After allowing 42 points in a win over the Bills, the Rams have held each of their last three opponents below 10 points.
The Seahawks have scored 20 points or less in six of their last nine games.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has amassed at least 69 receiving yards in eight of his last nine games.
The NFL Week 18 schedule includes an NFC West rivalry game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks. Unfortunately, the Rams locked up the division title last week, rendering this game meaningless in the standings, as the Seahawks have been eliminated from playoff contention while the Rams know they will have a home playoff game next week. However, given the rivalry that exists between these two teams, this is still a game worth checking out during the final weekend of the regular season.
Under normal circumstances, the Seahawks would not be this big of a favorite over the Rams. Los Angeles might actually be a slight road favorite if this game still mattered in the standings. However, the Rams have clinched the NFC West and know they will host a playoff game next weekend, so they will be resting some starters in this game, including quarterback Matthew Stafford. That has resulted in the Seahawks being home favorites in this game even though a win won’t be enough to get them into the playoffs.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Rams | +6.5 (-110) | +230 | Over 38.5 (-110) |
Seattle Seahawks | -6.5 (-110) | -280 | Under 38.5 (-110) |
Outside of Stafford and a few other Rams who are dealing with an injury, there won’t be any notable Los Angeles players sitting out this game. On the heels of five straight wins, the Rams will want to maintain their momentum heading into the playoffs, making them a good home underdog to favor. Meanwhile, Seattle’s 6-9-1 record against the spread this season doesn’t make the Seahawks a reliable favorite. It’s also worth noting that the Seahawks have just two road wins against the Rams since they moved back to Los Angeles. With the first game this season between these two teams going to overtime, there’s every reason to expect another close game, giving good value to the Rams +6.5
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With the Rams choosing to rest Stafford, it’ll be Jimmy Garoppolo starting at quarterback. While Garoppolo hasn’t played all season and didn’t have a successful stint with the Raiders last season, he’s a little better than an ordinary backup quarterback. He brings plenty of experience to the table, not to mention a 47-22 record as a starter, including the playoffs. Garoppolo will have something to prove in this game, and more importantly, he’ll have an excellent set of playmakers around him to help.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles defense has been one of the best in the NFL over the last few weeks. Since giving up 42 points to Josh Allen and the Bills, the Rams have held three straight opponents under 10 points. To be fair, they haven’t exactly been challenged by dynamic offensive teams during that stretch. But the Rams have a strong front seven that can control the line of scrimmage and is playing its best football of the season right now.
On the other side, questions need to be asked about the Seattle offense after scoring just six points last week. In fairness, the Seahawks aren’t the first team to struggle offensively on a Thursday night game this season. However, the Seahawks have the third-fewest rushing yards in the NFL this season, relying a lot on Geno Smith’s arm to carry them. They’ve also been held to 20 points or less in six of their last nine games, including their overtime loss to the Rams.
Only scoring 20 points isn’t going to make it easy to cover a 6.5-point spread without a stellar effort from the Seattle defense. Obviously, that unit dominated the Bears last week, holding Chicago to just three points. The Seahawks also enter the final week of the regular season with a top-10 defense. But that unit has also had its share of subpar performances, so there is no guarantee that they’ll be able to contain all of the playmakers on the Los Angeles offense.
At first glance, this feels like a rather low number. However, Charbonnet did fall short of it last week, amassing just 57 yards on 15 carries. But with Kenneth Walker out with an injury, Charbonnet is going to get a majority of the carries for Seattle. His season average is 4.2 yards per carry, and there have been games when he’s out-performed that. This game doesn’t have the look of a high-scoring shootout, which means Charbonnet should get at least 15 carries, probably more. If he can maintain his season average of 4.2 yards per carry, Charbonnet should have no problem reaching 60 rushing yards in this game.
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Obviously, it’s hard to know what to expect from Garoppolo in this game. But the Rams have nothing to lose, so they might go ahead and let him throw the ball and see what happens. With Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and others, the Rams have the types of receivers who can put up big yards through the air, as Stafford averaged 235 passing yards per game. He also went off for 298 passing yards in the first meeting against the Seahawks. Since this is such a low threshold in a game that doesn’t mean much, it’s worth taking a chance on Garoppolo having a good game.
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In his second pro season, Smith-Njigba has turned into Seattle’s biggest threat in the passing game. It helps that teams still view D.K. Metcalf as a big threat because Smith-Njigba has been able to take advantage. Last week’s game with the Bears was an aberration in many ways, as he caught just three passes for 32 yards. Prior to that, Smith-Njigba had eight consecutive games with at least 69 receiving yards, including five games in which he had over 80 yards. Not only is he capable of creating big plays but Smith-Njigba has been targeted a lot during the second half of the season. The Rams don’t have the strongest secondary in the league, so it’s reasonable to expect Smith-Njigba to finish his breakout season on a high.
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When: 4:25 PM, EST on Sunday, January 5
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
How to Watch: Fox
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Rams Injuries
QB Matthew Stafford (Rest)
WR Jordan Whittington (Questionable)
OT Rob Havenstein (Questionable)
LB Troy Reeder (Injured Reserve)
CB Derion Kendrick (Injured Reserve)
CB Tre Tomlinson (Injured Reserve)
S John Johnson III (Injured Reserve)
Seahawks Injuries
RB Kenneth Walker III (Injured Reserve)
OT Abraham Lucas (Questionable)
OT George Fant (Injured Reserve)
DE Byron Murphy II (Questionable)
LB Ernest Jones IV (Questionable)
CB Josh Jobe (Questionable)
Best Sunday Night Football Week 18 Picks
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