Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Matthew Stafford Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-270) at DraftKings
We will take a bit of a value hit for the first prop bet but also look at one that should almost certainly hit—Matthew Stafford under 1.5 passing touchdowns.
This week, he's facing a Ravens team that's among the best defenses in the league, allowing 0.83 passing touchdowns per game. There have been just two quarterbacks to have multiple passing touchdowns in a game against them, which includes Joe Burrow twice and Joshua Dobbs.
The Rams, of course, have Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, but again, the Ravens defense allows around 200 yards passing.
Stafford has been excellent recently, with seven touchdowns in his last two games, but if you look at his game logs before, eight of nine games had one touchdown pass or less.
Look for Stafford to finish with one or less against a stout defense.
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Pick: Keaton Mitchell Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at DraftKings
Keaton Mitchell has come on strong recently for the Baltimore Ravens offense, but here, he’ll be taking on a sneaky good Rams run defense.
On the year, the Rams hold opposing running backs to 87 yards rushing on 20.67 carries per game. However, that’s not all from one rusher.
In fact, since Week 7, there have been just three running backs to crack 50 rushing yards, while others like Zach Charbonnet hit 47 and Kareem Hunt 48.
With Mitchell, the issue will be his number of carries. The Ravens have multiple running backs Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, and even quarterback Lamar Jackson runs.
Mitchell hasn’t broken double-digit carries in a single game this season.
The last running back to have 45 rushing yards against the Rams on double-digit carries, was Emanuel Wilson of the Packers with 43 rushing yards on four carries, but that’s a massive outlier at over 10 yards per carry when the Rams allow an average of 4.21 yards per carry.
Coming out of the bye week, it’ll be intriguing to see if the Ravens pass the gauntlet to Mitchell, but for now, there are too many cooks in the kitchen against a solid run defense.
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Pick: Kyren Wiliams Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-104) at Caesars
Last up, we’ll look at the running back for the Rams, but instead of rushing yards, we’re looking at receiving yards.
Since returning from injured reserve, Williams is involved as if he never left, seeing 22 touches in Week 12 and 24 in Week 13.
In his two games back, he’s had nine catches for 85 yards.
The Ravens defense allows 31.25 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs, and Williams is the primary pass catcher out of the backfield.
With the Ravens as 7.5-point favorites, look for the Rams to be trailing and for Williams to get plenty of dump-off opportunities to try to get some easy yards. A touchdown in this one might be difficult for him, but he should certainly get at least around 20 receiving yards given the matchup and his usage these past two weeks.
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