in which the road team is favored, although the Vikings are barely favorites in a game that is a virtual toss-up. Given Minnesota’s 14-3 record during the regular season, the Vikings have done enough to be road favorites in the opening round of the playoffs. However, the Rams also closed the season strong, winning five in a row before sitting some key starters in Week 18. There are plenty of reasons to believe they can carry that momentum into the playoffs, which is why this game has such tight odds.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
---|---|---|---|
Minnesota Vikings | -1 (-105) | -115 | Over 48 (-110) |
Los Angeles Rams | +1 (-115) | -105 | Under 48 (-110) |
Outside of Stafford and a few other Rams who are dealing with an injury, there won’t be any notable Los Angeles players sitting out this game. On the heels of five straight wins, the Rams will want to maintain their momentum heading into the playoffs, making them a good home underdog to favor. Meanwhile, Seattle’s 6-9-1 record against the spread this season doesn’t make the Seahawks a reliable favorite. It’s also worth noting that the Seahawks have just two road wins against the Rams since they moved back to Los Angeles. With the first game this season between these two teams going to overtime, there’s every reason to expect another close game, giving good value to the Rams +6.5.
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The Vikings have the misfortune of heading into the playoffs following their worst game of the season. In fairness, a road game against the Lions is a huge challenge for any time. However, Minnesota was out-gained by more than 100 yards, struggled in the red zone, and lost 31-9 despite a +2 turnover margin. It was the second time this season the Vikings lost to the Lions, and now they have to avoid losing to the Rams for a second time.
In the first meeting between the Rams and Vikings, Minnesota was in control early and led for large stretches during the first three quarters. Sam Darnold had a good game, largely because the Rams couldn’t stop Justin Jefferson. However, the Vikings failed to run the ball consistently, making it hard to finish strong and close out the game in the fourth quarter. While Minnesota was upset about not getting a call let in the game when Darnold took a safety, the Vikings didn’t have much success for a game-tying drive in the final minutes.
As for the Rams, they were cruising late in the season with five straight wins until deciding to rest Matthew Stafford and a few others in Week 18. Even without Stafford, the Rams only lost 30-25 and nearly scored a late touchdown to win. That performance is a good indication that the Rams should be able to maintain their late-season momentum heading into the playoffs.
The fact that the Rams were in a position to rest players in Week 18 is impressive considering they started the season 1-4. Los Angeles went 9-3 following that dreadful start, including wins over the Vikings and Bills. Despite some lingering flaws on the roster, the Rams possess a strong front seven defensively while surrounding Stafford with some great weapons offensively. That balance should be enough to sneak past the Vikings for a second time.
The Rams didn’t have an answer for Jefferson in the first meeting between these teams. He went off for 115 yards on eight receptions. None of his catches went for more than 27 yards. Jefferson consistently got open and made catches. The Rams don’t have an elite cornerback who they can trust to slow down Jefferson one-on-one, which opens the door for another big game on Monday. Teams have occasionally kept Jefferson under wraps, including the Lions last week. But he’s also racked up more than 90 receiving yards in four of his last six games, including two games in which he went over 130 yards.
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On the season, Stafford had a modest 20 passing touchdowns. Also, in the last three games he’s played, Stafford has stayed below 200 passing yards and has just one total touchdown. However, the Minnesota defense allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL during the regular season, as well as 24 passing touchdowns. More importantly, Stafford threw four touchdown passes the first time he faced the Minnesota defense. That game opened a stretch in which Stafford threw multiple touchdown passes in six of seven games. With a slew of great receiving options around him, Stafford should have no problem spreading the ball around and throwing for a ton of yards and multiple touchdowns against the Vikings for the second time this season.
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The Vikings have been stingy this year when it comes to allowing rushing touchdowns, allowing just 12 in 17 games. But even if he doesn’t make it into the end zone, Williams will be a huge part of the game plan for the Rams. Before sitting out Week 18, Williams rushed for over 80 yards four times in his previous five games, including three games in which he went over 100 yards. The Rams aren’t afraid to give him 20-plus carries in a game. Backup Blake Corum is also hurt, so Williams probably won’t be sharing touches with anyone in the Los Angeles backfield. He’s also a capable pass-catcher who is usually good for a few catches, even if the Rams fall behind and are forced to throw the ball. One way or another, Williams is likely to reach 100 all-purpose yards in this game.
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When: 8:00 PM, EST on Monday, January 13
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
How to Watch: ESPN & ABC
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Rams Injuries
RB Blake Corum (Injured Reserve)
OT Rob Havenstein (Questionable)
LB Troy Reeder (Injured Reserve)
CB Derion Kendrick (Injured Reserve)
CB Tre Tomlinson (Injured Reserve)
Vikings Injuries
QB J.J. McCarthy (Injured Reserve)
LB Pat Jones II (Questionable)
CB Fabian Moreau (Questionable)
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